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High-risk carotid plaques identified by CT-angiogram can predict acute myocardial infarction.

ABSTRACT: Prior studies identified the incremental value of non-invasive imaging by CT-angiogram (CTA) to detect high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaques. Due to their superficial locations, larger calibers and motion-free imaging, the carotid arteries provide the best anatomic access for the non-invasive characterization of atherosclerotic plaques. We aim to assess the ability of predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or acute myocardial infarction (MI) based on high-risk carotid plaque features identified by CTA. We retrospectively examined carotid CTAs of 492 patients that presented with acute stroke to characterize the atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid arteries and examined development of acute MI and obstructive CAD within 12-months. Carotid lesions were defined in terms of calcifications (large or speckled), presence of low-attenuation plaques, positive remodeling, and presence of napkin ring sign. Adjusted relative risks were calculated for each plaque features. Patients with speckled (<3 mm) calcifications and/or larger calcifications on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within 1 year compared to patients without (adjusted RR of 7.51, 95%CI 1.26-73.42, P?=?0.001). Patients with low-attenuation plaques on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within 1 year than patients without (adjusted RR of 2.73, 95%CI 1.19-8.50, P?=?0.021). Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques also portended higher sensitivity (100 and 79.17%, respectively) for the development of acute MI. Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques can predict the risk of developing acute MI and/or obstructive CAD within 12-months. Given their high sensitivity, their absence can reliably exclude 12-month events.

SUBMITTER: Mosleh W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5357438 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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High-risk carotid plaques identified by CT-angiogram can predict acute myocardial infarction.

Mosleh Wassim W Adib Keenan K Natdanai Punnanithinont P Carmona-Rubio Andres A Karki Roshan R Paily Jacienta J Ahmed Mohamed Abdel-Aal MA Vakkalanka Sujit S Madam Narasa N Gudleski Gregory D GD Chung Charles C Sharma Umesh C UC

The international journal of cardiovascular imaging 20161119 4

Prior studies identified the incremental value of non-invasive imaging by CT-angiogram (CTA) to detect high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaques. Due to their superficial locations, larger calibers and motion-free imaging, the carotid arteries provide the best anatomic access for the non-invasive characterization of atherosclerotic plaques. We aim to assess the ability of predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or acute myocardial infarction (MI) based on high-risk carotid plaque f ...[more]

PMID: 27866279

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Several models have been developed to predict asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS), however these models did not pay much attention to people with lower level of stenosis (<50% or carotid plaques, especially instable carotid plaques) who might benefit from early interventions. Here, we developed a new model to predict unstable carotid plaques through systematic screening in population with high risk of stroke. METHODS:Community residents who participated the China National Stroke Screening and Prevention Project (CNSSPP) were screened for their stroke risks. A total of 2841 individuals with high risk of stroke were enrolled in this study, 266 (9.4%) of them were found unstable carotid plaques. A total of 19 risk factors were included in this study. Subjects were randomly distributed into Derivation Set group or Validation Set group. According to their carotid ultrasonography records, subjects in derivation set group were further categorized into unstable plaque group or stable plaque group. RESULTS:174 cases and 1720 cases from Derivation Set group were categorized into unstable plaque group and stable plaque group respectively. The independent risk factors for carotid unstable plaque were: male (OR 1.966, 95%CI 1.406-2.749), older age (50-59, OR 6.012, 95%CI 1.410-25.629; 60-69, OR 13.915, 95%CI 3.381-57.267;≥70, OR 31.267, 95%CI 7.472-130.83), married(OR 1.780, 95%CI 1.186-2.672), LDL-C(OR 2.015, 95%CI 1.443-2.814), and HDL-C(OR 2.130, 95%CI 1.360-3.338). A predictive scoring system was generated, ranging from 0 to 10. The cut-off value of this predictive scoring system is 6.5. The AUC value for derivation and validation set group were 0.738 and 0.737 respectively. CONCLUSIONS:For those individuals with high risk of stroke, we developed a new model which could identify those who have a higher chance to have unstable carotid plaques. When an individual's predictive model score exceeds 6.5, the probability of having carotid unstable plaques is high, and carotid ultrasonography should be conducted accordingly. This model could be helpful in the primary prevention of stroke.

