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A model to predict unstable carotid plaques in population with high risk of stroke.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Several models have been developed to predict asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS), however these models did not pay much attention to people with lower level of stenosis (<50% or carotid plaques, especially instable carotid plaques) who might benefit from early interventions. Here, we developed a new model to predict unstable carotid plaques through systematic screening in population with high risk of stroke. METHODS:Community residents who participated the China National Stroke Screening and Prevention Project (CNSSPP) were screened for their stroke risks. A total of 2841 individuals with high risk of stroke were enrolled in this study, 266 (9.4%) of them were found unstable carotid plaques. A total of 19 risk factors were included in this study. Subjects were randomly distributed into Derivation Set group or Validation Set group. According to their carotid ultrasonography records, subjects in derivation set group were further categorized into unstable plaque group or stable plaque group. RESULTS:174 cases and 1720 cases from Derivation Set group were categorized into unstable plaque group and stable plaque group respectively. The independent risk factors for carotid unstable plaque were: male (OR 1.966, 95%CI 1.406-2.749), older age (50-59, OR 6.012, 95%CI 1.410-25.629; 60-69, OR 13.915, 95%CI 3.381-57.267;?70, OR 31.267, 95%CI 7.472-130.83), married(OR 1.780, 95%CI 1.186-2.672), LDL-C(OR 2.015, 95%CI 1.443-2.814), and HDL-C(OR 2.130, 95%CI 1.360-3.338). A predictive scoring system was generated, ranging from 0 to 10. The cut-off value of this predictive scoring system is 6.5. The AUC value for derivation and validation set group were 0.738 and 0.737 respectively. CONCLUSIONS:For those individuals with high risk of stroke, we developed a new model which could identify those who have a higher chance to have unstable carotid plaques. When an individual's predictive model score exceeds 6.5, the probability of having carotid unstable plaques is high, and carotid ultrasonography should be conducted accordingly. This model could be helpful in the primary prevention of stroke.

SUBMITTER: Yin J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7137419 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A model to predict unstable carotid plaques in population with high risk of stroke.

Yin Junxiong J Yu Chuanyong C Liu Hongxing H Du Mingyang M Sun Feng F Yu Cheng C Wei Lixia L Wang Chongjun C Wang Xiaoshan X

BMC cardiovascular disorders 20200407 1

<h4>Background</h4>Several models have been developed to predict asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS), however these models did not pay much attention to people with lower level of stenosis (<50% or carotid plaques, especially instable carotid plaques) who might benefit from early interventions. Here, we developed a new model to predict unstable carotid plaques through systematic screening in population with high risk of stroke.<h4>Methods</h4>Community residents who participated the China Nation ...[more]

PMID: 32264828

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Project description:BackgroundExtracranial atherosclerosis is one of the major causes of stroke. Carotid computed tomography angiography (CTA) is a widely used imaging modality that allows detailed assessments of plaque characteristics. This study aimed to develop and test radiomics models of carotid plaques and perivascular adipose tissue (PVAT) to distinguish symptomatic from asymptomatic plaques and compare the diagnostic value between radiomics models and traditional CTA model.MethodsA total of 144 patients with carotid plaques were divided into symptomatic and asymptomatic groups. The traditional CTA model was built by the traditional radiological features of carotid plaques measured on CTA images which were screened by univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression. We extracted and screened radiomics features from carotid plaques and PVAT. Then, a support vector machine was used for building plaque and PVAT radiomics models, as well as a combined model using traditional CTA features and radiomics features. The diagnostic value between radiomics models and traditional CTA model was compared in identifying symptomatic carotid plaques by Delong method.ResultsThe area under curve (AUC) values of traditional CTA model were 0.624 and 0.624 for the training and validation groups, respectively. The plaque radiomics model and PVAT radiomics model achieved AUC values of 0.766, 0.740 and 0.759, 0.618 in the two groups, respectively. Meanwhile, the combined model of plaque and PVAT radiomics features and traditional CTA features had AUC values of 0.883 and 0.840 for the training and validation groups, respectively, and the receiver operating characteristic curves of combined model were significantly better than those of traditional CTA model in the training group (P<0.001) and validation group (P=0.029).ConclusionsThe combined model of the radiomics features of carotid plaques and PVAT and the traditional CTA features significantly contributes to identifying high-risk carotid plaques compared with traditional CTA model.

