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Age-specific incidence, outcome, cost, and projected future burden of atrial fibrillation-related embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

ABSTRACT: Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is >10% at age ?80 years, but the impact of population aging on rates of AF-related ischemic events is uncertain.We studied age-specific incidence, outcome, and cost of all AF-related incident strokes and systemic emboli from 2002 to 2012 in the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC). We determined time trends in incidence of AF-related stroke in comparison with a sister study in 1981 to 1986, extrapolated numbers to the UK population and projected future numbers. Of 3096 acute cerebral or peripheral vascular events in the 92 728 study population, 383 incident ischemic strokes and 71 systemic emboli were related to AF, of which 272 (59.9%) occurred at ?80 years. Of 597 fatal or disabling incident ischemic strokes, 262 (43.9%) were AF-related. Numbers of AF-related ischemic strokes at age ?80 years increased nearly 3-fold from 1981-1986 to 2002-2012 (extrapolated to the United Kingdom: 6621 to 18 176 per year), due partly to increased age-specific incidence (relative rate 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.31-1.77, P=0.001), with potentially preventable AF-related events at age ?80 years costing the United Kingdom £374 million per year. At current incidence rates, numbers of AF-related embolic events at age ?80 years will treble again by 2050 (72 974/year), with 83.5% of all events occurring in this age group.Numbers of AF-related incident ischemic strokes at age ?80 years have trebled over the last 25 years, despite the introduction of anticoagulants, and are projected to treble again by 2050, along with the numbers of systemic emboli. Improved prevention in older people with AF should be a major public health priority.

SUBMITTER: Yiin GS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5384634 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Age-specific incidence, outcome, cost, and projected future burden of atrial fibrillation-related embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

Yiin Gabriel S C GS Howard Dominic P J DP Paul Nicola L M NL Li Linxin L Luengo-Fernandez Ramon R Bull Linda M LM Welch Sarah J V SJ Gutnikov Sergei A SA Mehta Ziyah Z Rothwell Peter M PM

Circulation 20140910 15

<h4>Background</h4>Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is >10% at age ≥80 years, but the impact of population aging on rates of AF-related ischemic events is uncertain.<h4>Methods and results</h4>We studied age-specific incidence, outcome, and cost of all AF-related incident strokes and systemic emboli from 2002 to 2012 in the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC). We determined time trends in incidence of AF-related stroke in comparison with a sister study in 1981 to 1986, extrapolated numbers to t ...[more]

PMID: 25208551

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Project description:ObjectivePrevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is challenging. The advent of safer anticoagulation in the form of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has prompted exploration of prophylactic anticoagulation for all ESUS patients, rather than anticoagulating just those with documented atrial fibrillation (AF). However, recent trials have failed to demonstrate a clinical benefit, while observing increased bleeding. We modeled the economic impact of anticoagulating ESUS patients without documented AF across multiple geographies.MethodsCRYSTAL-AF trial data were used to assess ischaemic stroke event rates in ESUS patients confirmed AF-free after long-term monitoring. Anticipated bleeding event rates (including both minor and major bleeds) with aspirin, dabigatran 150 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg were sourced from published meta-analyses, whilst a 30% ischaemic stroke reduction for both DOACs was assumed. Cost data for clinical events and pharmaceuticals were collected from the local payer perspective.ResultsCompared with aspirin, dabigatran and rivaroxaban resulted in 17.9 and 29.9 additional bleeding events per 100 patients over a patient's lifetime, respectively. Despite incorporating into our model the proposed 30% reduction in ischaemic stroke risk, both DOACs were cost-additive over patient lifetime, as the costs of bleeding events and pharmaceuticals outweighed cost savings associated with the reduction in ischaemic strokes. DOACs added £5953-£7018 per patient (UK), €6683-€7368 (Netherlands), €4933-€9378 (Spain), AUD$5353-6539 (Australia) and $26,768-$32,259 (US) of payer cost depending on the agent prescribed. Additionally, in the U.S. patient pharmacy co-payments ranged from $2468-$12,844 depending on agent and patient plan. In all settings, cost-savings could not be demonstrated even when the modelling assumed 100% protection from recurrent ischaemic strokes, due to the very low underlying risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke in this population (1.27 per 100 patient-years).ConclusionsAnticoagulation of non-AF patients may cause excess bleeds and add substantial costs for uncertain benefits, suggesting a personalised approach to anticoagulation in ESUS patients.

Project description:Rationale, aims, and objectivesSeveral novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are licensed for atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment in the United Kingdom. We describe the incidence and mortality from ischaemic stroke and major bleeding in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients in England, including treatment patterns before/following introduction of NOACs, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and costs post-onset of these events.MethodData were extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care and Office for National Statistics mortality data.ResultsOf 42 966 patients with a first AF record between 2011 and 2016, 9143 patients (21.3%) remained without AF (antiplatelets/antithrombotics) treatment post-index diagnosis. The proportion of patients receiving aspirin for ≥3 months post-index declined during the study (50.6%-5.5%), irrespective of CHA2 DS2 -VASc score, while the proportion prescribed NOACs increased (2.0%-70.1%). Rates of ischaemic stroke per 1000 patient-years (95% CI) were 9.4 (3.8-15.0) with NOACs, 10.4 (8.0-12.9) with warfarin, 20.1 (16.4-23.8) with aspirin, 21.3 (5.3-37.2) with other antiplatelets and 43.6 (39.3-47.8) in patients without AF prescription. Major bleeding occurred at a similar rate with different treatments. All-cause mortality rates were 42.8 (31.4-54.3) with NOACs, 46.3 (41.1-51.5) with warfarin, 56.5 (50.5-62.4) with aspirin, 102.2 (76.2-128.3) with other antiplatelets and 412.8 (399.6-426.0) with no AF prescription. Mean annual National Health Service healthcare costs up to 1 year post-index were lowest in patients receiving aspirin plus other antiplatelets without an event (£6152), and highest in patients with an event without AF prescriptions (£17 957). By extrapolation, national AF HRU in the United Kingdom in 2016 was estimated at £8-16 billion annually.ConclusionsThese data provide temporal insights into AF treatment patterns and outcomes for NVAF patients in England and highlight the need to review higher stroke risk AF patients not receiving antiplatelet/antithrombotic prescriptions.

Dataset Information

Age-specific incidence, outcome, cost, and projected future burden of atrial fibrillation-related embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

Publications

Age-specific incidence, outcome, cost, and projected future burden of atrial fibrillation-related embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

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