The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Vicedo-Cabrera AM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7611104 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.
| S-EPMC7884743 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.
| S-EPMC5387110 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAnthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased summer temperatures in Spain by nearly one degree Celsius on average between 1980 and 2015. However, little is known about the extent to which the association between heat and human mortality has been modified. We here investigate whether the observed warming has been associated with an upward trend in excess mortality attributable to heat or, on the contrary, a decrease in the vulnerability to heat has contributed to a reduction of the mortality burden.Methods and findingsWe analysed a dataset from 47 major cities in Spain for the summer months between 1980 and 2015, which included daily temperatures and 554,491 deaths from circulatory and respiratory causes, by sex. We applied standard quasi-Poisson regression models, controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, and estimated the temporal variation in heat-related mortality with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs). Results pointed to a reduction in the relative risks of cause-specific and cause-sex mortality across the whole range of summer temperatures. These reductions in turn explained the observed downward trends in heat-attributable deaths, with the only exceptions of respiratory diseases for women and both sexes together. The heat-attributable deaths were consistently higher in women than in men for both circulatory and respiratory causes. The main limitation of our study is that we were not able to account for air pollution in the models because of data unavailability.ConclusionsDespite the summer warming observed in Spain between 1980 and 2015, the decline in the vulnerability of the population has contributed to a general downward trend in overall heat-attributable mortality. This reduction occurred in parallel with a decline in the vulnerability difference between men and women for circulatory and cardiorespiratory mortality. Despite these advances, the risk of death remained high for respiratory diseases, and particularly in women.
| S-EPMC6057624 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMultiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios.ObjectivesThis study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments.MethodsWe estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty.ResultsThe range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty.ConclusionsResearchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.
| S-EPMC5783656 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC6150471 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn China, most previous projections of heat-related mortality have been based on modeling studies using global climate models (GCMs), which can help to elucidate the risks of extreme heat events in a changing climate. However, spatiotemporal changes in the health effects of climate change considering specific regional characteristics remain poorly understood. We aimed to use credible climate and population projections to estimate future heatwave-attributable deaths under different emission scenarios and to explore the drivers underlying these patterns of changes.MethodsWe derived climate data from a regional climate model driven by three CMIP5 GCM models and calculated future heatwaves in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future gridded population data were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 assumption with different fertility rates. By applying climate zone-specific exposure-response functions to mortality during heatwave events, we projected the scale of heatwave-attributable deaths under each RCP scenario. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in heatwave-related deaths and main sources of uncertainty using a decomposition method. We compared differences in death burden under the 1.5°C target, which is closely related to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century.FindingsThe number of heatwave-related deaths will increase continuously to the mid-century even under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and will continue increasing throughout the century under RCP8.5. There will be 20,303 deaths caused by heatwaves in 2090 under RCP2.6, 35,025 under RCP4.5, and 72,260 under RCP8.5, with half of all heatwave-related deaths in any scenario concentrated in east and central China. Climate effects are the main driver for the increase in attributable deaths in the near future till 2060, explaining 78% of the total change. Subsequent population decline cannot offset the losses caused by higher incidence of heatwaves and an aging population under RCP8.5. Although health loss under the 1.5°C warming scenario is 1.6-fold higher than the baseline period 1986-2005, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C can reduce the annual mortality burden in China by 3,534 deaths in 2090 compared with RCP2.6 scenarios.InterpretationWith accelerating climate change and population aging, the effects of future heatwaves on human health in China are likely to increase continuously even under a low emission scenario. Significant health benefits are expected if the optimistic 1.5°C goal is achieved, suggesting that carbon neutrality by mid-century is a critical target for China's sustainable development. Policymakers need to tighten climate mitigation policies tailored to local conditions while enhancing climate resilience technically and infrastructurally, especially for vulnerable elderly people.FundingNational Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200), Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z), Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471), and Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004).
| S-EPMC9465423 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOnly little is known about trends in temperature-mortality associations among the most vulnerable subgroups, especially in the areas of central and eastern Europe, which are considered major climatic hotspots in terms of heatwave exposure. Thus, we aimed to assess trends in temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic by sex, age and cause of death, and to quantify the temporal evolution of possible inequalities.MethodsWe collected daily time series of all-cause (1987-2019) and cause-specific (1994-2019) mortality by sex and age category, and population-weighted daily mean 2-metre temperatures for each region of the Czech Republic. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the trends in region-specific temperature-mortality associations, with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive average associations across the country. We then calculated mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures and implemented the indicator of sex- and age-dependent inequalities.ResultsWe observed a similar risk of mortality due to cold temperatures for men and women. Conversely, for warm temperatures, a higher risk was observed for women. Results by age showed a clear pattern of increasing risk due to non-optimum temperatures with increasing age category. The relative risk (RR) related to cold was considerably attenuated in most of the studied subgroups during the study period, whereas an increase in the RR associated with heat was seen in the overall population, in women, in the age category 90+ years and with respect to respiratory causes. Moreover, underlying sex- and age-dependent inequalities experienced substantial growth.ConclusionsOur findings suggest ongoing adaptation to cold temperatures. Mal/adaptation to hot temperatures occurred unequally among population subgroups and resulted in growing inequalities between the sexes and among age categories.
| S-EPMC10859142 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMost studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections.ObjectivesWe assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios.MethodsWe used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June-August 2020-2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths.ResultsWe found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June-August of 2020-2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020-2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June-August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature-mortality RR used to estimate the ANs.ConclusionsThe choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections.
| S-EPMC4256694 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.
| S-EPMC7812774 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures increases the risk of neonatal mortality, but the contribution of climate change to temperature-related neonatal deaths is unknown. We use Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data (n = 40,073) from 29 low- and middle-income countries to estimate the temperature-related burden of neonatal deaths between 2001 and 2019 that is attributable to climate change. We find that across all countries, 4.3% of neonatal deaths were associated with non-optimal temperatures. Climate change was responsible for 32% (range: 19-79%) of heat-related neonatal deaths, while reducing the respective cold-related burden by 30% (range: 10-63%). Climate change has impacted temperature-related neonatal deaths in all study countries, with most pronounced climate-induced losses from increased heat and gains from decreased cold observed in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Future increases in global mean temperatures are expected to exacerbate the heat-related burden, which calls for ambitious mitigation and adaptation measures to safeguard the health of newborns.
| S-EPMC11217431 | biostudies-literature