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Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.


ABSTRACT: Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002-2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originated in the Southern US. Each epidemic was associated with 1-5 early long-range transmission events, half of which sparked onward transmission. Gravity model estimates indicate a sharp decay in influenza transmission with the distance between infectious and susceptible cities, consistent with spread dominated by work commutes rather than air traffic. Two early-onset seasons associated with antigenic novelty had particularly localized modes of spread, suggesting that novel strains may spread in a more localized fashion than previously anticipated.

SUBMITTER: Charu V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5349690 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

Charu Vivek V   Zeger Scott S   Gog Julia J   Bjørnstad Ottar N ON   Kissler Stephen S   Simonsen Lone L   Grenfell Bryan T BT   Viboud Cécile C  

PLoS computational biology 20170210 2


Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002-2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originate  ...[more]

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