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Mortality, Hospitalizations, and Expenditures for the Medicare Population Aged 65 Years or Older, 1999-2013.

ABSTRACT: In a period of dynamic change in health care technology, delivery, and behaviors, tracking trends in health and health care can provide a perspective on what is being achieved.To comprehensively describe national trends in mortality, hospitalizations, and expenditures in the Medicare fee-for-service population between 1999 and 2013.Serial cross-sectional analysis of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older between 1999 and 2013 using Medicare denominator and inpatient files.For all Medicare beneficiaries, trends in all-cause mortality; for fee-for-service beneficiaries, trends in all-cause hospitalization and hospitalization-associated outcomes and expenditures. Geographic variation, stratified by key demographic groups, and changes in the intensity of care for fee-for-service beneficiaries in the last 1, 3, and 6 months of life were also assessed.The sample consisted of 68,374,904 unique Medicare beneficiaries (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage). All-cause mortality for all Medicare beneficiaries declined from 5.30% in 1999 to 4.45% in 2013 (difference, 0.85 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.83-0.87). Among fee-for-service beneficiaries (n?=?60,056,069), the total number of hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years decreased from 35,274 to 26,930 (difference, 8344; 95% CI, 8315-8374). Mean inflation-adjusted inpatient expenditures per Medicare fee-for-service beneficiary declined from $3290 to $2801 (difference, $489; 95% CI, $487-$490). Among fee-for-service beneficiaries in the last 6 months of life, the number of hospitalizations decreased from 131.1 to 102.9 per 100 deaths (difference, 28.2; 95% CI, 27.9-28.4). The percentage of beneficiaries with 1 or more hospitalizations decreased from 70.5 to 56.8 per 100 deaths (difference, 13.7; 95% CI, 13.5-13.8), while the inflation-adjusted inpatient expenditure per death increased from $15,312 in 1999 to $17,423 in 2009 and then decreased to $13,388 in 2013. Findings were consistent across geographic and demographic groups.Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older, all-cause mortality rates, hospitalization rates, and expenditures per beneficiary decreased from 1999 to 2013. In the last 6 months of life, total hospitalizations and inpatient expenditures decreased in recent years.

SUBMITTER: Krumholz HM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5459402 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mortality, Hospitalizations, and Expenditures for the Medicare Population Aged 65 Years or Older, 1999-2013.

Krumholz Harlan M HM Nuti Sudhakar V SV Downing Nicholas S NS Normand Sharon-Lise T SL Wang Yun Y

JAMA 20150701 4

<h4>Importance</h4>In a period of dynamic change in health care technology, delivery, and behaviors, tracking trends in health and health care can provide a perspective on what is being achieved.<h4>Objective</h4>To comprehensively describe national trends in mortality, hospitalizations, and expenditures in the Medicare fee-for-service population between 1999 and 2013.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>Serial cross-sectional analysis of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older betwee ...[more]

PMID: 26219053

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Project description:Importance:Medicare beneficiaries who are also enrolled in Medicaid (dually enrolled beneficiaries) have drawn the attention of policy makers because they comprise the poorest subset of the Medicare population; however, it is unclear how their outcomes have changed over time compared with those only enrolled in Medicare (nondually enrolled beneficiaries). Objective:To evaluate annual changes in all-cause mortality, hospitalization rates, and hospitalization-related mortality among dually enrolled beneficiaries and nondually enrolled beneficiaries. Design, Setting, and Participants:Serial cross-sectional study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older between January 2004 and December 2017. The final date of follow-up was September 30, 2018. Exposures:Dual vs nondual enrollment status. Main Outcomes and Measures:Annual all-cause mortality rates; all-cause hospitalization rates; and in-hospital, 30-day, 1-year hospitalization-related mortality rates. Results:There were 71?017?608 unique Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older (mean age, 75.6 [SD, 9.2] years; 54.9% female) enrolled in Medicare for at least 1 month from 2004 through 2017. Of these beneficiaries, 11?697?900 (16.5%) were dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid for at least 1 month. After adjusting for age, sex, and race, annual all-cause mortality rates declined from 8.5% (95% CI, 8.45%-8.56%) in 2004 to 8.1% (95% CI, 8.05%-8.13%) in 2017 among dually enrolled beneficiaries and from 4.1% (95% CI, 4.08%-4.13%) in 2004 to 3.8% (95% CI, 3.76%-3.79%) in 2017 among nondually enrolled beneficiaries. The difference in annual all-cause mortality between dually and nondually enrolled beneficiaries increased between 2004 (adjusted odds ratio, 2.09 [95% CI, 2.08-2.10]) and 2017 (adjusted odds ratio, 2.22 [95% CI, 2.21-2.23]) (P?<?.001 for interaction between dual enrollment status and time). All-cause hospitalizations per 100?000 beneficiary-years declined from 49?888 in 2004 to 41?121 in 2017 among dually enrolled beneficiaries (P?<?.001) and from 29?000 in 2004 to 22?601 in 2017 among nondually enrolled beneficiaries (P?<?.001); however, the difference between these groups widened between 2004 (adjusted risk ratio, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.71-1.73]) and 2017 (adjusted risk ratio, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.82-1.83]) (P?<?.001 for interaction). Among hospitalized beneficiaries, the risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rates declined from 10.3% (95% CI, 10.22%-10.33%) in 2004 to 10.1% (95% CI, 10.02%-10.20%) in 2017 among dually enrolled beneficiaries and from 8.5% (95% CI, 8.50%-8.56%) in 2004 to 8.1% (95% CI, 8.06%-8.13%) in 2017 among nondually enrolled beneficiaries. In contrast, 1-year mortality increased among hospitalized beneficiaries from 23.1% (95% CI, 23.05%-23.20%) in 2004 to 26.7% (95% CI, 26.58%-26.84%) in 2017 among dually enrolled beneficiaries and from 18.1% (95% CI, 18.11%-18.17%) in 2004 to 20.3% (95% CI, 20.21%-20.31%) in 2017 among nondually enrolled beneficiaries. The difference in hospitalization-related outcomes between dually and nondually enrolled beneficiaries persisted during the study period. Conclusions and Relevance:Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older, dually enrolled beneficiaries had higher annual all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalizations, and hospitalization-related mortality compared with nondually enrolled beneficiaries. Between 2004 and 2017, these differences did not decrease.

