Forecasting electric vehicles sales with univariate and multivariate time series models: The case of China.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Zhang Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5411096 | biostudies-literature | 2017
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Forecasting electric vehicles sales with univariate and multivariate time series models: The case of China.
Zhang Yong Y Zhong Miner M Geng Nana N Jiang Yunjian Y
PloS one 20170501 5
The market demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased in recent years. Suitable models are necessary to understand and forecast EV sales. This study presents a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a univariate time-series model and vector autoregressive model (VAR) as a multivariate model. Empirical results suggest that SSA satisfactorily indicates the evolving trend and provides reasonable results. The VAR model, which comprised exogenous parameters related to the market on a monthly basis ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications, especially in the field of econometrics. These outlying data points tend to produce high forecast errors, which reduce the forecasting performances of the existing bootstrap prediction intervals calculated based on non-robust estimators. In the univariate and multivariate autoregressive time series, we propose a robust bootstrap algorithm for constructing prediction intervals and forecast regions. The proposed procedure is based on the weighted likelihood estimates and weighted residuals. Its finite sample properties are examined via a series of Monte Carlo studies and two empirical data examples.
| S-EPMC9042141 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A variety of advanced machine learning and deep learning algorithms achieve state-of-the-art performance on various temporal processing tasks. However, these methods are heavily energy inefficient—they run mainly on the power hungry CPUs and GPUs. Computing with Spiking Networks, on the other hand, has shown to be energy efficient on specialized neuromorphic hardware, e.g., Loihi, TrueNorth, SpiNNaker, etc. In this work, we present two architectures of spiking models, inspired from the theory of Reservoir Computing and Legendre Memory Units, for the Time Series Classification (TSC) task. Our first spiking architecture is closer to the general Reservoir Computing architecture and we successfully deploy it on Loihi; the second spiking architecture differs from the first by the inclusion of non-linearity in the readout layer. Our second model (trained with Surrogate Gradient Descent method) shows that non-linear decoding of the linearly extracted temporal features through spiking neurons not only achieves promising results, but also offers low computation-overhead by significantly reducing the number of neurons compared to the popular LSM based models—more than 40x reduction with respect to the recent spiking model we compare with. We experiment on five TSC datasets and achieve new SoTA spiking results (—as much as 28.607% accuracy improvement on one of the datasets), thereby showing the potential of our models to address the TSC tasks in a green energy-efficient manner. In addition, we also do energy profiling and comparison on Loihi and CPU to support our claims.
| S-EPMC10285304 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Multivariate time series forecasting is a critical problem in many real-world scenarios. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly enhanced the ability to tackle such problems. However, a primary challenge in time series forecasting comes from the imbalanced time series data that include extreme events. Despite being a small fraction of the data instances, extreme events can have a negative impact on forecasting as they deviate from the majority. However, many recent time series forecasting methods neglect this issue, leading to suboptimal performance. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel model, the Extreme Event Adaptive Gated Recurrent Unit (eGRU), tailored explicitly for forecasting tasks. The eGRU is designed to effectively learn both normal and extreme event patterns within time series data. Furthermore, we introduce a time series data segmentation technique that divides the input sequence into segments, each comprising multiple time steps. This segmentation empowers the eGRU to capture data patterns at different time step resolutions while simultaneously reducing the overall input length. We conducted comprehensive experiments on four real-world benchmark datasets to evaluate the eGRU's performance. Our results showcase its superiority over vanilla RNNs, LSTMs, GRUs, and other state-of-the-art RNN variants in multivariate time series forecasting. Additionally, we conducted ablation studies to demonstrate the consistently superior performance of eGRU in generating accurate forecasts while incorporating a diverse range of labeling results.
