Dataset Information

Recent time trends in incidence, outcome and premorbid treatment of atrial fibrillation-related stroke and other embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing, due partly to the ageing population. The Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Treatment of the Aged (BAFTA) Trial, published in 2007, provided strong evidence of the effectiveness of warfarin at age?80?years, but the impact on incidence of AF-related stroke and peripheral embolic vascular events is uncertain. METHODS:We studied age-specific incidence and outcome of all AF-related incident strokes and systemic emboli from 2002 to 2012 in the Oxford Vascular Study. RESULTS:Of 3096 acute cerebral or peripheral vascular events, 748 (24.2%) were AF-related. Of the 597 disabling/fatal incident ischaemic strokes, 369 occurred at age ?80?years, of which 124 (33.6%) were in non-anticoagulated patients with known prior AF. There was no reduction in incident AF-related events after 2007 at all ages (n=231 vs 211; adjusted RR=1.11, 0.91 to 1.36, p=0.29) or at age ?80 (137 vs 135, RR=1.15, 0.94 to 1.40, p=0.17). Scope for improved prevention at older ages was considerable. Among 208 patients with incident AF-related events at age ?80 and known prior AF, only 19 (9.1%) were anticoagulated. Of the 189 patients not anticoagulated, 166 (87.8%) had no major disability prior to the event and 167 (88·4%) had a high embolism risk score, of whom 139 (83.2%) were also at low risk of complications. Yet, 125/167 (74.9%) were dead or institutionalised after the event. Potentially preventable embolic events outnumbered warfarin-related intracerebral haemorrhages by about 15-fold (280 vs 19), rising to 50-fold (189 vs 4) at age ?80?years. CONCLUSIONS:We found no reduction in incidence of AF-related vascular events since publication of the BAFTA trial. A third of all disabling/fatal strokes occur in non-anticoagulated patients with known prior AF.

SUBMITTER: Yiin GS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5256147 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Recent time trends in incidence, outcome and premorbid treatment of atrial fibrillation-related stroke and other embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

Yiin Gabriel S C GS Howard Dominic P J DP Paul Nicola L M NL Li Linxin L Mehta Ziyah Z Rothwell Peter M PM

Journal of neurology, neurosurgery, and psychiatry 20151020 1

<h4>Background</h4>Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing, due partly to the ageing population. The Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Treatment of the Aged (BAFTA) Trial, published in 2007, provided strong evidence of the effectiveness of warfarin at age≥80 years, but the impact on incidence of AF-related stroke and peripheral embolic vascular events is uncertain.<h4>Methods</h4>We studied age-specific incidence and outcome of all AF-related incident strokes and systemic emboli from 2 ...[more]

PMID: 26487646

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background and Purpose- It is unclear whether atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) newly diagnosed after ischemic stroke represents a preexisting risk factor that led to stroke, an arrhythmia triggered by poststroke autonomic dysfunction, or an incidental finding. Methods- We compared AF incidence after hospitalizations for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and nonstroke conditions using inpatient and outpatient claims between 2008 and 2015 from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries. We used validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification ( ICD-9-CM) codes to identify AF-free patients hospitalized with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke and matched them in a 1:1 ratio by age, sex, race, calendar year, vascular risk factors, and Charlson comorbidities. We then matched the combined stroke cohort in a 1:1 ratio to patients hospitalized for nonstroke diagnoses. We used survival statistics and Cox regression to compare postdischarge AF incidence among groups. Results- We matched 2580 patients with ischemic stroke, 2580 with hemorrhagic stroke, and 5160 patients with other conditions. The annual postdischarge AF incidence was 3.4% (95% CI, 3.1%-3.7%) after ischemic stroke, 2.2% (95% CI, 1.9%-2.4%) after hemorrhagic stroke, and 2.9% (95% CI, 2.6%-3.1%) after nonstroke hospitalization. Ischemic stroke was associated with a somewhat higher risk of AF than hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8) or nonstroke conditions (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3). The latter association attenuated in sensitivity analyses limiting the outcome to AF diagnoses made by cardiologists (hazard ratio, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8-1.5) or limiting the outcome to a minimum of 2 AF claims on separate dates (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.5; P=0.09). Conclusions- New diagnoses of AF were more common after hospitalization for ischemic stroke than after hospitalization for hemorrhagic stroke or nonstroke conditions, but all hospitalized patients had a substantial incidence of new AF diagnoses after discharge and differences were attenuated when using more stringent definitions.

Project description:ObjectivePrevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is challenging. The advent of safer anticoagulation in the form of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has prompted exploration of prophylactic anticoagulation for all ESUS patients, rather than anticoagulating just those with documented atrial fibrillation (AF). However, recent trials have failed to demonstrate a clinical benefit, while observing increased bleeding. We modeled the economic impact of anticoagulating ESUS patients without documented AF across multiple geographies.MethodsCRYSTAL-AF trial data were used to assess ischaemic stroke event rates in ESUS patients confirmed AF-free after long-term monitoring. Anticipated bleeding event rates (including both minor and major bleeds) with aspirin, dabigatran 150 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg were sourced from published meta-analyses, whilst a 30% ischaemic stroke reduction for both DOACs was assumed. Cost data for clinical events and pharmaceuticals were collected from the local payer perspective.ResultsCompared with aspirin, dabigatran and rivaroxaban resulted in 17.9 and 29.9 additional bleeding events per 100 patients over a patient's lifetime, respectively. Despite incorporating into our model the proposed 30% reduction in ischaemic stroke risk, both DOACs were cost-additive over patient lifetime, as the costs of bleeding events and pharmaceuticals outweighed cost savings associated with the reduction in ischaemic strokes. DOACs added £5953-£7018 per patient (UK), €6683-€7368 (Netherlands), €4933-€9378 (Spain), AUD$5353-6539 (Australia) and $26,768-$32,259 (US) of payer cost depending on the agent prescribed. Additionally, in the U.S. patient pharmacy co-payments ranged from $2468-$12,844 depending on agent and patient plan. In all settings, cost-savings could not be demonstrated even when the modelling assumed 100% protection from recurrent ischaemic strokes, due to the very low underlying risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke in this population (1.27 per 100 patient-years).ConclusionsAnticoagulation of non-AF patients may cause excess bleeds and add substantial costs for uncertain benefits, suggesting a personalised approach to anticoagulation in ESUS patients.

Dataset Information

Recent time trends in incidence, outcome and premorbid treatment of atrial fibrillation-related stroke and other embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

Publications

Recent time trends in incidence, outcome and premorbid treatment of atrial fibrillation-related stroke and other embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets