Dataset Information

Spatially Correlated Time Series and Ecological Niche Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan.

ABSTRACT: Leishmaniasis is the third most common vector-borne disease and a very important protozoan infection. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of the most common types of leishmaniasis infectious diseases with up to 1.2 million occurrences of new cases each year worldwide. A dynamic transmission multivariate time series model was applied to the data to account for overdispersion and evaluate the effects of three environmental layers as well as seasonality in the data. Furthermore, ecological niche modeling was used to study the geographically suitable conditions for cutaneous leishmaniasis using temperature, precipitation and altitude as environmental layers, together with the leishmaniasis presence data. A retrospective analysis of the cutaneous leishmaniasis spatial data in Afghanistan between 2003 and 2009 indicates a steady increase from 2003 to 2007, a small decrease in 2008, and then another increase in 2009. An upward trend and regularly repeating patterns of highs and lows were observed related to the months of the year, which suggests seasonality effect in the data. Two peaks were observed in the disease occurrence-January to March and September to December-which coincide with the cold period. Ecological niche modelling indicates that precipitation has the greatest contribution to the potential distribution of leishmaniasis.

SUBMITTER: Adegboye OA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5369145 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatially Correlated Time Series and Ecological Niche Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan.

Adegboye Oyelola A OA Adegboye Majeed M

International journal of environmental research and public health 20170317 3

Leishmaniasis is the third most common vector-borne disease and a very important protozoan infection. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of the most common types of leishmaniasis infectious diseases with up to 1.2 million occurrences of new cases each year worldwide. A dynamic transmission multivariate time series model was applied to the data to account for overdispersion and evaluate the effects of three environmental layers as well as seasonality in the data. Furthermore, ecological niche modelin ...[more]

PMID: 28304356

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Project description:Background and objectivesCutaneous leishmaniasis is responsible for chronic and disfiguring skin lesions resulting in morbidity and social stigma. The gold standard to diagnose cutaneous leishmaniasis is microscopy but has a variable sensitivity and requires trained personnel. Using four scenarios, the objective of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of microscopy with two new tools: Loopamp™ Leishmania Detection Kit (LAMP) and CL Detect™ Rapid Test (RDT).MethodsData related to the cost and accuracy of these tools were collected at the clinic of the National Malaria and Leishmaniasis Control Program in Kabul, Afghanistan. The effectiveness estimates were measured based on the tools' performance but also indirectly, using the disability-adjusted life years. A decision tree was designed in TreeAge Healthcare Pro 2016, combined with a Markov model representing the natural history of cutaneous leishmaniasis. In addition to a deterministic analysis, univariate sensitivity and probabilistic analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results.ResultsIf the tools are compared at the National Malaria and Leishmaniasis Control Program level in a period of low incidence, microscopy remains the preferred option. LAMP becomes more appropriate during cutaneous leishmaniasis seasons or outbreaks when its capacity to process several tests (e.g. up to 48) at a time can be maximised. RDT has a cost similar to microscopy when used at the reference clinic but as it is relatively easy to use, it could be implemented at the peripheral level, which would become cheaper than employing microscopy at the reference clinic. Moreover, combining RDT with microscopy or LAMP at the reference clinic for the negative suspects is economically more interesting than directly performing LAMP or microscopy respectively on all cutaneous leishmaniasis suspects at the reference clinic.ConclusionsWhen taking advantage of their respective strengths, LAMP and RDT can prove to be cost-effective alternatives to using microscopy alone at the reference clinic.

Project description:The present health economic evaluation in Afghanistan aims to support public health decision makers and health care managers to allocate resources efficiently to appropriate treatments for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) elicited by Leishmania tropica or Leishmania major.A decision tree was used to analyse the cost and the effectiveness of two wound care regimens versus intra-lesional antimony in CL patients in Afghanistan. Costs were collected from a societal perspective. Effectiveness was measured in wound free days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental net monetary benefit (NMB) were calculated. The model was parameterized with baseline parameters, sensitivity ranges, and parameter distributions. Finally, the model was simulated and results were evaluated with deterministic and probability sensitivity analyses. Final outcomes were the efficiency of the regimens and a budget impact analysis in the context of Afghanistan.Average costs per patients were US$ 11 (SE?=?0.016) (Group I: Intra-dermal Sodium Stibogluconate [IL SSG]), US$ 16 (SE?=?7.58) (Group II: Electro-thermo-debridement [ETD]?+?Moist wound treatment [MWT]) and US$ 25 (SE?=?0.48) (Group III: MWT) in patients with a single chronic CL ulcer. From a societal perspective the budget impact analysis shows that the regimens' drug costs are lower than indirect disease cost. Average effectiveness in wound free days are 177 (SE?=?0.36) in Group II, 147 (SE?=?0.33) in Group III, and 129 (SE?=?0.27) in Group I. The ICER of Group II versus Group I was US$ 0.09 and Group III versus Group I US$ 0.77, which is very cost-effective with a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 2 per wound free day. Within a Monte-Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis Group II was cost-effective in 80% of the cases starting at a willingness-to-pay of 80 cent per wound free day.Group II provided the most cost-effective treatment. The non-treatment alternative is not an option in the management of chronic CL ulcers. MWT of Group III should at least be practiced. The cost-effectiveness of Group III depends on the number of dressings necessary until complete wound closure.

Dataset Information

Spatially Correlated Time Series and Ecological Niche Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan.

Publications

Spatially Correlated Time Series and Ecological Niche Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan.

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