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Prediction of Mortality and Postoperative Complications using the Hip-Multidimensional Frailty Score in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture.

ABSTRACT: High mortality and dependent living after hip fracture pose a significant public health concern. Retrospective study was conducted with 481 hip fracture patients (?65 years of age) undergoing surgery from March 2009 to May 2014. The Hip-MFS was calculated by Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA). The primary outcome was the 6-month all-cause mortality rate. The secondary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, postoperative complications and prolonged hospital stay, and institutionalization. Thirty-five patients (7.3%) died within 6 months after surgery (median [interquartile range], 2.9 [1.4-3.9] months). The fully adjusted hazard ratio per 1 point increase in Hip-MFS was 1.458 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.210-1.758) for 6-months mortality and odds ratio were 1.239 (95% CI: 1.115-1.377), 1.156 (95% CI: 1.031-1.296) for postoperative complications and prolonged total hospital stay, respectively. High-risk patients (Hip-MFS?>?8) showed higher risk of 6-month mortality (hazard ratio: 3.545, 95% CI: 1.466-8.572) than low-risk patients after adjustment. Hip-MFS successfully predict 6-month mortality, postoperative complications and prolonged hospital stay in elderly hip fracture patients after surgery. Hip-MFS more precisely predict 6-month mortality than age or existing tools (P values of comparison of ROC curve: 0.002, 0.004, and 0.044 for the ASA classification, age and NHFS, respectively).

SUBMITTER: Choi JY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5324046 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of Mortality and Postoperative Complications using the Hip-Multidimensional Frailty Score in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture.

Choi Jung-Yeon JY Cho Kwan-Jae KJ Kim Sun-Wook SW Yoon Sol-Ji SJ Kang Min-Gu MG Kim Kwang-Il KI Lee Young-Kyun YK Koo Kyung-Hoi KH Kim Cheol-Ho CH

Scientific reports 20170224

High mortality and dependent living after hip fracture pose a significant public health concern. Retrospective study was conducted with 481 hip fracture patients (≥65 years of age) undergoing surgery from March 2009 to May 2014. The Hip-MFS was calculated by Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA). The primary outcome was the 6-month all-cause mortality rate. The secondary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, postoperative complications and prolonged hospital stay, and institutionalization ...[more]

PMID: 28233870

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Project description:IntroductionPostoperative delirium is a common complication of patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or arthroplasty and is related to decreased survival time and physical function. In this study, we aim to build and validate a prediction score of postoperative delirium in geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or hip arthroplasty.MethodsA retrospective cohort of geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or hip arthroplasty was established. Variables of included patients were collected as candidate predictors of postoperative delirium. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and logistic regression were used to derive a predictive score for postoperative delirium. The accuracy of the score was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC). We used bootstrapping resamples for model calibration. The prediction score was validated in an extra cohort.ResultsThere were 1,312 patients in the derivation cohort, and the incidence of postoperative delirium was 14.33%. Of 40 variables, 9 were identified as predictors, including preoperative delirium, cerebrovascular accident (CVA) with the modified Rankin scale, diabetes with a random glucose level, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), age, application of benzodiazepines in surgery, surgical delay ≥2 days, creatine ≥90 μmol/L, and active smoker. The prediction score achieved a mean AUC of 0.848 in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort, the mean AUC was 0.833. The prediction model was well-calibrated in the two cohorts.ConclusionBased on retrospective data, a prediction score for postoperative delirium in geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or hip arthroplasty was derived and validated. The performance of the scoring system outperformed the models from previous studies. Although the generalization ability of the score needs to be tested in similar populations, the scoring system will enable delirium risk stratification for hip fracture patients and facilitate the development of strategies for delirium prevention.

Project description:PurposeThe 30-day mortality rate after hip fracture surgery has been considered as an indirect indicator of the quality of care. The aim of this work is to analyse preoperative and postoperative factors potentially related to early 30-day mortality in patients over 65 undergoing hip fracture surgery.MethodsProspective cohort study including all consecutive primary hip fracture patients over 65 admitted to Trauma and Orthopaedics department from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2019. Bed-ridden, non- surgically treated patients, and high energy trauma or tumoral aetiology fractures were excluded. A total of 943 patients were eligible (attrition rate: 2.1%). Follow-up included 30-days after discharge. We noted the 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery, analysing 130 potentially related variables including biodemographic, fracture-related, preoperative, and postoperative clinical factors. Qualitative variables were assessed by χ2, and quantitative variables by non-parametric tests. Odds ratio determined by binary logistic regression. We selected preventable candidate variables for multivariate risk assessment by logistic regression.ResultsA total of 923 patients were enrolled (mean age 86.22±6.8, 72.9% women). The 30-day mortality rate was 6.0%. We noted significant increased mortality on men (OR = 2.381[1.371-4.136], p = 0.002), ageing patients (ORyear = 1.073[1.025-1.122], p = 0.002), and longer time to surgery (ORday = 1.183[1.039-1146], p<0.001), on other 20 preoperative clinical variables, like lymphopenia (lymphocyte count <103/μl, OR = 1.842[1.063-3.191], p = 0.029), hypoalbuminemia (≤3.5g/dl, OR = 2.474[1.316-4.643], p = 0.005), and oral anticoagulant intake (OR = 2.499[1.415-4.415], p = 0.002), and on 25 postoperative clinical variables, like arrhythmia (OR = 13.937[6.263-31.017], p<0.001), respiratory insufficiency (OR = 7.002[3.947-12.419], p<0.001), hyperkalaemia (OR = 10.378[3.909-27.555], p<0.001), nutritional supply requirement (OR = 3.576[1.894-6.752], p = 0.021), or early arthroplasty dislocation (OR = 6.557[1.206-35.640], p = 0.029). We developed a predictive model for early mortality after hip fracture surgery based on postoperative factors with 96.0% sensitivity and 60.7% specificity (AUC = 0.863).ConclusionWe revealed that not only preoperative, but also postoperative factors have a great impact after hip fracture surgery. The influence of post-operative factors on 30-day mortality has a logical basis, albeit so far they have not been identified or quantified before. Our results provide an advantageous picture of the 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery.