| S-EPMC10844338 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Transformers have achieved remarkable performance in multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting due to their capability to capture long-term dependencies. However, the canonical attention mechanism has two key limitations: (1) its quadratic time complexity limits the sequence length, and (2) it generates future values from the entire historical sequence. To address this, we propose a Dozer Attention mechanism consisting of three sparse components: (1) Local, each query exclusively attends to keys within a localized window of neighboring time steps. (2) Stride, enables each query to attend to keys at predefined intervals. (3) Vary, allows queries to selectively attend to keys from a subset of the historical sequence. Notably, the size of this subset dynamically expands as forecasting horizons extend. Those three components are designed to capture essential attributes of MTS data, including locality, seasonality, and global temporal dependencies. Additionally, we present the Dozerformer Framework, incorporating the Dozer Attention mechanism for the MTS forecasting task. We evaluated the proposed Dozerformer framework with recent state-of-the-art methods on nine benchmark datasets and confirmed its superior performance. The experimental results indicate that excluding a subset of historical time steps from the time series forecasting process does not compromise accuracy while significantly improving efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/GRYGY1215/Dozerformer.
| S-EPMC11237001 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper develops a quantile hidden semi-Markov regression to jointly estimate multiple quantiles for the analysis of multivariate time series. The approach is based upon the Multivariate Asymmetric Laplace (MAL) distribution, which allows to model the quantiles of all univariate conditional distributions of a multivariate response simultaneously, incorporating the correlation structure among the outcomes. Unobserved serial heterogeneity across observations is modeled by introducing regime-dependent parameters that evolve according to a latent finite-state semi-Markov chain. Exploiting the hierarchical representation of the MAL, inference is carried out using an efficient Expectation-Maximization algorithm based on closed form updates for all model parameters, without parametric assumptions about the states' sojourn distributions. The validity of the proposed methodology is analyzed both by a simulation study and through the empirical analysis of air pollutant concentrations in a small Italian city.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11222-022-10130-1.
| S-EPMC9360757 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Capacity planning of ICUs is essential for effective management of health safety, quality of patient care, and the allocation of ICU resources. Whereas ICU length of stay (LOS) may be estimated using patient information such as severity of illness scoring systems, ICU census is impacted by both patient LOS and arrival patterns. We set out to develop and evaluate an ICU census forecasting algorithm using the Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS) and the Nine Equivalents of Nursing Manpower Use Score (NEMS) for capacity planning purposes.DesignRetrospective observational study.SettingWe developed the algorithm using data from the Medical-Surgical ICU (MSICU) at University Hospital, London, Canada and validated using data from the Critical Care Trauma Centre (CCTC) at Victoria Hospital, London, Canada.PatientsAdult patient admissions (7,434) to the MSICU and (9,075) to the CCTC from 2015 to 2021.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsWe developed an Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model that forecasts patients arriving in the ICU and a survival model using MODS, NEMS, and other factors to estimate patient LOS. The models were combined to create an algorithm that forecasts ICU census for planning horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. We evaluated the algorithm quality using several fit metrics. The root mean squared error ranged from 2.055 to 2.890 beds/d and the mean absolute percentage error from 9.4% to 13.2%. We show that this forecasting algorithm provides a better fit when compared with a moving average or a time series model that directly forecasts ICU census. Additionally, we evaluated the performance of the algorithm using data during the global COVID-19 pandemic and found that the error of the forecasts increased proportionally with the number of COVID-19 patients in the ICU.ConclusionsIt is possible to develop accurate tools to forecast ICU census. This type of algorithm may be important to clinicians and managers when planning ICU capacity as well as staffing and surgical demand planning over a short time horizon.
| S-EPMC10166346 | biostudies-literature
Project description:State-of-the-art multivariate forecasting methods are restricted to low dimensional tasks, linear dependencies and short horizons. The technological advances (notably the Big data revolution) are instead shifting the focus to problems characterized by a large number of variables, non-linear dependencies and long forecasting horizons. In the last few years, the majority of the best performing techniques for multivariate forecasting have been based on deep-learning models. However, such models are characterized by high requirements in terms of data availability and computational resources and suffer from a lack of interpretability. To cope with the limitations of these methods, we propose an extension to the DFML framework, a hybrid forecasting technique inspired by the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) approach, a successful forecasting methodology in econometrics. This extension improves the capabilities of the DFM approach, by implementing and assessing both linear and non-linear factor estimation techniques as well as model-driven and data-driven factor forecasting techniques. We assess several method integrations within the DFML, and we show that the proposed technique provides competitive results both in terms of forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency on multiple very large-scale (>102 variables and > 103 samples) real forecasting tasks.
