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Strong influence of behavioral dynamics on the ability of testing and treating HIV to stop transmission.

ABSTRACT: Choosing between strategies to control HIV transmission with antivirals requires understanding both the dynamics affecting those strategies' effectiveness and what causes those dynamics. Alternating episodes of high and low contact rates (episodic risk) interact with increased transmission probabilities during early infection to strongly influence HIV transmission dynamics. To elucidate the mechanics of this interaction and how these alter the effectiveness of universal test and treat (UT8T) strategies, we formulated a model of UT8T effects. Analysis of this model shows how and why changing the dynamics of episodic risk changes the fraction of early transmissions (FET) and the basic reproduction number (R0) and consequently causes UT8T to vary from easily eliminating transmission to having little effect. As the length of risk episodes varies from days to lifetimes, FET first increases, then falls. Endemic prevalence varies similarly. R0, in contrast, increases monotonically and is the major determinant of UT8T effects. At some levels of episodic risk, FET can be high, but eradication is easy because R0 is low. At others FET is lower, but a high R0 makes eradication impossible and control ineffective. Thus changes in individual risk over time must be measured and analyzed to plan effective control strategies with antivirals.

SUBMITTER: Henry CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5386110 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Strong influence of behavioral dynamics on the ability of testing and treating HIV to stop transmission.

Henry Christopher J CJ Koopman James S JS

Scientific reports 20150422

Choosing between strategies to control HIV transmission with antivirals requires understanding both the dynamics affecting those strategies' effectiveness and what causes those dynamics. Alternating episodes of high and low contact rates (episodic risk) interact with increased transmission probabilities during early infection to strongly influence HIV transmission dynamics. To elucidate the mechanics of this interaction and how these alter the effectiveness of universal test and treat (UT8T) str ...[more]

PMID: 25902018

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Project description:HIV-1-specific cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) with strong abilities to suppress HIV-1 replication and recognize most circulating HIV-1 strains are candidates for effector T cells for cure treatment and prophylactic AIDS vaccine. Previous studies demonstrated that the existence of CTLs specific for 11 epitopes was significantly associated with good clinical outcomes in Japan, although CTLs specific for one of these epitopes select for escape mutations. However, it remains unknown whether the CTLs specific for the remaining 10 epitopes suppress HIV-1 replication in vitro and recognize circulating HIV-1. Here, we investigated the abilities of these CTLs to suppress HIV-1 replication and to recognize variants in circulating HIV-1. CTL clones specific for 10 epitopes had strong abilities to suppress HIV-1 replication in vitro The ex vivo and in vitro analyses of T-cell responses to variant epitope peptides showed that the T cells specific for 10 epitopes recognized mutant peptides which are detected in 84.1% to 98.8% of the circulating HIV-1 strains found in HIV-1-infected Japanese individuals. In addition, the T cells specific for 5 epitopes well recognized target cells infected with 7 mutant viruses that had been detected in >5% of tested individuals. Taken together, these results suggest that CTLs specific for the 10 epitopes effectively suppress HIV-1 replication and broadly recognize the circulating HIV-1 strains in the HIV-1-infected individuals. This study suggests the use of these T cells in clinical trials.IMPORTANCE In recent T-cell AIDS vaccine trials, the vaccines did not prevent HIV-1 infection, although HIV-1-specific T cells were induced in the vaccinated individuals, suggesting that the T cells have a weak ability to suppress HIV-1 replication and fail to recognize circulating HIV-1. We previously demonstrated that the T-cell responses to 10 epitopes were significantly associated with good clinical outcome. However, there is no direct evidence that these T cells have strong abilities to suppress HIV-1 replication and recognize circulating HIV-1. Here, we demonstrated that the T cells specific for the 10 epitopes had strong abilities to suppress HIV-1 replication in vitro Moreover, the T cells cross-recognized most of the circulating HIV-1 in HIV-1-infected individuals. This study suggests the use of T cells specific for these 10 epitopes in clinical trials of T-cell vaccines as a cure treatment.