Project description:To investigate the feasibility and accuracy of texture analysis to distinguish through objective and quantitative image information between healthy and infarcted myocardium with computed tomography (CT).Twenty patients (5 females; mean age 56±10years) with proven acute myocardial infarction (MI) and 20 patients (8 females; mean age 42±15years) with no cardiac abnormalities (hereafter termed controls) underwent contrast-enhanced cardiac CT. Short axis CT images of the left ventricle (LV) were reconstructed at the slice thicknesses 1mm, 2mm, and 5mm. Two independent, blinded readers segmented the LV in controls and patients. Texture analysis was performed yielding first-level features based on the histogram (variance, skewness, kurtosis, entropy), second-level features based on the gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) (contrast, correlation, energy and homogeneity), and third-level features based on the gray-level run-length matrix (GLRLM).Inter-and intrareader agreement was good to excellent for all histogram (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC):0.70-0.93) and for all GLCM features (ICC:0.66-0.99), and was variable for the GLRLM features (ICC:-0.12-0.99). Univariate analysis showed significant differences between patients and controls for 2/4 histogram features, 3/4 GLCM and for 6/11 GLRLM features and all assessed slice thicknesses (all,p<0.05). In a multivariate logistic regression model, the single best variable from each level, determined by ROC analysis, was included stepwise. The best model included kurtosis (OR 0.08, 95%CI:0.01-0.65,P = 0.018) and short run high gray-level emphasis (SRHGE, OR 0.97, 95%CI:0.94-0.99,P = 0.007), with an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95%CI:0.80-0.99). The best results for kurtosis and SRHGE (AUC = 0.78) were obtained at a 5mm slice thickness. A cut-off value of 14.4 for kurtosis+0.013*SRHGE predicted acute MI with a sensitivity of 95% (specificity 55%).Our study illustrates the feasibility of texture analysis for distinguishing healthy from acutely infarcted myocardium with cardiac CT using objective, quantitative features, with most reproducible and accurate results at a short axis slice thickness of 5mm.

Project description:BackgroundPreclinical data suggest that an acute inflammatory response following myocardial infarction (MI) accelerates systemic atherosclerosis. Using combined positron emission and computed tomography, we investigated whether this phenomenon occurs in humans.Methods and resultsOverall, 40 patients with MI and 40 with stable angina underwent thoracic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose combined positron emission and computed tomography scan. Radiotracer uptake was measured in aortic atheroma and nonvascular tissue (paraspinal muscle). In 1003 patients enrolled in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events, we assessed whether infarct size predicted early (≤30 days) and late (>30 days) recurrent coronary events. Compared with patients with stable angina, patients with MI had higher aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (tissue-to-background ratio 2.15±0.30 versus 1.84±0.18, P<0.0001) and plasma C-reactive protein concentrations (6.50 [2.00 to 12.75] versus 2.00 [0.50 to 4.00] mg/dL, P=0.0005) despite having similar aortic (P=0.12) and less coronary (P=0.006) atherosclerotic burden and similar paraspinal muscular 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (P=0.52). Patients with ST-segment elevation MI had larger infarcts (peak plasma troponin 32 300 [10 200 to >50 000] versus 3800 [1000 to 9200] ng/L, P<0.0001) and greater aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (2.24±0.32 versus 2.02±0.21, P=0.03) than those with non-ST-segment elevation MI. Peak plasma troponin concentrations correlated with aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (r=0.43, P=0.01) and, on multivariate analysis, independently predicted early (tertile 3 versus tertile 1: relative risk 4.40 [95% CI 1.90 to 10.19], P=0.001), but not late, recurrent MI.ConclusionsThe presence and extent of MI is associated with increased aortic atherosclerotic inflammation and early recurrent MI. This finding supports the hypothesis that acute MI exacerbates systemic atherosclerotic inflammation and remote plaque destabilization: MI begets MI.Clinical trial registrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01749254.

