Dataset Information

Forecasting the prevalence of COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks.

ABSTRACT: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a new Coronavirus, with first reported human infections in late 2019. COVID-19 has been officially declared as a universal pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-2019 have not been completely understood yet. More than 200,000 persons were killed during this epidemic (till 1 May 2020). Therefore, developing forecasting models to predict the spread of that epidemic is a critical issue. In this study, statistical and artificial intelligence based approaches have been proposed to model and forecast the prevalence of this epidemic in Egypt. These approaches are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks (NARANN). The official data reported by The Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population of COVID-19 cases in the period between 1 March and 10 May 2020 was used to train the models. The forecasted cases showed a good agreement with officially reported cases. The obtained results of this study may help the Egyptian decision-makers to put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.

SUBMITTER: Saba AI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7237379 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting the prevalence of COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks.

Saba Amal I AI Elsheikh Ammar H AH

Process safety and environmental protection : transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers, Part B 20200520

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a new Coronavirus, with first reported human infections in late 2019. COVID-19 has been officially declared as a universal pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-2019 have not been completely understood yet. More than 200,000 persons were killed during this epidemic (till 1 May 2020). Therefore, developing forecasting models to predict the spread of that epidemic is a critical issue. In this study, statistical and ar ...[more]

PMID: 32501368

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Dataset Information

Forecasting the prevalence of COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks.

Publications

Forecasting the prevalence of COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks.

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