Project description:ImportanceThere is an ongoing debate regarding the management of asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Previous studies have reported imaging features of high-risk plaques that could help to optimize the risk-benefit ratio of revascularization. However, such studies have not provided an accurate estimate of the prevalence of high-risk plaques and the associated annual incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events to inform the design of clinical trials using a risk-oriented selection of patients before randomization.ObjectiveTo assess the relevance and feasibility of risk-oriented selection of patients for revascularization.Data sourcesA systematic search of PubMed and Ovid Embase from database inception to July 31, 2019, was performed.Study selectionProspective observational studies that reported prevalence of high-risk plaques and incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events were included.Data extraction and synthesisAggregated data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Data were analyzed from December 16, 2019, to January 15, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresPrevalence of high-risk plaques and annual incidence of ipsilateral ischemic events.ResultsOverall, 64 studies enrolling 20 751 participants aged 29 to 95 years (mean age range, 55.0-76.5 years; proportion of men, 45%-87%) were included in the meta-analysis. Among all participants, the pooled prevalence of high-risk plaques was 26.5% (95% CI, 22.9%-30.3%). The most prevalent high-risk plaque features were neovascularization (43.4%; 95% CI, 31.4%-55.8%) in 785 participants, echolucency (42.3%; 95% CI, 32.2%-52.8%) in 12 364 participants, and lipid-rich necrotic core (36.3%; 95% CI, 27.7%-45.2%) in 3728 participants. The overall incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events was 3.2 events per 100 person-years (22 cohorts with 10 381 participants; mean follow-up period, 2.8 years; range, 0.7-6.5 years). The incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events was higher in patients with high-risk plaques (4.3 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 2.5-6.5 events per 100 person-years) than in those without high-risk plaques (1.2 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 0.6-1.8 events per 100 person-years), with an odds ratio of 3.0 (95% CI, 2.1-4.3; I2 = 48.8%). In studies focusing on severe stenosis (9 cohorts with 2128 participants; mean follow-up period, 2.8 years; range, 1.4-6.5 years), the incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events was 3.7 events per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.9-6.0 events per 100 person-years). The incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events was also higher in patients with high-risk plaques (7.3 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 2.0-15.0 events per 100 person-years) than in those without high-risk plaques (1.7 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 0.6-3.3 events per 100 person-years), with an odds ratio of 3.2 (95% CI, 1.7-5.9; I2 = 39.6%).Conclusions and relevanceHigh-risk plaques are common in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis, and the associated risk of an ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular event is higher than the currently accepted estimates. Extension of routine assessment of asymptomatic carotid stenosis beyond the grade of stenosis may help improve risk stratification and optimize therapy.

Project description:BackgroundEvidence on the association between the non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDLc)-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc) ratio (non-HDLc/HDLc) and carotid plaques is still limited. This study aims to assess the relationship between the non-HDLc/HDLc and carotid plaques in a population with a high risk of stroke.MethodsA cross-sectional study based on the community was conducted in Yangzhou, China. Residents (no younger than 40 years old) underwent questionnaire interviews, physical examinations, and laboratory testing during 2013-2014. The subjects with a high risk of stroke were further selected (at least three of eight risk factors including hypertension, atrial fibrillation, type 2 diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, smoking, lack of exercise, overweight, and family history of stroke) or a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or stroke history. Carotid ultrasonography was then performed on the high stroke risk participants. Carotid plaque was defined as a focal carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) ≥1.5 cm or a discrete structure protruding into the arterial lumen at least 50% of the surrounding cIMT. Logistic regression was employed to evaluate the relationship between the non-HDLc/HDLc and carotid plaques.ResultsOverall, 839 subjects with a high risk of stroke were ultimately included in the analysis, and carotid plaques were identified in 341 (40.6%) of them. Participants in the highest non-HDLc/HDLc tertile group presented a higher proportion of carotid plaques than did those in the other two groups. After adjustment for other confounders, each unit increase in the non-HDLc/HDLc was significantly associated with carotid plaques (OR 1.55, 95%CI 1.28-1.88). In the subgroup analysis, the non-HDLc/HDLc was positively and significantly associated with the presence of carotid plaques in most subgroups. Additionally, the non-HDLc/HDLc interacted significantly with three stratification variables, including sex (OR 1.31 for males vs. OR 2.37 for females, P interaction = 0.016), exercise (OR 1.18 for subjects without lack of exercise vs. OR 1.99 for subjects with lack of exercise, P interaction = 0.004) and heart diseases (OR 1.40 for subjects without heart diseases vs. OR 3.12 for subjects with heart diseases, P interaction = 0.033).ConclusionThe non-HDLc/HDLc was positively associated with the presence of carotid plaques in a Chinese high stroke risk population. A prospective study or randomized clinical trial of lipid-lowering therapy in the Chinese population is needed to evaluate their causal relationship.

Project description:Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease with high prevalence and mortality. The rupture of atherosclerotic plaque is the main reason for the clinical events caused by atherosclerosis. Making clear the transcriptomic and proteomic profiles between the stabe and unstable atherosclerotic plaques is crucial to prevent the clinical manifestations. In the present study, 5 stable and 5 unstable human carotid atherosclerotic plaques were obtained by carotid endarterectomy. The samples were used for the whole transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq) by the Next-Generation Sequencing using the Illumina HiSeq, and for proteome analysis by HPLC-MS/MS. The lncRNA-targeted genes and circRNA-originated genes were identified by analyzing their location and sequence. Gene Ontology and KEGG enrichment was carried out to analyze the functions of differentially expressed RNAs and proteins. The protein-protein interactions (PPI) network was constructed by the online tool STRING. The consistency of transcriptome and proteome were analyzed, and the lncRNA/circRNA-miRNA-mRNA interactions were predicted. As a result, 202 mRNAs, 488 lncRNAs, 91 circRNAs, and 293 proteins were identified to be differentially expressed between stable and unstable atherosclerotic plaques. The 488 lncRNAs might target 381 protein-coding genes by cis-acting mechanisms. Sequence analysis indicated the 91 differentially expressed circRNAs were originated from 97 protein-coding genes. These differentially expressed RNAs and proteins were mainly enriched in the terms of the cellular response to stress or stimulus, the regulation of gene transcription, the immune response, the nervous system functions, the hematologic activities, and the endocrine system. These results were consistent with the previous reported data in the dataset GSE41571. Further analysis identified CD5L, S100A12, CKB (target gene of lncRNA MSTRG.11455.17), CEMIP (target gene of lncRNA MSTRG.12845), and SH3GLB1 (originated gene of hsacirc_000411) to be critical genes in regulating the stability of atherosclerotic plaques. Our results provided a comprehensive transcriptomic and proteomic knowledge on the stability of atherosclerotic plaques.

Dataset Information

A model to predict unstable carotid plaques in population with high risk of stroke.

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A model to predict unstable carotid plaques in population with high risk of stroke.

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