Dataset Information

Dynamic models for estimating the effect of HAART on CD4 in observational studies: Application to the Aquitaine Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has proved efficient in increasing CD4 counts in many randomized clinical trials. Because randomized trials have some limitations (e.g., short duration, highly selected subjects), it is interesting to assess the effect of treatments using observational studies. This is challenging because treatment is started preferentially in subjects with severe conditions. This general problem had been treated using Marginal Structural Models (MSM) relying on the counterfactual formulation. Another approach to causality is based on dynamical models. We present three discrete-time dynamic models based on linear increments models (LIM): the first one based on one difference equation for CD4 counts, the second with an equilibrium point, and the third based on a system of two difference equations, which allows jointly modeling CD4 counts and viral load. We also consider continuous-time models based on ordinary differential equations with non-linear mixed effects (ODE-NLME). These mechanistic models allow incorporating biological knowledge when available, which leads to increased statistical evidence for detecting treatment effect. Because inference in ODE-NLME is numerically challenging and requires specific methods and softwares, LIM are a valuable intermediary option in terms of consistency, precision, and complexity. We compare the different approaches in simulation and in illustration on the ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

SUBMITTER: Prague M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5269533 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dynamic models for estimating the effect of HAART on CD4 in observational studies: Application to the Aquitaine Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Prague Mélanie M Commenges Daniel D Gran Jon Michael JM Ledergerber Bruno B Young Jim J Furrer Hansjakob H Thiébaut Rodolphe R

Biometrics 20160726 1

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has proved efficient in increasing CD4 counts in many randomized clinical trials. Because randomized trials have some limitations (e.g., short duration, highly selected subjects), it is interesting to assess the effect of treatments using observational studies. This is challenging because treatment is started preferentially in subjects with severe conditions. This general problem had been treated using Marginal Structural Models (MSM) relying on the c ...[more]

PMID: 27461460

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Project description:BackgroundPregnant individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are at increased risk of severe disease, prematurity, and stillbirth. In March 2021, vaccination for at risk pregnant women was recommended in Switzerland, expanding this to all pregnant women in May 2021. Our aim was to assess the safety of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in pregnancy.MethodsThis multicentre prospective cohort study describes early adverse events and perinatal outcomes in pregnant women who received at least one dose of mRNA vaccine between March 1st and December 27th, 2021 in Switzerland, using the COVI-PREG registry. Early adverse events were collected at least one month following vaccine administration. Pregnancy and neonatal outcomes were extracted from medical records using the maternity discharge letters providing follow-up information up to 5 days after birth.FindingsOf 1012 vaccinated women, 894 (88·3%) received both injections during pregnancy, with BNT162b2 (n = 271) or mRNA-1273 (n = 623) vaccines. Local events (mainly local pain) were reported in 81·3% and 80·5% after the first and second doses. Rates of systemic reactions (mainly fatigue and headache) were similar after the first dose and most frequent after the second dose of mRNA-1273. Of the 1012 women, four (0·4%; 95%CI [0·1-1·0]) severe early adverse events occurred: pulmonary embolism, preterm premature rupture of membranes, isolated fever with hospitalisation, and herpes zoster. Of 107 patients vaccinated before 14 weeks, one (0·9%; 95%CI [0·0-5·1]) early spontaneous abortions was reported (8 weeks). Of 228 vaccinated before 20 weeks one (0·4%; 95%CI [0·0-2·4]) late spontaneous abortion was reported (16 weeks). Of 513 women exposed before 37 weeks, 33 (6·4%; 95%CI [4·5-8·9]) delivered preterm. Among 530 patients exposed in pregnancy, no stillbirth was reported and 25 (4·7%; 95%CI [3·0-6·8]) neonates were admitted to intensive care unit.InterpretationFrequent local and systemic effects were described after exposure to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines during pregnancy but severe events were rare. Women vaccinated during pregnancy did not experience higher adverse pregnancy or neonatal outcomes when compared to historical data on background risks in the obstetric population.FundingThis research was funded by a grant from the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health and the CHUV Foundation.

Dataset Information

Dynamic models for estimating the effect of HAART on CD4 in observational studies: Application to the Aquitaine Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Publications

Dynamic models for estimating the effect of HAART on CD4 in observational studies: Application to the Aquitaine Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

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