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Radiographic progression with nonrising PSA in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: post hoc analysis of PREVAIL.

ABSTRACT: Advanced prostate cancer is a phenotypically diverse disease that evolves through multiple clinical courses. PSA level is the most widely used parameter for disease monitoring, but it has well-recognized limitations. Unlike in clinical trials, in practice, clinicians may rely on PSA monitoring alone to determine disease status on therapy. This approach has not been adequately tested.Chemotherapy-naive asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic men (n=872) with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) who were treated with the androgen receptor inhibitor enzalutamide in the PREVAIL study were analyzed post hoc for rising versus nonrising PSA (empirically defined as >1.05 vs ?1.05 times the PSA level from 3 months earlier) at the time of radiographic progression. Clinical characteristics and disease outcomes were compared between the rising and nonrising PSA groups.Of 265 PREVAIL patients with radiographic progression and evaluable PSA levels on the enzalutamide arm, nearly one-quarter had a nonrising PSA. Median progression-free survival in this cohort was 8.3 months versus 11.1 months in the rising PSA cohort (hazard ratio 1.68; 95% confidence interval 1.26-2.23); overall survival was similar between the two groups, although less than half of patients in either group were still at risk at 24 months. Baseline clinical characteristics of the two groups were similar.Non-rising PSA at radiographic progression is a common phenomenon in mCRPC patients treated with enzalutamide. As restaging in advanced prostate cancer patients is often guided by increases in PSA levels, our results demonstrate that disease progression on enzalutamide can occur without rising PSA levels. Therefore, a disease monitoring strategy that includes imaging not entirely reliant on serial serum PSA measurement may more accurately identify disease progression.

SUBMITTER: Bryce AH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5435962 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Radiographic progression with nonrising PSA in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: post hoc analysis of PREVAIL.

Bryce A H AH Alumkal J J JJ Armstrong A A Higano C S CS Iversen P P Sternberg C N CN Rathkopf D D Loriot Y Y de Bono J J Tombal B B Abhyankar S S Lin P P Krivoshik A A Phung D D Beer T M TM

Prostate cancer and prostatic diseases 20170124 2

<h4>Background</h4>Advanced prostate cancer is a phenotypically diverse disease that evolves through multiple clinical courses. PSA level is the most widely used parameter for disease monitoring, but it has well-recognized limitations. Unlike in clinical trials, in practice, clinicians may rely on PSA monitoring alone to determine disease status on therapy. This approach has not been adequately tested.<h4>Methods</h4>Chemotherapy-naive asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic men (n=872) with metastat ...[more]

PMID: 28117385

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Project description:Importance:Drug development for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer has been limited by a lack of clinically relevant trial end points short of overall survival (OS). Radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) as defined by the Prostate Cancer Clinical Trials Working Group 2 (PCWG2) is a candidate end point that represents a clinically meaningful benefit to patients. Objective:To demonstrate the robustness of the PCWG2 definition and to examine the relationship between rPFS and OS. Design, Setting, and Participants:PREVAIL was a phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled multinational study that enrolled 1717 chemotherapy-naive men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer from September 2010 through September 2012. The data were analyzed in November 2016. Interventions:Patients were randomized 1:1 to enzalutamide 160 mg or placebo until confirmed radiographic disease progression or a skeletal-related event and initiation of either cytotoxic chemotherapy or an investigational agent for prostate cancer treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures:Sensitivity analyses (SAs) of investigator-assessed rPFS were performed using the final rPFS data cutoff (May 6, 2012; 439 events; SA1) and the interim OS data cutoff (September 16, 2013; 540 events; SA2). Additional SAs using investigator-assessed rPFS from the final rPFS data cutoff assessed the impact of skeletal-related events (SA3), clinical progression (SA4), a confirmatory scan for soft-tissue disease progression (SA5), and all deaths regardless of time after study drug discontinuation (SA6). Correlations between investigator-assessed rPFS (SA2) and OS were calculated using Spearman ? and Kendall ? via Clayton copula. Results:In the 1717 men (mean age, 72.0 [range, 43.0-93.0] years in enzalutamide arm and 71.0 [range, 42.0-93.0] years in placebo arm), enzalutamide significantly reduced risk of radiographic progression or death in all SAs, with hazard ratios of 0.22 (SA1; 95% CI, 0.18-0.27), 0.31 (SA2; 95% CI, 0.27-0.35), 0.21 (SA3; 95% CI, 0.18-0.26), 0.21 (SA4; 95% CI, 0.17-0.26), 0.23 (SA5; 95% CI, 0.19-0.30), and 0.23 (SA6; 95% CI, 0.19-0.30) (P < .001 for all). Correlations of rPFS and OS in enzalutamide-treated patients were 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86-0.92) by Spearman ? and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.77) by Kendall ?. Conclusions and Relevance:Sensitivity analyses in PREVAIL demonstrated the robustness of the PCWG2 rPFS definition using additional measures of progression. There was concordance between central and investigator review and a positive correlation between rPFS and OS among enzalutamide-treated patients. Trial Registration:clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01212991.

