Dataset Information

Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves.

ABSTRACT: Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Here, we use an urban climate emulator combined with large ensemble global climate simulations to show that, at the urban scale a large proportion of the variability results from the model structural uncertainty in projecting UHWs in the coming decades under climate change. Omission of this uncertainty would considerably underestimate the risk of UHW. Results show that, for cities in four high-stake regions - the Great Lakes of North America, Southern Europe, Central India, and North China - a virtually unlikely (0.01% probability) UHW projected by single-model ensembles is estimated by our model with probabilities of 23.73%, 4.24%, 1.56%, and 14.76% respectively in 2061-2070 under a high-emission scenario. Our findings suggest that for urban-scale extremes, policymakers and stakeholders will have to plan for larger uncertainties than what a single model predicts if decisions are informed based on urban climate simulations.

SUBMITTER: Zheng Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8213750 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves.

Zheng Zhonghua Z Zhao Lei L Oleson Keith W KW

Nature communications 20210618 1

Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Here, we use an urban climate emulator combined with large ensemble global climate simulations to show that, at the urban scale a large proportion of the variability results from the model structural uncertainty in projecting UHWs in the coming decades under climate change. Omission of this uncertainty would considerably underestimate the risk of UHW. Results show that, for cities in four high-stake regions - the Great L ...[more]

PMID: 34145293

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Project description:Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.

Dataset Information

Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves.

Publications

Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves.

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