Dataset Information

Stochastic modelling of membrane filtration.

ABSTRACT: Membrane fouling during particle filtration occurs through a variety of mechanisms, including internal pore clogging by contaminants, coverage of pore entrances and deposition on the membrane surface. In this paper, we present an efficient method for modelling the behaviour of a filter, which accounts for different retention mechanisms, particle sizes and membrane geometries. The membrane is assumed to be composed of a series of, possibly interconnected, pores. The central feature is a conductivity function, which describes the blockage of each individual pore as particles arrive, which is coupled with a mechanism to account for the stochastic nature of the arrival times of particles at the pore. The result is a system of ordinary differential equations based on the pore-level interactions. We demonstrate how our model can accurately describe a wide range of filtration scenarios. Specifically, we consider a case where blocking via multiple mechanisms can occur simultaneously, which have previously required the study through individual models; the filtration of a combination of small and large particles by a track-etched membrane and particle separation using interconnected pore networks. The model is significantly faster than comparable stochastic simulations for small networks, enabling its use as a tool for efficient future simulations.

SUBMITTER: Krupp AU

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5415697 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stochastic modelling of membrane filtration.

Krupp A U AU Griffiths I M IM Please C P CP

Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 20170426 2200

Membrane fouling during particle filtration occurs through a variety of mechanisms, including internal pore clogging by contaminants, coverage of pore entrances and deposition on the membrane surface. In this paper, we present an efficient method for modelling the behaviour of a filter, which accounts for different retention mechanisms, particle sizes and membrane geometries. The membrane is assumed to be composed of a series of, possibly interconnected, pores. The central feature is a <i>conduc ...[more]

PMID: 28484337

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Project description:BackgroundInfectious diseases such as SARS and H1N1 can significantly impact people's lives and cause severe social and economic damages. Recent outbreaks have stressed the urgency of effective research on the dynamics of infectious disease spread. However, it is difficult to predict when and where outbreaks may emerge and how infectious diseases spread because many factors affect their transmission, and some of them may be unknown.MethodsOne feasible means to promptly detect an outbreak and track the progress of disease spread is to implement surveillance systems in regional or national health and medical centres. The accumulated surveillance data, including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information can provide valuable information that can be exploited to better understand and model the dynamics of infectious disease spread. The aim of this work is to develop and empirically evaluate a stochastic model that allows the investigation of transmission patterns of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations.ResultsWe test the proposed model on simulation data and apply it to the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. In the simulation experiment, our model achieves high accuracy in parameter estimation (less than 10.0 % mean absolute percentage error). In terms of the forward prediction of case incidence, the mean absolute percentage errors are 17.3 % for the simulation experiment and 20.0 % for the experiment on the real surveillance data.ConclusionWe propose a stochastic model to study the dynamics of infectious disease spread in heterogeneous populations from temporal-spatial surveillance data. The proposed model is evaluated using both simulated data and the real data from the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Hong Kong and achieves acceptable prediction accuracy. We believe that our model can provide valuable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of disease spread and analyse its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts.

Project description:Coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to be a global threat to public health. As the matter of fact, it needs unreserved effort to monitor the prevalence of the virus. However, applying an effective prediction of the prevalence is thought to be the fundamental requirement to effectively control the spreading rate. Time series models have extensively been considered as the convenient methods to predict the prevalence or spreading rate of the disease. This study, therefore, aimed to apply the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling approach for projecting coronavirus (COVID-19) prevalence patterns in East Africa Countries, mainly Ethiopia, Djibouti, Sudan and Somalia. The data for the study were obtained from the reports of confirmed COVID-19 cases by the official website of Johns Hopkins University from 13th March, 2020 to 30th June, 2020.The results of the study, then, showed that in the coming four month, the number of COVID-19 positive people in Ethiopia may reach up to 56,610 from 5,846 on June 30, 2020 in average-rate scenario. However, in worst case scenario forecast, the model showed that the cases will be around 84,497. The analysis further depicted that with average interventions and control scenario, cumulative number of infected persons in Djibouti, Somalia and Sudan will increase from 4,656, 2,904 and 9,258 respectively at the end of June to 8,336, 3,961 and 21,388, which is by the end of October, 2020, after four-months. But, with insufficient intervention, the number of infected persons may grow quickly and reach up to 14,072, 10,037 and 38,174 in Djibouti, Somalia and Sudan respectively. Generally, the extent of the coronavirus spreading was increased from time to time in the past four month, until 30 th June, 2020, and it is expected to continue quicker than before for the coming 4-month, until the end of October, 2020, in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan and more rapidly than before in Sudan and Ethiopia, while the peak will remain unknown yet. Therefore, an effective implementation of the preventive measures and a rigorous compliance by avoiding negligence with the rules such as prohibiting public gatherings, travel restrictions, personal protection measures, and social distancing may alleviate the spreading rates of the virus, particularly, Sudan and Ethiopia. Moreover, more efforts should be exerted on Ethiopian side to control the population movement across all the border areas and to strengthen border quarantining. Further, through updating more new data with continuous reconsideration of predictive model, provide useful and more precise prediction. Applying, ARIMAX-Transfer Function model in region-wise by take in to consideration of climatic data like temperature and humidity in each countries looking spatial pattern for reliable measure of COVID-19 prevalence.

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Stochastic modelling of membrane filtration.

Publications

Stochastic modelling of membrane filtration.

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