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Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients.


ABSTRACT: No study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the largest-to-date, unselected, population-based cohort of patients diagnosed with OPSCC, we performed a comprehensive analysis of long-term OS, TTP, and SAP and constructed novel nomograms to evaluate patients' prognoses.At a median follow-up of 4.0 years (range: 0.8-15.8 yrs.), 690 deaths were recorded. The 5-year OS, TTP, and SAP for the HPV+/p16+ subgroup were 77%, 82%, and 33, vs. 30%, 66%, and 6% for the HPV-/p16- group (P < 0.01). 376 patients failed to maintain disease control with a median TTP of 13 months in the HPV+/p16+ subgroup vs. 8.5 months in the HPV-/p16- subgroup (P < 0.05). HPV combined with p16 status remained one of the most informative covariates in the final Cox regression model for OS, TTP, and SAP.We included all patients diagnosed with OPSCC (n = 1,542) between 2000-2014 in Eastern Denmark. Survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to construct predictive, internally validated nomograms.The HPV+/p16+ subgroup had improved OS, TTP, and SAP compared with other combinations of HPV and p16 after adjusting for covariates. Nomograms were constructed for 1-, 5- and 10-year survival probability. Models may aid patients and clinicians in their clinical decision making as well as in counselling, research, and trial design.

SUBMITTER: Larsen CG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5342120 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients.

Larsen Christian Grønhøj CG   Jensen David H DH   Carlander Amanda-Louise Fenger AF   Kiss Katalin K   Andersen Luise L   Olsen Caroline Holkmann CH   Andersen Elo E   Garnæs Emilie E   Cilius Finn F   Specht Lena L   von Buchwald Christian C  

Oncotarget 20161101 44


<h4>Background</h4>No study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the largest-to-date, unselected, population-based cohort of patients diagnosed with OPSCC, we performed a comprehensive analysis of long-term OS, TTP, and SAP and constructed novel nomograms to eva  ...[more]

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