| S-EPMC8460934 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMissing observations within the univariate time series are common in real-life and cause analytical problems in the flow of the analysis. Imputation of missing values is an inevitable step in every incomplete univariate time series. Most of the existing studies focus on comparing the distributions of imputed data. There is a gap of knowledge on how different imputation methods for univariate time series affect the forecasting performance of time series models. We evaluated the prediction performance of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network models on imputed time series data using ten different imputation techniques.MethodsMissing values were generated under missing completely at random (MCAR) mechanism at 10%, 15%, 25%, and 35% rates of missingness using complete data of 24-h ambulatory diastolic blood pressure readings. The performance of the mean, Kalman filtering, linear, spline, and Stineman interpolations, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), simple moving average (SMA), k-nearest neighborhood (KNN), and last-observation-carried-forward (LOCF) imputation techniques on the time series structure and the prediction performance of the LSTM and ARIMA models were compared on imputed and original data.ResultsAll imputation techniques either increased or decreased the data autocorrelation and with this affected the forecasting performance of the ARIMA and LSTM algorithms. The best imputation technique did not guarantee better predictions obtained on the imputed data. The mean imputation, LOCF, KNN, Stineman, and cubic spline interpolations methods performed better for a small rate of missingness. Interpolation with EWMA and Kalman filtering yielded consistent performances across all scenarios of missingness. Disregarding the imputation methods, the LSTM resulted with a slightly better predictive accuracy among the best performing ARIMA and LSTM models; otherwise, the results varied. In our small sample, ARIMA tended to perform better on data with higher autocorrelation.ConclusionsWe recommend to the researchers that they consider Kalman smoothing techniques, interpolation techniques (linear, spline, and Stineman), moving average techniques (SMA and EWMA) for imputing univariate time series data as they perform well on both data distribution and forecasting with ARIMA and LSTM models. The LSTM slightly outperforms ARIMA models, however, for small samples, ARIMA is simpler and faster to execute.
| S-EPMC11670515 | biostudies-literature
Project description:China has made great progress in the electrification of passenger cars, and the sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have exceeded 10%. We applied a life-cycle assessment (LCA) method to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the past (2015), present (2020), and future (2030) BEVs, incorporating China's carbon peaking and neutrality policies, which would substantially reduce emissions from the electricity, operation efficiency, metallurgy, and battery manufacturing industries. BEVs can reduce cradle-to-grave (C2G) CO2 emissions by ∼40% compared with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) on the national-average level in 2020, far more significant than the benefit in 2015. Improved BEV operating efficiency was the largest factor driving emission reductions from 2015 to 2020. Looking forward to 2030, China's BEVs equipped with nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries can achieve a further 43% of CO2 emissions reductions, among which 51 g km-1 of reduction is from the well-to-wheels (WTW) stage majorly owing to the further cleaner electricity mix, while other vehicle-cycle benefits are mainly from the advancement of battery (12 g km-1) and related metal materials (5 g km-1). We highlight the importance of better material efficiency and synchronized decarbonization through the automotive industrial chain in promoting climate mitigation from transport activities.
| S-EPMC10187665 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 is a disease-causing coronavirus strain that emerged in December 2019 that led to an ongoing global pandemic. The ability to anticipate the pandemic's path is critical. This is important in order to determine how to combat and track its spread. COVID-19 data is an example of time-series data where several methods can be applied for forecasting. Although various time-series forecasting models are available, it is difficult to draw broad theoretical conclusions regarding their relative merits. This paper presents an empirical evaluation of several time-series models for forecasting COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths in Saudi Arabia. In particular, seven forecasting models were trained using autoregressive integrated moving average, TBATS, exponential smoothing, cubic spline, simple exponential smoothing Holt, and HoltWinters. The models were built using publicly available daily data of COVID-19 during the period of 24 March 2020 to 5 April 2021 reported in Saudi Arabia. The experimental results indicate that the ARIMA model had a smaller prediction error in forecasting confirmed cases, which is consistent with results reported in the literature, while cubic spline showed better predictions for recoveries and deaths. As more data become available, a fluctuation in the forecasting-accuracy metrics was observed, possibly due to abrupt changes in the data.
| S-EPMC8393561 | biostudies-literature