Data-driven outbreak forecasting with a simple nonlinear growth model.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lega J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5159251 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Data-driven outbreak forecasting with a simple nonlinear growth model.
Lega Joceline J Brown Heidi E HE
Epidemics 20161011
Recent events have thrown the spotlight on infectious disease outbreak response. We developed a data-driven method, EpiGro, which can be applied to cumulative case reports to estimate the order of magnitude of the duration, peak and ultimate size of an ongoing outbreak. It is based on a surprisingly simple mathematical property of many epidemiological data sets, does not require knowledge or estimation of disease transmission parameters, is robust to noise and to small data sets, and runs quickl ...[more]
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