Project description:BackgroundEthiopia is one of the sub-Saharan countries hit hard by the HIV epidemic. Previous studies have shown that subtype C dominates the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic, but the evolutionary and temporal dynamics of HIV-1 in Ethiopia have not been closely scrutinized. Understanding the evolutionary and epidemiological pattern of HIV is vital to monitor the spread, evaluate and implement HIV prevention strategies.MethodsWe analyzed 1,276 Ethiopian HIV-1 subtype C polymerase (pol sequences), including 144 newly generated sequences, collected from different parts of the country from 1986 to 2017. We employed state-of-art maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylodynamic analyses to comprehensively describe the evolutionary dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to estimate the dynamics of the effective population size (Ne) and reproductive numbers (Re) through time for the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia.ResultsOur analysis revealed that the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic originated from two independent introductions at the beginning of the 1970s and 1980s from eastern and southern African countries, respectively, followed by epidemic growth reaching its maximum in the early 1990s. We identified three large clusters with a majority of Ethiopian sequences. Phylodynamic analyses revealed that all three clusters were characterized by high transmission rates during the early epidemic, followed by a decline in HIV-1 transmissions after 1990. Re was high (4-6) during the earlier time of the epidemic but dropped significantly and remained low (Re < 1) after the mid-1990. Similarly, with an expected shift in time, the effective population size (Ne) steadily increased until the beginning of 2000, followed by a decline and stabilization until recent years. The phylodynamic analyses corroborated the modeled UNAIDS incidence and prevalence estimates.ConclusionThe rapid decline in the HIV epidemic took place a decade before introducing antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia and coincided with early behavioral, preventive, and awareness interventions implemented in the country. Our findings highlight the importance of behavioral interventions and antiretroviral therapy scale-up to halt and maintain HIV transmissions at low levels (Re < 1). The phylodynamic analyses provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

Project description:ObjectivesTo assess HIV-1 diversity, transmission dynamics and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in Angola, five years after ART scale-up.MethodsPopulation sequencing of the pol gene was performed on 139 plasma samples collected in 2009 from drug-naive HIV-1 infected individuals living in Luanda. HIV-1 subtypes were determined using phylogenetic analysis. Drug resistance mutations were identified using the Calibrated Population Resistance Tool (CPR). Transmission networks were determined using phylogenetic analysis of all Angolan sequences present in the databases. Evolutionary trends were determined by comparison with a similar survey performed in 2001.Results47.1% of the viruses were pure subtypes (all except B), 47.1% were recombinants and 5.8% were untypable. The prevalence of subtype A decreased significantly from 2001 to 2009 (40.0% to 10.8%, P = 0.0019) while the prevalence of unique recombinant forms (URFs) increased > 2-fold (40.0% to 83.1%, P < 0.0001). The most frequent URFs comprised untypable sequences with subtypes H (U/H, n = 7, 10.8%), A (U/A, n = 6, 9.2%) and G (G/U, n = 4, 6.2%). Newly identified U/H recombinants formed a highly supported monophyletic cluster suggesting a local and common origin. TDR mutation K103N was found in one (0.7%) patient (1.6% in 2001). Out of the 364 sequences sampled for transmission network analysis, 130 (35.7%) were part of a transmission network. Forty eight transmission clusters were identified; the majority (56.3%) comprised sequences sampled in 2008-2010 in Luanda which is consistent with a locally fuelled epidemic. Very low genetic distance was found in 27 transmission pairs sampled in the same year, suggesting recent transmission events.ConclusionsTransmission of drug resistant strains was still negligible in Luanda in 2009, five years after the scale-up of ART. The dominance of small and recent transmission clusters and the emergence of new URFs are consistent with a rising HIV-1 epidemics mainly driven by heterosexual transmission.

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Strong influence of behavioral dynamics on the ability of testing and treating HIV to stop transmission.

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Strong influence of behavioral dynamics on the ability of testing and treating HIV to stop transmission.

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