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Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients.

ABSTRACT: No study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the largest-to-date, unselected, population-based cohort of patients diagnosed with OPSCC, we performed a comprehensive analysis of long-term OS, TTP, and SAP and constructed novel nomograms to evaluate patients' prognoses.At a median follow-up of 4.0 years (range: 0.8-15.8 yrs.), 690 deaths were recorded. The 5-year OS, TTP, and SAP for the HPV+/p16+ subgroup were 77%, 82%, and 33, vs. 30%, 66%, and 6% for the HPV-/p16- group (P < 0.01). 376 patients failed to maintain disease control with a median TTP of 13 months in the HPV+/p16+ subgroup vs. 8.5 months in the HPV-/p16- subgroup (P < 0.05). HPV combined with p16 status remained one of the most informative covariates in the final Cox regression model for OS, TTP, and SAP.We included all patients diagnosed with OPSCC (n = 1,542) between 2000-2014 in Eastern Denmark. Survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to construct predictive, internally validated nomograms.The HPV+/p16+ subgroup had improved OS, TTP, and SAP compared with other combinations of HPV and p16 after adjusting for covariates. Nomograms were constructed for 1-, 5- and 10-year survival probability. Models may aid patients and clinicians in their clinical decision making as well as in counselling, research, and trial design.

SUBMITTER: Larsen CG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5342120 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients.

Larsen Christian Grønhøj CG Jensen David H DH Carlander Amanda-Louise Fenger AF Kiss Katalin K Andersen Luise L Olsen Caroline Holkmann CH Andersen Elo E Garnæs Emilie E Cilius Finn F Specht Lena L von Buchwald Christian C

Oncotarget 20161101 44

<h4>Background</h4>No study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the largest-to-date, unselected, population-based cohort of patients diagnosed with OPSCC, we performed a comprehensive analysis of long-term OS, TTP, and SAP and constructed novel nomograms to eva ...[more]

PMID: 27708214

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Project description:BackgroundOropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is associated with high mortality. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a significant risk factor for OPSCC. Utilities are fundamental values representing the strength of individuals' preferences for specific health-related outcomes. Our study aim was to work in partnership with Indigenous communities in South Australia to develop, pilot test and estimate utility scores for health states related to HPV, HPV vaccination, precursor OPSCC and its treatment, and early stage OPSCC among Indigenous Australians.MethodsDevelopment and pilot testing of hypothetical HPV and OPSCC health states, specifically through the lens of being Indigenous Australian, was conducted with an Indigenous Reference Group. Six health states were decided upon, with utility scores calculated using a two-stage standard gamble approach among a large convenience sample of Indigenous Australians aged 18+ years residing in South Australia. The rank, percentage of perfect health and utility score of each health state was summarised using means, and medians at 12 months and lifetime duration. Potential differences by age, sex and residential location were assessed using the Wilcox Rank Sum test.ResultsData from 1011 participants was obtained. The mean utility scores decreased with increasing severity of health states, ranging from 0.91-0.92 in 'screened, cytology normal, HPV vaccination' and 'screened, HPV positive, endoscopy normal', to less than 0.90 (ranging from 0.87-0.88) in lower grade conditions (oral warts and oral intraepithelial neoplasia) and less than 0.80 (ranging from 0.75-0.79) in 'early stage throat cancer'. Higher utility scores were observed for 'screened, cytology normal and HPV vaccination' among younger participants (18-40 years), for 'early stage invasive throat cancer' among females, and for 'oral intraepithelial neoplasia' and 'early stage invasive throat cancer' among metropolitan-dwelling participants.ConclusionAmong a large sample of Indigenous Australians, utility for oral HPV infection and OPSCC decreased with severity of health states. Older participants, as well as males and those residing in non-metropolitan locations, had decreased utility for high-grade cytology and early invasive cancer states. Our findings are an important contribution to cost-utility and disease prevention strategies that seek to inform policies around reducing HPV infection and OPSCC among all Australians.

Dataset Information

Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients.

Publications

Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients.

Similar Datasets

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