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An evolutionary model to predict the frequency of antibiotic resistance under seasonal antibiotic use, and an application to Streptococcus pneumoniae.

ABSTRACT: The frequency of resistance to antibiotics in Streptococcus pneumoniae has been stable over recent decades. For example, penicillin non-susceptibility in Europe has fluctuated between 12% and 16% without any major time trend. In spite of long-term stability, resistance fluctuates over short time scales, presumably in part due to seasonal fluctuations in antibiotic prescriptions. Here, we develop a model that describes the evolution of antibiotic resistance under selection by multiple antibiotics prescribed at seasonally changing rates. This model was inspired by, and fitted to, published data on monthly antibiotics prescriptions and frequency of resistance in two communities in Israel over 5 years. Seasonal fluctuations in antibiotic usage translate into small fluctuations of the frequency of resistance around the average value. We describe these dynamics using a perturbation approach that encapsulates all ecological and evolutionary forces into a generic model, whose parameters quantify a force stabilizing the frequency of resistance around the equilibrium and the sensitivity of the population to antibiotic selection. Fitting the model to the data revealed a strong stabilizing force, typically two to five times stronger than direct selection due to antibiotics. The strong stabilizing force explains that resistance fluctuates in phase with usage, as antibiotic selection alone would result in resistance fluctuating behind usage with a lag of three months when antibiotic use is seasonal. While most antibiotics selected for increased resistance, intriguingly, cephalosporins selected for decreased resistance to penicillins and macrolides, an effect consistent in the two communities. One extra monthly prescription of cephalosporins per 1000 children decreased the frequency of penicillin-resistant strains by 1.7%. This model emerges under minimal assumptions, quantifies the forces acting on resistance and explains up to 43% of the temporal variation in resistance.

SUBMITTER: Blanquart F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5454275 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An evolutionary model to predict the frequency of antibiotic resistance under seasonal antibiotic use, and an application to <i>Streptococcus pneumoniae</i>.

Blanquart François F Lehtinen Sonja S Fraser Christophe C

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20170501 1855

The frequency of resistance to antibiotics in <i>Streptococcus pneumoniae</i> has been stable over recent decades. For example, penicillin non-susceptibility in Europe has fluctuated between 12% and 16% without any major time trend. In spite of long-term stability, resistance fluctuates over short time scales, presumably in part due to seasonal fluctuations in antibiotic prescriptions. Here, we develop a model that describes the evolution of antibiotic resistance under selection by multiple anti ...[more]

PMID: 28566489

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Project description:BackgroundWe describe the relative impact of the heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7, introduced 2001) and antibiotic use on colonization by antibiotic-resistant pneumococci in urban Alaskan children during 2000-2010.MethodsWe obtained nasopharyngeal swab specimens from a convenience sample of children aged <5 years at clinics annually during 2000-2004 and 2008-2010. PCV7 status and antibiotic use <90 days before enrollment were determined by interview/medical records review. Pneumococci were characterized by serotype and susceptibility to penicillin (PCN). Isolates with full PCN resistance (PCN-R) or intermediate PCN resistance (PCN-I) were classified as PCN-NS.ResultsWe recruited 3496 children (median, 452 per year). During 2000-2010, a range of 18-29% per year of children used PCN/amoxicillin (P value for trend = 0.09); the proportion age-appropriately vaccinated with PCV7 increased (0[FIGURE DASH]90%; P < 0.01). Among pneumococcal isolates, the PCV7-serotype proportion decreased (53-<1%; P < 0.01) and non[FIGURE DASH]PCV7-serotype proportion increased (43-95%; P < 0.01). PCN-R pneumococcal colonization prevalence decreased (23-9%; P < 0.01) and PCN-I pneumococcal colonization prevalence increased (13-24%; P < 0.01); overall PCN-NS pneumococcal colonization prevalence was unchanged. PCN-NS among colonizing PCV7-type and non[FIGURE DASH]PCV7-type pneumococci remained unchanged; a mean of 31% per year of PCV7-type and 10% per year of non[FIGURE DASH]PCV7-type isolates were PCN-R, and 10% per year of PCV7 and 20% per year of non[FIGURE DASH]PCV7-type isolates were PCN-I.ConclusionsOverall, PCN-NS pneumococcal colonization remained unchanged during 2000-2010 because increased colonization by predominantly PCN-I non-PCV7 serotypes offset decreased colonization by predominantly PCN-R PCV7 serotypes. Proportion PCN-NS did not increase within colonizing pneumococcal serotype groups (PCV7 vs. non-PCV7) despite stable PCN use in our population.

Dataset Information

An evolutionary model to predict the frequency of antibiotic resistance under seasonal antibiotic use, and an application to Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Publications

An evolutionary model to predict the frequency of antibiotic resistance under seasonal antibiotic use, and an application to <i>Streptococcus pneumoniae</i>.

Similar Datasets

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