Project description:ImportanceThe Medicare Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) has disproportionately penalized hospitals that treat many black patients, which could worsen health outcomes in this population.ObjectiveTo determine whether short-term mortality rates increased among black and white adults 65 years and older after initiation of the HRRP and whether trends differed by race.Design, setting, and participantsIn a cohort study using an interrupted time-series analysis conducted from March 15, 2018, to January 23, 2019, in 3263 eligible acute care hospitals nationally, risk-adjusted mortality rates observed after Medicare started to impose penalties (October 1, 2012, to November 30, 2014) were compared with projections based on pre-HRRP trends (January 1, 2007, to March 31, 2010) among adults 65 years and older with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), or pneumonia. Observed-to-projected differences were then compared between racial groups.ExposuresHospital discharge during pre-HRRP and HRRP penalty periods.Main outcomes and measuresThirty-day postdischarge all-cause mortality.ResultsIn the 3263 acute care hospitals included in the analysis, black patients (627?373 index discharges) were more likely than white patients (5?845?130 index discharges) to be younger (mean [SD] age, 77.8 [8.3] vs 80.5 [8.2] years; P?<?.001), women (60.5% vs 53.7%; P?<?.001), dually covered by Medicare and Medicaid (45.7% vs 17.2%; P?<?.001), and treated at a penalized hospital (AMI, 82.8%; HF, 83.8%; and pneumonia, 82.6% vs 69.6%; 73.3%; and 71.7%; all P?<?.001). Pre-HRRP mortality rates for black vs white patients were 7.04% (95% CI, 6.75% to 7.33%) vs 7.47% (95% CI, 7.37% to 7.57%) for AMI, 6.69% (95% CI, 6.56% to 6.82%) vs 8.56% (95% CI, 8.48% to 8.64%) for HF, and 8.08% (95% CI, 7.88% to 8.27%) vs 8.27% (95% CI, 8.19% to 8.35%) for pneumonia. By the HRRP penalty period, observed mortality for AMI decreased more, relative to projections, among black than white patients (difference-in-differences, -1.65 percentage points; 95% CI, -3.19 to -0.10; P?=?.04). For HF, mortality increased relative to projections among white patients but not among black patients; however; mortality trends did not differ by race (difference-in-differences, -0.37 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.08 to 0.34; P?=?.31). For pneumonia, observed mortality was similar to projections in both racial groups, and trends did not differ by race (difference-in-differences, -0.54 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.66 to 0.59; P?=?.35). At both penalized and nonpenalized hospitals, mortality trends were similar or decreased more among black patients than white patients.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study of patients 65 years and older, short-term postdischarge mortality did not appear to increase for black patients under the HRRP, suggesting that certain value-based payment policies can be implemented without harming black populations. However, mortality seemed to increase for white patients with HF and this situation warrants investigation.

Project description:ImportanceFood insecurity has a known association with prevalent impaired cognition. However, it is unknown whether food insecurity has a longitudinal association with cognitive decline among older adults.ObjectiveTo determine whether food insecurity is associated with a faster decline in cognitive function among community-dwelling older adults.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used data from a nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older recruited for the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS). Community-dwelling NHATS participants were followed up for a maximum of 7 years (mean [SD] follow-up duration, 5.4 [1.1] years). Data were collected from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2020, and analyzed from December 23, 2021, to December 6, 2022.ExposuresSelf-reported food insecurity assessed from 2012 to 2019.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes were immediate memory, delayed memory, and executive function collected from 2013 to 2020. Immediate and delayed recall were assessed by a 10-item word-list memory task (range, 0-10, with higher scores indicating more words recalled). Executive function was measured by the clock drawing test (range, 0-5, with higher scores indicating more accurate depiction of a clock). Each year's cognitive functions were linked to the prior year's food insecurity data. Linear mixed-effects models with random slopes and intercepts were used to examine the association between food insecurity and cognitive decline. Analytic weights in each year were applied to represent community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older in 2011.ResultsOf 3037 participants, a weighted 57.8% (raw count, 1345) were younger than 75 years, 56.2% (raw count, 1777) were women, and most (84.9% [raw count, 2268]) were White. Over 7 years, 417 (weighted proportion, 12.1%) experienced food insecurity at least once. Food insecurity was associated with a faster decline in executive function in a fully adjusted model: the mean difference of annual change in executive function score between people exposed to and not exposed to food insecurity was -0.04 (95% CI, -0.09 to -0.003) points. However, food insecurity was not associated with changes in immediate and delayed memory (0.01 [95% CI, -0.05 to 0.08] and -0.01 [95% CI, -0.08 to 0.06], respectively).Conclusions and relevanceAmong community-dwelling older adults, food insecurity was prevalent and associated with a decline in executive function. Interventions and policies aiming to increase healthy food access or reduce food insecurity should be assessed for their impact on older adults' cognitive outcome.

Dataset Information

Mortality, Hospitalizations, and Expenditures for the Medicare Population Aged 65 Years or Older, 1999-2013.

Publications

Mortality, Hospitalizations, and Expenditures for the Medicare Population Aged 65 Years or Older, 1999-2013.

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