Project description:Enzalutamide is an androgen receptor (AR) inhibitor that acts on different steps in the AR signaling pathway. In PREVAIL, an international, phase III, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, enzalutamide significantly reduced the risk of radiographic progression by 81% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.19; P?<?.0001) and reduced the risk of death by 29% (HR, 0.71; P?<?.0001) compared with placebo in chemotherapy-naïve men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.To evaluate treatment effects, safety, and pharmacokinetics of enzalutamide in East Asian patients from the PREVAIL trial, we performed a post hoc analysis of the Japanese, Korean, and Singaporean patients. PREVAIL enrolled patients with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic chemotherapy-naïve metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer who had progressed on androgen deprivation therapy. During the study, patients received enzalutamide (160?mg/d) or placebo (1:1) until death or discontinuation because of radiographic progression or skeletal-related event and initiation of subsequent therapy. Centrally assessed radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) and overall survival (OS) were coprimary endpoints. The secondary endpoints of the PREVAIL trial were investigator-assessed rPFS, time to initiation of chemotherapy, time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression, and PSA response (?50% decline).Of 1717 patients, 148 patients were enrolled at sites in East Asia (enzalutamide 73, placebo 75). Treatment effect of enzalutamide versus placebo was consistent with that for the overall population as indicated by the HRs (95% confidence interval) of 0.38 (0.10-1.44) for centrally assessed rPFS, 0.59 (0.29-1.23) for OS, 0.33 (0.19-0.60) for time to chemotherapy, and 0.32 (0.20-0.50) for time to PSA progression. In East Asian patients, PSA responses were observed in 68.5% and 14.7% of enzalutamide- and placebo-treated patients, respectively. The enzalutamide plasma concentration ratio (East Asian:non-Asian patients) was 1.12 (90% confidence interval, 1.05-1.20) at 13 weeks. Treatment-related adverse events grade ??3 occurred in 1.4% and 2.7% of enzalutamide- and placebo-treated East Asian patients, respectively.Treatment effects and safety of enzalutamide in East Asian patients were generally consistent with those observed in the overall study population from PREVAIL. CLINICALTRIALS.NCT01212991.

Project description:ImportanceDynamic prediction models may help predict radiographic disease progression in advanced prostate cancer.ObjectiveTo assess whether dynamic prediction models aid prognosis of radiographic progression risk, using ongoing longitudinal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) assessments.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study used data from the PREVAIL study to compare dynamic models for predicting disease progression. The PREVAIL study was a phase 3, multinational, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial of enzalutamide for prostate cancer conducted from September 2010 to September 2012. A total of 773 men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) who had never received chemotherapy and had no baseline visceral disease were treated with enzalutamide. For illustration, 4 patients were selected based on PSA kinetics or PSA response in case studies. Data were analyzed from July 2018 to September 2019.Main outcomes and measuresLandmark and joint models were applied to dynamically predict radiographic progression-free survival (PFS) using longitudinal PSA profile, baseline PSA, lactate dehydrogenase, and hemoglobin levels. The main outcome was radiographic PFS as predicted using landmark and joint models. Current PSA and PSA change were considered longitudinal biomarkers possibly associated with radiographic PFS. Predictive performance was evaluated using Brier score for overall prediction errors (PEs) and area under the curve (AUC) for model discriminative capability. Case studies were illustrated using dynamic prediction plots.ResultsA total of 763 men with metastatic CRPC treated with enzalutamide (mean [SD] age, 71.2 [8.5] years; mean [SD] body mass index [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], 28.4 [4.6]) were included in the analysis. Current PSA and PSA change were associated with radiographic PFS in all models. Adding the PSA slope, compared with the landmark models using current PSA alone, improved the prediction of 5-month prospect of radiographic progression, with relative gains of 5.7% in prediction (PE [SE], 0.132 [0.008] vs 0.140 [0.008]) and 7.7% in discrimination (AUC [SE], 0.800 [0.018] vs 0.743 [0.018]) at month 10. In joint models with linear vs nonlinear PSA, prediction of 5-month risk of radiographic progression was improved when PSA trajectories were not assumed to be linear, with 8.0% relative gain in prediction (PE [SE], 0.150 [0.006] vs 0.138 [0.005]) and 19.4% relative gain in discrimination (AUC [SE], 0.653 [0.022] vs 0.780 [0.016]) at month 10. Predictions were affected by amount of marker information accumulated and prespecified assumptions. PSA changes affected progression risk more strongly at later vs earlier follow-up.Conclusions and relevanceThis prognostic study found that prediction of radiographic PFS was improved when longitudinal PSA information was added to baseline variables. In a population of patients with metastatic CRPC, dynamic predictions using landmark or joint models may help identify patients at risk of progression.

Dataset Information

Radiographic progression with nonrising PSA in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: post hoc analysis of PREVAIL.

Publications

Radiographic progression with nonrising PSA in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: post hoc analysis of PREVAIL.

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