Dataset Information

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

ABSTRACT: A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

SUBMITTER: Chen K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5387110 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

Chen Kai K Horton Radley M RM Bader Daniel A DA Lesk Corey C Jiang Leiwen L Jones Bryan B Zhou Lian L Chen Xiaodong X Bi Jun J Kinney Patrick L PL

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987) 20170222

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-s ...[more]

PMID: 28237309

Similar Datasets

Project description:Contrary to the common expectation that the reference evapotranspiration (ETo), which is an indicator of the atmospheric evaporation capability, increases in warming climate, the decline of the ETo has been reported worldwide, and this contradiction between the expected increasing ETo and the observed decreasing one is now termed the "evaporation paradox". Based on the updated meteorological data (1960-2019), we separately detected the spatiotemporal characteristics and the causes of the "evaporation paradox" in three subregions, namely Huaibei, Jianghuai, and Sunan, and throughout the entire province of Jiangsu in southeastern China. Different from the reported continuous unidirectional variations in the ETo, in the province of Jiangsu, it generally showed a decreasing trend before 1990 but followed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, which led to the different characteristics of the "evaporation paradox" in the periods from 1960 to 1989, from 1990 to 2019, and from 1960 to 2019. In the first 30 years, the reduction of the wind speed (WS) was the main reason for the decreased ETo, which consequently gave rise to the "evaporation paradox" in spring and winter in the Huaibei region and only in winter in the two other subregions and throughout the entire province. We noticed that the "evaporation paradox" in spring in the Sunan region was expressed by the decreased daily mean air temperature (Tmean) and the increased ETo which was chiefly induced by the decreased relative humidity (RH) and the increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD). After 1990, the decreased WS also dominated the decreased ETo and resulted in the "evaporation paradox" in winter in the Jianghuai region. Furthermore, the decreased sunshine hour (SH) was the main factor influencing the decreased ETo, thereby inducing the "evaporation paradox" in summer and autumn in the Jianghuai region and only in autumn in the Huaibei region and throughout the whole province from 1990 to 2019. In the whole study period from 1960 to 2019, the decreased SH was also found to be responsible for the decreased ETo and for the "evaporation paradox" in summer in all the subregions and throughout the whole province. However, regarding the "evaporation paradox" in autumn, in winter, and in the entire year in the Huaibei region and throughout the whole province, the observed decreased ETo was largely due to the reduced WS from 1960 to 2019. In summary, in addition to the air temperature, the ETo has shifted due to the other meteorological variables (especially the WS, the SH, and the VPD) and shaped the unique spatiotemporal characteristics of the "evaporation paradox" in the province of Jiangsu in southeastern China. Moreover, future studies and simulations addressing the regional climate change and hydrological cycles should take account of the changeable key meteorological variables in different subregions and seasons of the province of Jiangsu.

Project description:BackgroundIn recent years, births to older mothers and multiparous mothers have increased rapidly with the change of birth policy in China. And mothers of advanced age are more likely to have maternal complications and poor birth outcomes. We aimed to estimate the recent trends and underlying risk factors of maternal mortality.MethodsIn this systematic assessment, we used data from the National Maternal and Child Health Routine Reporting System (2013-2018), Jiangsu Provincial Maternal Mortality Surveillance System (2017-2018), the Integrated National Mortality Surveillance System (2018), City Statistical Yearbooks (2018), City Health Statistical Yearbooks (2018). The factors associated with maternal mortality ratio (MMR) were explored using the stepwise regression analysis and cluster analysis.ResultsThe MMR maintained at low levels between 2013 and 2016 and there was a slight increase in maternal mortality after 2016 in Jiangsu province. With the implementation of the China's universal two child policies, the percentage of multiparous mothers ascended from 34.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 34.1-34.3%) in 2013 to 51.4% (95% CI = 51.3-51.6%) in 2018 (beta = 3.88, P < 0.001). Consistently, the percentage of advanced maternal age (≥ 35) increased from 8.4% (95% CI = 8.4-8.5%) in 2013 to 10.4% (95% CI = 10.3-10.4%) in 2018 (beta = 0.50, P = 0.012). And we found that the percentage of multiparous mothers and advanced maternal age among maternal deaths were higher than all pregnant women (P < 0.001). In the stepwise regression analysis, four risk factors were significantly associated with maternal mortality ratio (primary industry of gross domestic product (GDP), rate of delivery in maternal and child health hospital, rate of cesarean section and rate of low birth weight). As the results derived from cluster analysis, the relatively developed regions had lower preventable maternal mortality ratio (43.5% (95% CI = 31.2-56.7%) vs. 62.6% (95% CI = 52.3-72.0%), P = 0.027).ConclusionsSince the universal two child policy has been associated with changes in health related birth characteristics: women giving birth have been more likely to be multiparous, and more likely to be aged 35 and over. This somewhat magnifies the impact of differences in economic development and obstetric services on MMR. The findings based on prefecture level data suggest that interventions must target economic development, the health system and maternal risk factors in synergy. These approaches will be of great benefit to control or diminish environmental factors associated with preventable deaths and will effectively reduce MMR and narrow the gap among the different regions.

Dataset Information

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

Publications

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets