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A Nomogram for Prediction of Postoperative Pneumonia Risk in Elderly Hip Fracture Patients.

ABSTRACT: Purpose:Pneumonia is one of the common complications of hip fracture. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors and apply a nomogram to predict postoperative pneumonia in elderly hip fracture patients. Materials and Methods:From August 2014 to October 2019, 1113 hip fracture patients who were older than 65 years and underwent surgical treatment in our hospital were subjects of this study. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was built, and the discrimination and calibration were determined by receiver operating characteristic and calibration plot. Results:A total of 166 patients developed pneumonia after operation (14.91%, pneumonia group) while the remaining 947 patients did not (85.09%, non-pneumonia group). According to the results, body mass index (OR, 0.76, 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.84, P<0.001), serum albumin (OR, 0.86, 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.93, P<0.001), c-reactive protein (OR, 1.01, 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.92, P=0.011), functional status (OR, 2.94, 95% CI, 1.69 to 5.10, P<0.001) and time to surgery (OR, 4.56, 95% CI, 2.64 to 7.88, P<0.001) were identified as independent risk factors of pneumonia. The area under the curve value for postoperative pneumonia risk was 0.905, and the P-value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration test was 0.529. Conclusion:Our nomogram model can be used to predict the risk of pneumonia in elderly hip fractures after surgery and provide clinicians with guidance for better perioperative intervention to improve prognosis and reduce mortality.

SUBMITTER: Xiang G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7502327 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Nomogram for Prediction of Postoperative Pneumonia Risk in Elderly Hip Fracture Patients.

Xiang Guangheng G Dong Xiaoyu X Xu Tao T Feng Yongzeng Y He Zili Z Ke Chenrong C Xiao Jian J Weng Yi-Min YM

Risk management and healthcare policy 20200916

<h4>Purpose</h4>Pneumonia is one of the common complications of hip fracture. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors and apply a nomogram to predict postoperative pneumonia in elderly hip fracture patients.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>From August 2014 to October 2019, 1113 hip fracture patients who were older than 65 years and underwent surgical treatment in our hospital were subjects of this study. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. ...[more]

PMID: 32982518

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Project description:Delirium is a common postoperative complication in elderly hip fracture patients that seriously affects patients' lives and health, and early delirium risk prediction, and targeted measures can significantly reduce the incidence of delirium. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly hip fracture patients. A total of 328 elderly patients with hip fractures enrolled retrospectively in department 1 of our hospital were randomly divided into the training set (n = 230) and the internal validation set (n = 98). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used for feature variable selection, and multivariate logistic regression with a backward stepwise method was used to construct a nomogram in the training set. The discrimination efficacy and calibration efficacy of the nomogram were evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve, respectively. The clinical usefulness was estimated through decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) analysis. Another validation set from department 2 of our hospital, containing 76 elderly patients with hip fractures, was used for external validation of the nomogram. A total of 43 (13.1%) and 12 (15.8%) patients had POD in department 1 and department 2, respectively. The nomogram was constructed by three predictors, including dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and albumin level. The nomogram showed good discrimination efficacy and calibration efficacy, with the AUC of 0.791 (95% CI, 0.708-0.873), 0.820 (95% CI, 0.676-0.964), and 0.841 (95% CI, 0.717-0.966) in the training set, the internal validation set, and the external validation set, respectively. Both DCA and CIC demonstrated that this nomogram has good clinical usefulness. The nomogram constructed by dementia, COPD, and albumin level can be conveniently used to predict POD in patients with elderly hip fractures.

Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate dysregulated molecules in preoperative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of elderly hip fracture patients with postoperative delirium (POD), in order to identify potential pathological mechanisms and biomarkers for pre-stage POD.Materials and methodsThis nested case control study used untargeted metabolomic and lipidomic analysis to profile the preoperative CSF of patients (n = 40) who developed POD undergone hip fracture surgery (n = 10) and those who did not (n = 30). Thirty Non-POD patients were matched to 10 POD patients by age (± 2 years) and Mini Mental State Examination score (± 2 points). CSF was collected after successful spinal anesthesia and banked for subsequent analysis. On the first two postoperative days, patients were assessed twice daily using the Confusion Assessment Method-Chinese Revision. CSF samples from the two groups were analyzed to investigate possible relevant pathological mechanisms and identify candidate biomarkers.ResultsDemographic characteristics of the groups were matched. Eighteen metabolites and thirty-three lipids were dysregulated in the preoperative CSF of POD patients. Pathway enrichment analysis revealed perturbations in D-glutamine and D-glutamate metabolism; glycerophospholipid metabolism; alanine, aspartate and glutamate metabolism; sphingolipid metabolism; histidine metabolism; and arginine biosynthesis at the pre-delirium stage. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that phosphatidylethanolamine (PE, 40:7e), with an area under the curve value of 0.92, is a potential biomarker for POD.ConclusionMultiple pathological mechanisms in the POD group were involved before surgery, including neuroinflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism disorders induced by hypoxia, as well as neurotransmitter imbalances such as increased dopamine and glutamate, and decreased glutamine. These metabolic abnormalities potentially increase the fragility of the brain, thus contributing to POD. PE (40:7e) might be a potential biomarker for POD. Not only do our results provide potential biomarkers for POD, but also provide information for deep pathological research.Clinical trial registrationwww.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier ChiCTR1900021533.

Dataset Information

A Nomogram for Prediction of Postoperative Pneumonia Risk in Elderly Hip Fracture Patients.

Publications

A Nomogram for Prediction of Postoperative Pneumonia Risk in Elderly Hip Fracture Patients.

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