Project description:ImportanceAccurate prediction of adverse outcomes after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) can guide the triage of care services and shared decision-making, and novel methods hold promise for using existing data to generate additional insights.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether contemporary machine learning methods can facilitate risk prediction by including a larger number of variables and identifying complex relationships between predictors and outcomes.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used the American College of Cardiology Chest Pain-MI Registry to identify all AMI hospitalizations between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2016. Data analysis was performed from February 1, 2018, to October 22, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresThree machine learning models were developed and validated to predict in-hospital mortality based on patient comorbidities, medical history, presentation characteristics, and initial laboratory values. Models were developed based on extreme gradient descent boosting (XGBoost, an interpretable model), a neural network, and a meta-classifier model. Their accuracy was compared against the current standard developed using a logistic regression model in a validation sample.ResultsA total of 755 402 patients (mean [SD] age, 65 [13] years; 495 202 [65.5%] male) were identified during the study period. In independent validation, 2 machine learning models, gradient descent boosting and meta-classifier (combination including inputs from gradient descent boosting and a neural network), marginally improved discrimination compared with logistic regression (C statistic, 0.90 for best performing machine learning model vs 0.89 for logistic regression). Nearly perfect calibration in independent validation data was found in the XGBoost (slope of predicted to observed events, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.04) and the meta-classifier model (slope of predicted-to-observed events, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.02), with more precise classification across the risk spectrum. The XGBoost model reclassified 32 393 of 121 839 individuals (27%) and the meta-classifier model reclassified 30 836 of 121 839 individuals (25%) deemed at moderate to high risk for death in logistic regression as low risk, which were more consistent with the observed event rates.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study using a large national registry, none of the tested machine learning models were associated with substantive improvement in the discrimination of in-hospital mortality after AMI, limiting their clinical utility. However, compared with logistic regression, XGBoost and meta-classifier models, but not the neural network, offered improved resolution of risk for high-risk individuals.

Project description:ObjectivesThe risk of adverse events and prognostic factors are changing in different time phases after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The incidence of adverse events is considerable in the early period after AMI hospitalisation. Therefore, dynamic risk prediction is needed to guide postdischarge management of AMI. This study aimed to develop a dynamic risk prediction instrument for patients following AMI.DesignA retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort.Setting108 hospitals in China.ParticipantsA total of 23 887 patients after AMI in the China Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry were included in this analysis.Primary outcome measuresAll-cause mortality.ResultsIn multivariable analyses, age, prior stroke, heart rate, Killip class, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), in-hospital percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), recurrent myocardial ischaemia, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure (HF) during hospitalisation, antiplatelet therapy and statins at discharge were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Variables related to mortality between 30 days and 2 years included age, prior renal dysfunction, history of HF, AMI classification, heart rate, Killip class, haemoglobin, LVEF, in-hospital PCI, HF during hospitalisation, HF worsening within 30 days after discharge, antiplatelet therapy, β blocker and statin use within 30 days after discharge. The inclusion of adverse events and medications significantly improved the predictive performance of models without these indexes (likelihood ratio test p<0.0001). These two sets of predictors were used to establish dynamic prognostic nomograms for predicting mortality in patients with AMI. The C indexes of 30-day and 2-year prognostic nomograms were 0.85 (95% CI 0.83-0.88) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.81-0.84) in derivation cohort, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.86) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.84) in validation cohort, with satisfactory calibration.ConclusionsWe established dynamic risk prediction models incorporating adverse event and medications. The nomograms may be useful instruments to help prospective risk assessment and management of AMI.Trial registration numberNCT01874691.

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High-risk carotid plaques identified by CT-angiogram can predict acute myocardial infarction.

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High-risk carotid plaques identified by CT-angiogram can predict acute myocardial infarction.

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