Dataset Information

A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation.

ABSTRACT: We describe a large-scale simulation of the aftermath of a hypothetical 10kT improvised nuclear detonation at ground level, near the White House in Washington DC. We take a synthetic information approach, where multiple data sets are combined to construct a synthesized representation of the population of the region with accurate demographics, as well as four infrastructures: transportation, healthcare, communication, and power. In this article, we focus on the model of agents and their behavior, which is represented using the options framework. Six different behavioral options are modeled: household reconstitution, evacuation, healthcare-seeking, worry, shelter-seeking, and aiding & assisting others. Agent decision-making takes into account their health status, information about family members, information about the event, and their local environment. We combine these behavioral options into five different behavior models of increasing complexity and do a number of simulations to compare the models.

SUBMITTER: Parikh N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5127398 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation.

Parikh Nidhi N Hayatnagarkar Harshal G HG Beckman Richard J RJ Marathe Madhav V MV Swarup Samarth S

Autonomous agents and multi-agent systems 20160317 6

We describe a large-scale simulation of the aftermath of a hypothetical 10kT improvised nuclear detonation at ground level, near the White House in Washington DC. We take a synthetic information approach, where multiple data sets are combined to construct a synthesized representation of the population of the region with accurate demographics, as well as four infrastructures: transportation, healthcare, communication, and power. In this article, we focus on the model of agents and their behavior, ...[more]

PMID: 27909393

Similar Datasets

Project description:In the possible event of a detonation of an improvised nuclear device (IND), the immediate radiation would consist of both photons (gamma rays) and neutrons. Since neutrons generally have a high relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for most physiological end points, it is important to understand the effect that neutrons would have on the biodosimetry methods that are being developed for medical triage purposes. We previously compared the transcriptomic response in human blood after neutron and photon irradiation. In this study, we analyzed the effect of mixed-field-neutron-photon radiation on gene expression responses in human peripheral blood, to elucidate the neutron contribution in the setting of a radiation exposure from an IND detonation. We used four combinations of mixed neutron-photon exposures, with increasing percentages of neutrons, to a cumulative dose of 3 Gy. The mixed-field exposures consisted of 0%, 5%, 15% and 25% of neutrons, where 0% corresponds to 3 Gy of pure X rays. A maximum neutron exposure, corresponding to 83% neutrons (0.75 Gy) was also used in the study. Increases were observed in both the number and expression level of genes, with increasing percentages of neutrons from 0% to 25% in the mixed-field exposures. Gene ontology analysis showed an overall predominance of TP53 signaling among upregulated genes across all exposures. Some TP53 regulated genes, such as EDA2R, GDF15 and VWCE, demonstrated increased expression with increasing neutron percentages in mixed-field exposures. Immune response, specifically natural-killer-cell mediated signaling, was the most significant biological process associated with downregulated genes. We observed significant suppression of T-cell-mediated signaling in mixed-field exposures, which was absent in the response to pure photons. In this first study investigating gene expression in human blood cells exposed to mixed neutron-photon fields similar to an actual IND explosion, we have identified a number of genes responding to the 3 Gy dose that showed increasing expression as the neutron percentage increased. Such genes may serve as better indicators of the expected biological damage than a report of total physical dose, and thus provide more relevant information for treating physicians.

Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate overdiagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) for screening with sigmoidoscopy and faecal occult blood testing (FOBT).DesignSimulation study using data from randomised trials.SettingPrimary screening, UK, Norway PARTICIPANTS: 152 850 individuals from the Nottingham trial and 98 678 individuals from the Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Prevention (NORCCAP) trial.InterventionCRC screening.Outcome measureWe estimated overdiagnosis using long-term data from two randomised trials: the Nottingham trial comparing FOBT screening every other year to no-screening, and the NORCCAP trial comparing once-only sigmoidoscopy screening to no-screening. To estimate the natural growth of adenomas to CRC, we used the following microsimulation models: (i) the Microsimulation Screening Analysis; (ii) the CRC Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history; (iii) the Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer; (iv) a model derived by the German Cancer Research Center. We defined overdiagnosed cancers as the difference between the observed number of CRCs in the no-screening arm and the expected number of cancers in screening arm (sum of observed and prevented by adenoma removal). The amount of overdiagnosis is defined as the number of overdiagnosed cancers over the number of cancers observed in the no-screening arm.ResultsOverdiagnosis estimates were highly dependent on model assumptions. For FOBT screening with 2354 cancers observed in control arm, four out of five models predicted overdiagnosis, range 2.0% (2400 cancers expected in screening) to 7.6% (2533 cancers expected in screening). For sigmoidoscopy screening with 452 cancers observed in control arm, all models predicted overdiagnosis, range 25.2% (566 cancers expected in screening) to 128.1% (1031 cancers expected in screening).ConclusionsThe amount of overdiagnosis estimated based on the microsimulation models varied substantially. Microsimulation models may not give reliable estimates of the preventive effect of adenoma removal, and should be used with caution to inform guidelines.

Dataset Information

A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation.

Publications

A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure