Dataset Information

CHA2DS2-VASc Score: A Predictor of Thromboembolic Events and Mortality in Patients With an Implantable Monitoring Device Without Atrial Fibrillation.

ABSTRACT: To determine if the CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ?75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, sex category) predicts thromboembolism and death in patients without atrial fibrillation in a population with implantable cardiac monitoring devices.A retrospective review utilizing the Rochester Epidemiology Project research infrastructure was conducted to evaluate the CHA2DS2-VASc tool as a predictor of mortality and ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism in patients without atrial fibrillation. An implantable device was required in the inclusion criteria to discern the absence of atrial fibrillation. The study period was January 1, 2004, through March 7, 2016.The study population (N=1606) had a mean (SD) age of 69.8 (12.6) years and median follow-up of 4.8 years (range, 0-12 years; quartile 1, 2.6 years and quartile 3, 8.1 years). The number of thromboembolic and mortality events stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc score groupings of 0 to 2 (399 patients), 3 to 5 (756 patients), and 6 to 9 (451 patients) were 12 (3.0%), 109 (14.4%), and 123 (27.3%) and 22 (5.5%), 205 (27.1%), and 214 (47.4%), respectively. The CHA2DS2-VASc score predicted thromboembolism and death. The hazard ratios (HRs) for thromboembolic events for CHA2DS2-VASc scores 3 to 5 and 6 to 9 were 4.84 (95% CI, 2.66-8.80) and 10.53 (95% CI, 5.77-19.21) (reference group, scores 0-2). The HRs for death for the corresponding score categories were 4.45 (95% CI, 2.86-6.91) and 8.18 (95% CI, 5.23-12.78). The CHA2DS2-VASc score also predicted development of atrial fibrillation, for which the HRs for scores 3 to 5 and 6 to 9 were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.13-2.00) and 2.17 (95% CI, 1.60-2.95).The CHA2DS2-VASc tool predicts thromboembolic events and overall mortality in patients without atrial fibrillation who have implantable devices.

SUBMITTER: Parsons C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5641434 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc Score: A Predictor of Thromboembolic Events and Mortality in Patients With an Implantable Monitoring Device Without Atrial Fibrillation.

Parsons Christine C Patel Salma I SI Cha Stephen S Shen Win-Kuang WK Desai Santosh S Chamberlain Alanna M AM Luis Sushil Allen SA Aguilar Maria I MI Demaerschalk Bart M BM Mookadam Farouk F Shamoun Fadi F

Mayo Clinic proceedings 20170301 3

<h4>Objective</h4>To determine if the CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, sex category) predicts thromboembolism and death in patients without atrial fibrillation in a population with implantable cardiac monitoring devices.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>A retrospective review utilizing the Rochester Epidemiology Project research infrastructure was ...[more]

PMID: 28259228

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Project description:Background and Purpose- Despite modest predictive ability for ischemic stroke (IS), the CHA2DS2-VASc score is widely used for stroke prediction in atrial fibrillation. Among patients with atrial fibrillation, we aimed to (1) compare the IS or transient ischemic attack (TIA) incidence by CHA2DS2-VASc in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; (2) compare predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score for IS or TIA in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; and (3) determine improvement in predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score from addition of race/ethnicity. Methods- Using data from Optum Clinformatics, a large administrative claims database, we analyzed patients with atrial fibrillation enrolled in commercial and Medicare Advantage health plans from 2009 to 2015. We computed IS or TIA incidence rates, improvement in C statistic, continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement from addition of race/ethnicity to CHA2DS2-VASc. Results- A total of 267 419 patients (mean age, 73.1 [SD, 12.3] years; 46.6% women; 84.2% white, 8.5% black, 7.3% Hispanic) were studied. After a mean follow-up of 22 months, there were 6202 IS or TIA events. IS or TIA incidence rates were higher in blacks than Hispanics or whites (1.65, 1.40, and 1.22 cases per 100 person-years, respectively) and increased with higher CHA2DS2-VASc, with no race/ethnicity-based differences (P for interaction=0.17). The CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VASc+race/ethnicity C statistic (95% CI) were 0.679 (0.670-0.686) and 0.679 (0.671-0.688). The CHA2DS2-VASc C statistic in the 3 groups were comparable. With addition of race/ethnicity, the categorical net reclassification improvement, continuous net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement were -0.045 (95% CI, -0.067 to -0.025), 0.045 (95% CI, 0.025-0.068), and 0.016 (95% CI, 0.014-0.018). Conclusions- The predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc for IS or TIA in atrial fibrillation is comparable among whites, blacks, and Hispanics; hence, it can be used in the latter 2 groups. Addition of race/ethnicity to the CHA2DS2-VASc does not improve its predictive ability.

Project description:BackgroundIn people with atrial fibrillation (AF), periods of sinus rhythm present an opportunity to detect prothrombotic atrial remodeling through measurement of P-wave indices (PWIs)-prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P-wave axis, advanced interatrial block, and abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1. We hypothesized that the addition of PWIs to the CHA2DS2-VASc score would improve its ability to predict AF-related ischemic stroke.MethodsWe included 2229 participants from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and 700 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with incident AF who were not on anticoagulants within 1 year of AF diagnosis. PWIs were obtained from study visit ECGs before development of AF. AF was ascertained using study visit ECGs and hospital records. Ischemic stroke cases were based on physician adjudication of hospital records. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of PWIs for ischemic stroke. Improvement in 1-year stroke prediction was assessed by C-statistic, categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement.ResultsAbnormal P-wave axis was the only PWI associated with increased ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.33-2.55) independent of CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and that resulted in meaningful improvement in stroke prediction. The β estimate was approximately twice that of the CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and thus abnormal P-wave axis was assigned 2 points to create the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc score. This improved the C-statistic (95% CI) from 0.60 (0.51-0.69) to 0.67 (0.60-0.75) in ARIC and 0.68 (0.52-0.84) to 0.75 (0.60-0.91) in MESA (validation cohort). In ARIC and MESA, the categorical net reclassification improvements (95% CI) were 0.25 (0.13-0.39) and 0.51 (0.18-0.86), respectively, and the relative integrated discrimination improvement (95% CI) were 1.19 (0.96-1.44) and 0.82 (0.36-1.39), respectively.ConclusionsAbnormal P-wave axis-an ECG correlate of left atrial abnormality- improves ischemic stroke prediction in AF. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc is a better prediction tool for AF-related ischemic stroke.

Dataset Information

CHA2DS2-VASc Score: A Predictor of Thromboembolic Events and Mortality in Patients With an Implantable Monitoring Device Without Atrial Fibrillation.

Publications

CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc Score: A Predictor of Thromboembolic Events and Mortality in Patients With an Implantable Monitoring Device Without Atrial Fibrillation.

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