Dataset Information

Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Recurrent outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza create a need for forecasts of the geographic spread of this pathogen. Although it is well established that the spatial progression of infection is largely attributable to human mobility, difficulty obtaining real-time information on human movement has limited its incorporation into existing infectious disease forecasting techniques. In this study, we develop and validate an ensemble forecast system for predicting the spatiotemporal spread of influenza that uses readily accessible human mobility data and a metapopulation model. In retrospective state-level forecasts for 35 US states, the system accurately predicts local influenza outbreak onset,-i.e., spatial spread, defined as the week that local incidence increases above a baseline threshold-up to 6 wk in advance of this event. In addition, the metapopulation prediction system forecasts influenza outbreak onset, peak timing, and peak intensity more accurately than isolated location-specific forecasts. The proposed framework could be applied to emergent respiratory viruses and, with appropriate modifications, other infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Pei S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5856508 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

Pei Sen S Kandula Sasikiran S Yang Wan W Shaman Jeffrey J

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180226 11

Recurrent outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza create a need for forecasts of the geographic spread of this pathogen. Although it is well established that the spatial progression of infection is largely attributable to human mobility, difficulty obtaining real-time information on human movement has limited its incorporation into existing infectious disease forecasting techniques. In this study, we develop and validate an ensemble forecast system for predicting the spatiotemporal spread o ...[more]

PMID: 29483256

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Project description:BackgroundAs of June 11, 2009, a total of 17,855 probable or confirmed cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) had been reported in the United States. Risk factors for transmission remain largely uncharacterized. We characterize the risk factors and describe the transmission of the virus within households.MethodsProbable and confirmed cases of infection with the 2009 H1N1 virus in the United States were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the use of a standardized case form. We investigated transmission of infection in 216 households--including 216 index patients and their 600 household contacts--in which the index patient was the first case patient and complete information on symptoms and age was available for all household members.ResultsAn acute respiratory illness developed in 78 of 600 household contacts (13%). In 156 households (72% of the 216 households), an acute respiratory illness developed in none of the household contacts; in 46 households (21%), illness developed in one contact; and in 14 households (6%), illness developed in more than one contact. The proportion of household contacts in whom acute respiratory illness developed decreased with the size of the household, from 28% in two-member households to 9% in six-member households. Household contacts 18 years of age or younger were twice as susceptible as those 19 to 50 years of age (relative susceptibility, 1.96; Bayesian 95% credible interval, 1.05 to 3.78; P=0.005), and household contacts older than 50 years of age were less susceptible than those who were 19 to 50 years of age (relative susceptibility, 0.17; 95% credible interval, 0.02 to 0.92; P=0.03). Infectivity did not vary with age. The mean time between the onset of symptoms in a case patient and the onset of symptoms in the household contacts infected by that patient was 2.6 days (95% credible interval, 2.2 to 3.5).ConclusionsThe transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in households is lower than that seen in past pandemics. Most transmissions occur soon before or after the onset of symptoms in a case patient.

Dataset Information

Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

Publications

Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

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