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Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.

ABSTRACT: Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology and rodent behavior driven by the rainy seasons.

SUBMITTER: Tian H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5302841 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.

Tian Huaiyu H Yu Pengbo P Bjørnstad Ottar N ON Cazelles Bernard B Yang Jing J Tan Hua H Huang Shanqian S Cui Yujun Y Dong Lu L Ma Chaofeng C Ma Changan C Zhou Sen S Laine Marko M Wu Xiaoxu X Zhang Yanyun Y Wang Jingjun J Yang Ruifu R Stenseth Nils Chr NC Xu Bing B

PLoS pathogens 20170131 1

Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was c ...[more]

PMID: 28141833

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Project description:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused mainly by two hantaviruses in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus. Environmental factors can significantly affect the risk of contracting hantavirus infections, primarily through their effects on rodent population dynamics and human-rodent contact. We aimed to clarify the environmental risk factors favoring rodent-to-human transmission to provide scientific evidence for developing effective HFRS prevention and control strategies. The 10-year (2006-2015) field surveillance data from the rodent hosts for hantavirus, the epidemiological and environmental data extracted from satellite images and meteorological stations, rodent-to-human transmission rates and impacts of the environment on rodent community composition were used to quantify the relationships among environmental factors, rodent species and HFRS occurrence. The study included 709 cases of HFRS. Rodent species in Chenzhou, a hantavirus hotspot, comprise mainly Rattus norvegicus, Mus musculus, R. flavipectus and some other species (R. losea and Microtus fortis calamorum). The rodent species played different roles across the various land types we examined, but all of them were associated with transmission risks. Some species were associated with HFRS occurrence risk in forest and water bodies. R. norvegicus and R. flavipectus were associated with risk of HFRS incidence in grassland, whereas M. musculus and R. flavipectus were associated with this risk in built-on land. The rodent community composition was also associated with environmental variability. The predictive risk models based on these significant factors were validated by a good-fit model, where: cultivated land was predicted to represent the highest risk for HFRS incidence, which accords with the statistics for HFRS cases in 2014-2015. The spatial heterogeneity of HFRS disease may be influenced by rodent community composition, which is associated with local environmental conditions. Therefore, future work should focus on preventing HFRS is moist, warm environments.

Dataset Information

Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.

Publications

Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.

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