Dataset Information

Elderly suicide trends in the context of transforming China, 1987-2014.

ABSTRACT: In the context of rapid ageing, understanding the time-trend of elderly suicide (ES) could inform China's efforts on suicide prevention. We examined time-trends in Chinese ES rates (ESRs) from 1987 to 2014, a period of profound social changes. Suicide rates by residence (rural/urban), gender, and 5-year age-group (65+) in 1987-2014 were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. Time-trends were analyzed with joinpoint analysis. The time-trend of national ESRs was downward (average annual percent change [AAPC] = -3.7, P < 0.001): 76.6/100000 in 1987 and 30.2/100000 in 2014. However, the time-trend of corresponding percentages of ESs among the total suicides was monotonically increasing (AAPC = 3.4, P < 0.001): 16.9% in 1987 to 41.2% in 2014. The time-trends in ESRs of both rural and urban men and women were decreasing, but only the rural trends were significant (P < 0.001). Rural-urban and male-female differences in ESRs were decreasing over time (slope = -4.2 and -3.0, P ≤ 0.006), but the rural-urban and male-female ESR differences in 2014 remained large (16.3/100000 and 9.8/100000, P < 0.001). While national ESRs decreased significantly during the past three decades, the current ESR remains high in China. Further, the age-pattern of Chinese suicide is transitioning to elderly predominance. ES, particularly rural ES, should be a public health priority in China.

SUBMITTER: Zhong BL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5123573 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Elderly suicide trends in the context of transforming China, 1987-2014.

Zhong Bao-Liang BL Chiu Helen F K HF Conwell Yeates Y

Scientific reports 20161125

In the context of rapid ageing, understanding the time-trend of elderly suicide (ES) could inform China's efforts on suicide prevention. We examined time-trends in Chinese ES rates (ESRs) from 1987 to 2014, a period of profound social changes. Suicide rates by residence (rural/urban), gender, and 5-year age-group (65+) in 1987-2014 were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. Time-trends were analyzed with joinpoint analysis. The time-trend of national ESRs was downward (average annual perce ...[more]

PMID: 27886219

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Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate the use of special expedited development and review pathways at the US Food and Drug Administration over the past two decades.DesignCohort study.SettingFDA approved novel therapeutics between 1987 and 2014.PopulationPublicly available sources provided each drug's year of approval, their innovativeness (first in class versus not first in class), World Health Organization Anatomic Therapeutic Classification, and which (if any) of the FDA's four primary expedited development and review programs or designations were associated with each drug: orphan drug, fast track, accelerated approval, and priority review.Main outcome measuresLogistic regression models evaluated trends in the proportion of drugs associated with each of the four expedited development and review programs. To evaluate the number of programs associated with each approved drug over time, Poisson models were employed, with the number of programs as the dependent variable and a linear term for year of approval. The difference in trends was compared between drugs that were first in class and those that were not.ResultsThe FDA approved 774 drugs during the study period, with one third representing first in class agents. Priority review (43%) was the most prevalent of the four programs, with accelerated approval (9%) the least common. There was a significant increase of 2.6% per year in the number of expedited review and approval programs granted to each newly approved agent (incidence rate ratio 1.026, 95% confidence interval 1.017 to 1.035, P<0.001), and a 2.4% increase in the proportion of drugs associated with at least one such program (odds ratio 1.024, 95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.043, P=0.009). Driving this trend was an increase in the proportion of approved, non-first in class drugs associated with at least one program for drugs (P=0.03 for interaction).ConclusionsIn the past two decades, drugs newly approved by the FDA have been associated with an increasing number of expedited development or review programs. Though expedited programs should be strictly limited to drugs providing noticeable clinical advances, this trend is being driven by drugs that are not first in class and thus potentially less innovative.

Project description:Scotland has disproportionately high rates of suicide compared with England. An analysis of trends may help reveal whether rates appear driven more by birth cohort, period or age. A 'birth cohort effect' for England & Wales has been previously reported by Gunnell et al. (B J Psych 182:164-70, 2003). This study replicates this analysis for Scotland, makes comparisons between the countries, and provides information on 'vulnerable' cohorts.Suicide and corresponding general population data were obtained from the National Records of Scotland, 1950 to 2014. Age and gender specific mortality rates were estimated. Age, period and cohort patterns were explored graphically by trend analysis.A pattern was found whereby successive male birth cohorts born after 1940 experienced higher suicide rates, in increasingly younger age groups, echoing findings reported for England & Wales. Young men (aged 20-39) were found to have a marked and statistically significant increase in suicide between those in the 1960 and 1965 birth cohorts. The 1965 cohort peaked in suicide rate aged 35-39, and the subsequent 1970 cohort peaked even younger, aged 25-29; it is possible that these 1965 and 1970 cohorts are at greater mass vulnerability to suicide than earlier cohorts. This was reflected in data for England & Wales, but to a lesser extent. Suicide rates associated with male birth cohorts subsequent to 1975 were less severe, and not statistically significantly different from earlier cohorts, suggestive of an amelioration of any possible influential 'cohort' effect. Scottish female suicide rates for all age groups converged and stabilised over time. Women have not been as affected as men, with less variation in patterns by different birth cohorts and with a much less convincing corresponding pattern suggestive of a 'cohort' effect.Trend analysis is useful in identifying 'vulnerable' cohorts, providing opportunities to develop suicide prevention strategies addressing these cohorts as they age.

Dataset Information

Elderly suicide trends in the context of transforming China, 1987-2014.

Publications

Elderly suicide trends in the context of transforming China, 1987-2014.

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