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Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas.

ABSTRACT: Zika virus (ZIKV) originated and continues to circulate in a sylvatic transmission cycle between non-human primate hosts and arboreal mosquitoes in tropical Africa. Recently ZIKV invaded the Americas, where it poses a threat to human health, especially to pregnant women and their infants. Here we examine the risk that ZIKV will establish a sylvatic cycle in the Americas, focusing on Brazil. We review the natural history of sylvatic ZIKV and present a mathematical dynamic transmission model to assess the probability of establishment of a sylvatic ZIKV transmission cycle in non-human primates and/or other mammals and arboreal mosquito vectors in Brazil. Brazil is home to multiple species of primates and mosquitoes potentially capable of ZIKV transmission, though direct assessment of host competence (ability to mount viremia sufficient to infect a feeding mosquito) and vector competence (ability to become infected with ZIKV and disseminate and transmit upon subsequent feedings) of New World species is lacking. Modeling reveals a high probability of establishment of sylvatic ZIKV across a large range of biologically plausible parameters. Probability of establishment is dependent on host and vector population sizes, host birthrates, and ZIKV force of infection. Research on the host competence of New World monkeys or other small mammals to ZIKV, on vector competence of New World Aedes, Sabethes, and Haemagogus mosquitoes for ZIKV, and on the geographic range of potential New World hosts and vectors is urgently needed. A sylvatic cycle of ZIKV would make future elimination efforts in the Americas practically impossible, and paints a dire picture for the epidemiology of ZIKV and our ability to end the ongoing outbreak of congenital Zika syndrome.

SUBMITTER: Althouse BM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5157942 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV), mainly transmitted in urban areas by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, constitutes a major public health problem. In late 2013, CHIKV emerged on Saint-Martin Island in the Caribbean and spread throughout the region reaching more than 40 countries. Thus far, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have been implicated as the sole vector in the outbreaks, leading to the hypothesis that CHIKV spread could be limited only to regions where this mosquito species is dominant.Methodology/principal findingsWe determined the ability of local populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus from the Americas and Europe to transmit the CHIKV strain of the Asian genotype isolated from Saint-Martin Island (CHIKV_SM) during the recent epidemic, and an East-Central-South African (ECSA) genotype CHIKV strain isolated from La Réunion Island (CHIKV_LR) as a well-characterized control virus. We also evaluated the effect of temperature on transmission of CHIKV_SM by European Ae. albopictus. We found that (i) Aedes aegypti from Saint-Martin Island transmit CHIKV_SM and CHIKV_LR with similar efficiency, (ii) Ae. aegypti from the Americas display similar transmission efficiency for CHIKV_SM, (iii) American and European populations of the alternative vector species Ae. albopictus were as competent as Ae. aegypti populations with respect to transmission of CHIKV_SM and (iv) exposure of European Ae. albopictus to low temperatures (20°C) significantly reduced the transmission potential for CHIKV_SM.Conclusions/significanceCHIKV strains belonging to the ECSA genotype could also have initiated local transmission in the new world. Additionally, the ongoing CHIKV outbreak in the Americas could potentially spread throughout Ae. aegypti- and Ae. albopictus-infested regions of the Americas with possible imported cases of CHIKV to Ae. albopictus-infested regions in Europe. Colder temperatures may decrease the local transmission of CHIKV_SM by European Ae. albopictus, potentially explaining the lack of autochthonous transmission of CHIKV_SM in Europe despite the hundreds of imported CHIKV cases returning from the Caribbean.

Project description:BackgroundMosquito-borne and sexually transmitted Zika virus has become widespread across Central and South America and the Caribbean. Many Zika vaccine candidates are under active development.ObjectiveTo quantify the effect of Zika vaccine prioritization of females aged 9 to 49 years, followed by males aged 9 to 49 years, on incidence of prenatal Zika infections.DesignA compartmental model of Zika transmission between mosquitoes and humans was developed and calibrated to empirical estimates of country-specific mosquito density. Mosquitoes were stratified into susceptible, exposed, and infected groups; humans were stratified into susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and vaccinated groups. Age-specific fertility rates, Zika sexual transmission, and country-specific demographics were incorporated.Setting34 countries and territories in the Americas with documented Zika outbreaks.Target populationMales and females aged 9 to 49 years.InterventionAge- and sex-targeted immunization using a Zika vaccine with 75% efficacy.MeasurementsAnnual prenatal Zika infections.ResultsFor a base-case vaccine efficacy of 75% and vaccination coverage of 90%, immunizing females aged 9 to 49 years (the World Health Organization target population) would reduce the incidence of prenatal infections by at least 94%, depending on the country-specific Zika attack rate. In regions where an outbreak is not expected for at least 10 years, vaccination of women aged 15 to 29 years is more efficient than that of women aged 30 years or older.LimitationPopulation-level modeling may not capture all local and neighborhood-level heterogeneity in mosquito abundance or Zika incidence.ConclusionA Zika vaccine of moderate to high efficacy may virtually eliminate prenatal infections through a combination of direct protection and transmission reduction. Efficiency of age-specific targeting of Zika vaccination depends on the timing of future outbreaks.Primary funding sourceNational Institutes of Health.

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Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas.

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