Project description:BackgroundFrailty and low handgrip strength (HGS) are associated with adverse outcomes after hip fracture (HF) surgery. We aimed to compare the predictive role of frailty and HGS for adverse outcome in HF patients.MethodsWe included older patients (age ≥ 65 years) who underwent HF surgery to compare the predictive role of HGS and hip-multidimensional frailty score (Hip-MFS) for postoperative complications and mortality. The Hip-MFS was calculated based on comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), and HGS was measured with a hand dynamometer. The primary outcome was a composite of postoperative complications (e.g., pneumonia, urinary tract infection, delirium, acute pulmonary thromboembolism, and unplanned intensive care unit admission). The secondary outcomes were 6-month mortality and mortality at the end of follow-up.ResultsThe median observation time was 620.5 days (interquartile range: 367.0-784.8 days). Among the 242 patients (mean age: 81.5 ± 6.7 years, 73.1% women), 106 (43.8%) experienced postoperative complications. The 6-month mortality and mortality at the end of follow-up were 7.4% (n = 18) and 20.7% (n = 50), respectively. The Hip-MFS (odds ratio [OR], 1.250; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.092-1.432) and HGS (OR, 1.147; 95% CI, 1.082-1.215) could predict postoperative complications. The Hip-MFS could predict both 6-month mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.403; 95% CI, 1.027-1.917) and mortality at the end of follow-up (HR, 1.493; 95% CI, 1.249-1.769) after adjustment, while HGS was only associated with mortality at the end of follow-up (HR, 1.080; 95% CI, 1.024-1.139). For mortality at the end of follow-up, predictive models with the Hip-MFS were superior to those with HGS in the time-dependent receiver-operating curve analysis after adjustment (p = 0.017). Furthermore, the addition of Hip-MFS or HGS to the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification improved its prognostic ability.ConclusionsBoth the Hip-MFS and HGS could predict postoperative complications and improve prognostic utility when combined with the ASA classification. The Hip-MFS was a stronger predictor of mortality than HGS after HF surgery. HGS could be a useful pre-screening tool to identify patients at a high risk of postoperative complications and those who may benefit from further CGA.

Project description:The AHFS90 was developed for the prediction of early mortality in patients ≥ 90 years undergoing hip fracture surgery. The AHFS90 has a good accuracy and in most risk categories a good calibration. In our study population, the AHFS90 yielded a maximum prediction of early mortality of 64.5%.PurposeIdentifying hip fracture patients with a high risk of early mortality after surgery could help make treatment decisions and information about the prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a risk score for predicting early mortality in patients ≥ 90 years undergoing hip fracture surgery (AHFS90).MethodsPatients ≥ 90 years, surgically treated for a hip fracture, were included. A selection of possible predictors for mortality was made. Missing data were subjected to multiple imputations using chained equations. Logistic regression was performed to develop the AHFS90, which was internally and externally validated. Calibration was assessed using a calibration plot and comparing observed and predicted risks.ResultsOne hundred and two of the 922 patients (11.1%) died ≤ 30 days following hip fracture surgery. The AHFS90 includes age, gender, dementia, living in a nursing home, ASA score, and hemoglobin level as predictors for early mortality. The AHFS90 had good accuracy (area under the curve 0.72 for geographic cross validation). Predicted risks correspond with observed risks of early mortality in four risk categories. In two risk categories, the AHFS90 overestimates the risk. In one risk category, no mortality was observed; therefore, no analysis was possible. The AHFS90 had a maximal prediction of early mortality of 64.5% in this study population.ConclusionThe AHFS90 accurately predicts early mortality after hip fracture surgery in patients ≥ 90 years of age. Predicted risks correspond to observed risks in most risk categories. In our study population, the AHFS90 yielded a maximum prediction of early mortality of 64.5%.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Mortality and Postoperative Complications using the Hip-Multidimensional Frailty Score in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture.

Publications

Prediction of Mortality and Postoperative Complications using the Hip-Multidimensional Frailty Score in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture.

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