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Evidence synthesis and decision modelling to support complex decisions: stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors for pandemic influenza usage.

ABSTRACT: Objectives: The stockpiling of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) antivirals as a defence against pandemic influenza is a significant public health policy decision that must be made despite a lack of conclusive evidence from randomised controlled trials regarding the effectiveness of NAIs on important clinical end points such as mortality. The objective of this study was to determine whether NAIs should be stockpiled for treatment of pandemic influenza on the basis of current evidence. Methods: A decision model for stockpiling was designed. Data on previous pandemic influenza epidemiology was combined with data on the effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality obtained from a recent individual participant meta-analysis using observational data. Evidence synthesis techniques and a bias modelling method for observational data were used to incorporate the evidence into the model. The stockpiling decision was modelled for adults (≥16 years old) and the United Kingdom was used as an example. The main outcome was the expected net benefits of stockpiling in monetary terms. Health benefits were estimated from deaths averted through stockpiling. Results: After adjusting for biases in the estimated effectiveness of NAIs, the expected net benefit of stockpiling in the baseline analysis was £444 million, assuming a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY ($31,000/QALY). The decision would therefore be to stockpile NAIs. There was a greater probability that the stockpile would not be utilised than utilised. However, the rare but catastrophic losses from a severe pandemic justified the decision to stockpile. Conclusions: Taking into account the available epidemiological data and evidence of effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality, including potential biases, a decision maker should stockpile anti-influenza medication in keeping with the postulated decision rule.

SUBMITTER: Watson SI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5365214 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. RESULTS:The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. CONCLUSIONS:The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software.

Project description:The fight against the emergence of mutant influenza strains has led to the screening of an increasing number of compounds for inhibitory activity against influenza neuraminidase. This study explores the chemical space of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), which provides an opportunity to obtain further molecular insights regarding the underlying basis of their bioactivity. In particular, a large set of 347 and 175 NAIs against influenza A and B, respectively, was compiled from the literature. Molecular and quantum chemical descriptors were obtained from low-energy conformational structures geometrically optimized at the PM6 level. The bioactivities of NAIs were classified as active or inactive according to their half maximum inhibitory concentration (IC50) value in which IC50 < 1µM and ≥ 10µM were defined as active and inactive compounds, respectively. Interpretable decision rules were derived from a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model established using a set of substructure descriptors via decision tree analysis. Univariate analysis, feature importance analysis from decision tree modeling and molecular scaffold analysis were performed on both data sets for discriminating important structural features amongst active and inactive NAIs. Good predictive performance was achieved as deduced from accuracy and Matthews correlation coefficient values in excess of 81% and 0.58, respectively, for both influenza A and B NAIs. Furthermore, molecular docking was employed to investigate the binding modes and their moiety preferences of active NAIs against both influenza A and B neuraminidases. Moreover, novel NAIs with robust binding fitness towards influenza A and B neuraminidase were generated via combinatorial library enumeration and their binding fitness was on par or better than FDA-approved drugs. The results from this study are anticipated to be beneficial for guiding the rational drug design of novel NAIs for treating influenza infections.

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Evidence synthesis and decision modelling to support complex decisions: stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors for pandemic influenza usage.

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