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Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere.

ABSTRACT: Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia.This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM2.5-related premature mortality (PM2.5-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed.We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM2.5-mortality. The 1990-2010 annual average PM2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using the WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), and primary PM are estimated from the PM2.5-mortality responses to the emission variations.Estimated PM2.5-mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions (i.e., Europe and high-income North America) decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively.Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits (i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions). However, reductions in emissions of NH3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NOx emission controls. Citation: Wang J, Xing J, Mathur R, Pleim JE, Wang S, Hogrefe C, Gan CM, Wong DC, Hao J. 2017. Historical trends in PM2.5-related premature mortality during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Environ Health Perspect 125:400-408;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP298.

SUBMITTER: Wang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5332185 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere.

Wang Jiandong J Xing Jia J Mathur Rohit R Pleim Jonathan E JE Wang Shuxiao S Hogrefe Christian C Gan Chuen-Meei CM Wong David C DC Hao Jiming J

Environmental health perspectives 20160819 3

<h4>Background</h4>Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia.<h4>Objective</h4>This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related premature mortality (PM<sub>2.5</sub>-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that ...[more]

PMID: 27539607

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Project description:Concentrations of both fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in the United States (US) have decreased significantly since 1990, mainly because of air quality regulations. Exposure to these air pollutants is associated with premature death. Here we quantify the annual mortality burdens from PM2.5 and O3 in the US from 1990 to 2010, estimate trends and inter-annual variability, and evaluate the contributions to those trends from changes in pollutant concentrations, population, and baseline mortality rates. We use a fine-resolution (36 km) self-consistent 21-year simulation of air pollutant concentrations in the US from 1990 to 2010, a health impact function, and annual county-level population and baseline mortality rate estimates. From 1990 to 2010, the modeled population-weighted annual PM2.5 decreased by 39 %, and summertime (April to September) 1 h average daily maximum O3 decreased by 9 % from 1990 to 2010. The PM2.5-related mortality burden from ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and stroke steadily decreased by 54% from 123 700 deaths year-1 (95% confidence interval, 70 800-178 100) in 1990 to 58 600 deaths year-1 (24 900-98 500) in 2010. The PM2.5-related mortality burden would have decreased by only 24% from 1990 to 2010 if the PM2.5 concentrations had stayed at the 1990 level, due to decreases in baseline mortality rates for major diseases affected by PM2.5. The mortality burden associated with O3 from chronic respiratory disease increased by 13% from 10 900 deaths year-1 (3700-17 500) in 1990 to 12 300 deaths year-1 (4100-19 800) in 2010, mainly caused by increases in the baseline mortality rates and population, despite decreases in O3 concentration. The O3-related mortality burden would have increased by 55% from 1990 to 2010 if the O3 concentrations had stayed at the 1990 level. The detrended annual O3 mortality burden has larger inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation of 12%) than the PM2.5-related burden (4%), mainly from the inter-annual variation of O3 concentration. We conclude that air quality improvements have significantly decreased the mortality burden, avoiding roughly 35 800 (38%) PM2.5-related deaths and 4600 (27%) O3-related deaths in 2010, compared to the case if air quality had stayed at 1990 levels (at 2010 baseline mortality rates and population).

Project description:Wildfire activity in the western United States (US) has been increasing, a trend that has been correlated with changing patterns of temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Health effects associated with exposure to wildfire smoke and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) include short- and long-term premature mortality, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and other respiratory and cardiovascular incidents. We estimate PM2.5 exposure and health impacts for the entire continental US from current and future western US wildfire activity projected for a range of future climate scenarios through the 21st century. We use a simulation approach to estimate wildfire activity, area burned, fine particulate emissions, air quality concentrations, health effects, and economic valuation of health effects, using established and novel methodologies. We find that climatic factors increase wildfire pollutant emissions by an average of 0.40% per year over the 2006-2100 period under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (lower emissions scenarios) and 0.71% per year for RCP8.5. As a consequence, spatially weighted wildfire PM2.5 concentrations more than double for some climate model projections by the end of the 21st century. PM2.5 exposure changes, combined with population projections, result in a wildfire PM2.5-related premature mortality excess burden in the 2090 RCP8.5 scenario that is roughly 3.5 times larger than in the baseline period. The combined effect of increased wildfire activity, population growth, and increase in the valuation of avoided risk of premature mortality over time results in a large increase in total economic impact of wildfire-related PM2.5 mortality and morbidity in the continental US, from roughly $7 billion per year in the baseline period to roughly $36 billion per year in 2090 for RCP4.5, and $43 billion per year in RCP8.5. The climate effect alone accounts for a roughly 60% increase in wildfire PM2.5-related premature mortality in the RCP8.5 scenario, relative to baseline conditions.

