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Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

ABSTRACT: Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical approximations and numerical simulations in parameter ranges relevant to human population dynamics and ecology, and reproduce continuous-time results in the limit of small transition probabilities. Our model prediction indicates that the population density and dispersal speed are affected by fluctuations in the number of individuals. The discrete-time model displays novel properties owing to the binomial character of the fluctuations: in certain regimes of the growth model, a decrease in time step size drives the system away from the continuum limit. These effects are especially important at local population sizes of <50 individuals, which largely correspond to group sizes of hunter-gatherers. As an application scenario, we model the late Pleistocene dispersal of Homo sapiens into the Americas, and discuss the agreement of model-based estimates of first-arrival dates with archaeological dates in dependence of IBM model parameter settings.

SUBMITTER: Tkachenko N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5398609 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

Tkachenko Natalie N Weissmann John D JD Petersen Wesley P WP Lake George G Zollikofer Christoph P E CPE Callegari Simone S

PloS one 20170420 4

Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical ...[more]

PMID: 28426763

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Project description:Micro-organisms play a central role in every ecosystem and in the global biomass cycle. They are strongly involved in many fields of human interest, from medicine to the food industry and waste control. Nevertheless, most micro-organisms remain almost unknown, and nearly 99% of them have not yet been successfully cultured in vitro. Therefore, new approaches and new tools must be developed in order to understand the collective behaviour of microbial communities in any natural or artificial setting. In particular, theoretical and practical methodologies to deal with such systems at a mesoscopic level of description (covering the range from 100 to 10(8) cells) are required. Individual-based modelling (IBM) has become a widely used tool for describing complex systems made up of autonomous entities, such as ecosystems and social networks. Individual-based models (IBMs) provide some advantages over the traditional whole-population models: (a) they are bottom-up approaches, so they describe the behaviour of a system as a whole by establishing procedural rules for the individuals and for their interactions, and thus allow more realistic assumptions for the model of the individuals than population models do; (b) they permit the introduction of randomness and individual variability, so they can reproduce the diversity found in real systems; and (c) they can account for individual adaptive behaviour to their environmental conditions, so the evolution of the whole system arises from the dynamics that govern individuals in their pursuit of optimal fitness. However, they also present some drawbacks: they lack the clarity of continuous models and may easily become rambling, which makes them difficult to analyse and communicate. All in all, IBMs supply a holistic description of microbial systems and their emerging properties. They are specifically appropriate to deal with microbial communities in non-steady states, and spatially explicit IBMs are particularly appropriate to study laboratory and natural microbiological systems with spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, we review IBM methodology applied to microbiology. We also present some results obtained from the application of Individual Discrete Simulations, an IBM of ours, to the study of bacterial communities, yeast cultures and Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes in vitro cultures of Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes.

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Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

Publications

Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

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