Project description:BackgroundIntrapartum hypoxic events ("birth asphyxia") may result in stillbirth, neonatal or postneonatal mortality, and impairment. Systematic morbidity estimates for the burden of impairment outcomes are currently limited. Neonatal encephalopathy (NE) following an intrapartum hypoxic event is a strong predictor of long-term impairment.MethodsLinear regression modeling was conducted on data identified through systematic reviews to estimate NE incidence and time trends for 184 countries. Meta-analyses were undertaken to estimate the risk of NE by sex of the newborn, neonatal case fatality rate, and impairment risk. A compartmental model estimated postneonatal survivors of NE, depending on access to care, and then the proportion of survivors with impairment. Separate modeling for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD2010) study estimated disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) attributed to intrapartum-related events.ResultsIn 2010, 1.15 million babies (uncertainty range: 0.89-1.60 million; 8.5 cases per 1,000 live births) were estimated to have developed NE associated with intrapartum events, with 96% born in low- and middle-income countries, as compared with 1.60 million in 1990 (11.7 cases per 1,000 live births). An estimated 287,000 (181,000-440,000) neonates with NE died in 2010; 233,000 (163,000-342,000) survived with moderate or severe neurodevelopmental impairment; and 181,000 (82,000-319,000) had mild impairment. In GBD2010, intrapartum-related conditions comprised 50.2 million DALYs (2.4% of total) and 6.1 million YLDs.ConclusionIntrapartum-related conditions are a large global burden, mostly due to high mortality in low-income countries. Universal coverage of obstetric care and neonatal resuscitation would prevent most of these deaths and disabilities. Rates of impairment are highest in middle-income countries where neonatal intensive care was more recently introduced, but quality may be poor. In settings without neonatal intensive care, the impairment rate is low due to high mortality, which is relevant for the scale-up of basic neonatal resuscitation.

Project description:BackgroundLong-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) may increase the risk of neonatal infections. To show the effects of PM2.5 on neonatal infections as well as the trends of the effect, we studied the burden measured by the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) and its trends with the socio-demographic index in 192 countries and regions from 1990 to 2019.MethodsThis is a retrospective study that uses the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate are used to measure the burden of PM2.5-related neonatal infections in different countries and regions. The annual percentage changes and the average annual percentage changes are used to reflect the trends over the years (1990-2019) and are calculated using a Joinpoint model. The relationship of the socio-demographic index with the ASMR and ASDR is calculated and described using Gaussian process regression.ResultsWith the rapid increase in the global annual average of PM2.5, the global burden of PM2.5-related neonatal infections has increased since 1990, especially in early neonates, boys, and low-middle SDI regions. Globally, the ASMR and ASDR of PM2.5-related neonatal infections in 2019 were 0.21 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.31) and 19.06 (95% CI: 12.58, 27.52) per 100,000 people, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR and ASDR increased by 72.58% and 73.30%, and their average annual percentage changes were 1.9 (95% CI: 1.3, 2.6) and 2.0 (95% CI: 1.3, 2.6), respectively. When the socio-demographic index was more than 0.60, it was negatively related to the burden of PM2.5-related neonatal infections. Surprisingly, the burden in low SDI regions was lower than it was in low-middle and middle SDI regions, while high-middle and high-SDI regions showed decreasing trends.InterpretationBoys bore a higher PM2.5-related neonatal burden, with male fetuses being more likely to be affected by prenatal exposure to PM2.5 and having less of a biological survival advantage. Poverty was the root cause of the burden. Higher SDI countries devoted more resources to improving air quality, the coverage of medical services, the accessibility of institutional delivery, and timely referral to reduce the disease burden. The burden in low SDI regions was lower than that in low-middle and middle SDI regions. One reason was that the benefits of medical services were lower than the harm to health caused by environmental pollution in low-middle and middle SDI regions. Moreover, the underreporting of data is more serious in low SDI countries.ConclusionsIn the past 30 years, the global burden of PM2.5-related neonatal infections has increased, especially in early neonates, boys, and low-middle SDI regions. The huge difference compared to higher SDI countries means that lower SDI countries have a long way to go to reduce the disease burden. Policy makers should appropriately allocate medical resources to boys and early newborns and pay more attention to data under-reporting in low SDI countries. In addition, it is very necessary to promulgate policies to prevent and control air pollution in countries with large and increasing exposure to PM2.5 pollution.

Dataset Information

Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere.

Publications

Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere.

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