Dataset Information

Predicting Mortality up to 14 Years Among Community-Dwelling Adults Aged 65 and Older.

ABSTRACT: Extended validation of an index predicting mortality among community-dwelling US older adults.Examination of the performance of a previously developed index in predicting 10- and 14-year mortality among respondents to the 1997-2000 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) using the original development and validation cohorts. Follow-up mortality data are now available through 2011.16,063 respondents from the original development cohort and 8,027 respondents from the original validation cohort. All participants were community dwelling and ?65 years old.We calculated risk scores for each respondent based on the presence or absence of 11 factors (function, illnesses, behaviors, demographics) that make up the index. Using the Kaplan Meier method, we computed 10- and 14-year mortality estimates for the development and validation cohorts to examine model calibration. We examined model discrimination using the c-index.Participants in the development and validation cohorts were similar. Participants with risk scores 0-4 had 23% risk of 14-year mortality whereas respondents with risk scores (13+) had 89% risk of 14-year mortality. The c-index of the model in both cohorts was 0.73 for predicting 10-year mortality and 0.72 for predicting 14-year mortality. Overall, 18.4% of adults 65-74 years and 60.2% of adults ?75 years have >50% risk of mortality in 10 years.Our index demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination in predicting 10- and 14-year mortality among community-dwelling US adults ?65 years. Information on long-term prognosis is needed to help clinicians and older adults make more informed person-centered medical decisions and to help older adults plan for the future.

SUBMITTER: Schonberg MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5478427 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Mortality up to 14 Years Among Community-Dwelling Adults Aged 65 and Older.

Schonberg Mara A MA Li Vicky V Marcantonio Edward R ER Davis Roger B RB McCarthy Ellen P EP

Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 20170221 6

<h4>Objectives</h4>Extended validation of an index predicting mortality among community-dwelling US older adults.<h4>Design/setting</h4>Examination of the performance of a previously developed index in predicting 10- and 14-year mortality among respondents to the 1997-2000 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) using the original development and validation cohorts. Follow-up mortality data are now available through 2011.<h4>Participants</h4>16,063 respondents from the original development coho ...[more]

PMID: 28221669

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Project description:ImportanceFood insecurity has a known association with prevalent impaired cognition. However, it is unknown whether food insecurity has a longitudinal association with cognitive decline among older adults.ObjectiveTo determine whether food insecurity is associated with a faster decline in cognitive function among community-dwelling older adults.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used data from a nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older recruited for the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS). Community-dwelling NHATS participants were followed up for a maximum of 7 years (mean [SD] follow-up duration, 5.4 [1.1] years). Data were collected from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2020, and analyzed from December 23, 2021, to December 6, 2022.ExposuresSelf-reported food insecurity assessed from 2012 to 2019.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes were immediate memory, delayed memory, and executive function collected from 2013 to 2020. Immediate and delayed recall were assessed by a 10-item word-list memory task (range, 0-10, with higher scores indicating more words recalled). Executive function was measured by the clock drawing test (range, 0-5, with higher scores indicating more accurate depiction of a clock). Each year's cognitive functions were linked to the prior year's food insecurity data. Linear mixed-effects models with random slopes and intercepts were used to examine the association between food insecurity and cognitive decline. Analytic weights in each year were applied to represent community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older in 2011.ResultsOf 3037 participants, a weighted 57.8% (raw count, 1345) were younger than 75 years, 56.2% (raw count, 1777) were women, and most (84.9% [raw count, 2268]) were White. Over 7 years, 417 (weighted proportion, 12.1%) experienced food insecurity at least once. Food insecurity was associated with a faster decline in executive function in a fully adjusted model: the mean difference of annual change in executive function score between people exposed to and not exposed to food insecurity was -0.04 (95% CI, -0.09 to -0.003) points. However, food insecurity was not associated with changes in immediate and delayed memory (0.01 [95% CI, -0.05 to 0.08] and -0.01 [95% CI, -0.08 to 0.06], respectively).Conclusions and relevanceAmong community-dwelling older adults, food insecurity was prevalent and associated with a decline in executive function. Interventions and policies aiming to increase healthy food access or reduce food insecurity should be assessed for their impact on older adults' cognitive outcome.

Project description:ImportanceIn a period of dynamic change in health care technology, delivery, and behaviors, tracking trends in health and health care can provide a perspective on what is being achieved.ObjectiveTo comprehensively describe national trends in mortality, hospitalizations, and expenditures in the Medicare fee-for-service population between 1999 and 2013.Design, setting, and participantsSerial cross-sectional analysis of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older between 1999 and 2013 using Medicare denominator and inpatient files.Main outcomes and measuresFor all Medicare beneficiaries, trends in all-cause mortality; for fee-for-service beneficiaries, trends in all-cause hospitalization and hospitalization-associated outcomes and expenditures. Geographic variation, stratified by key demographic groups, and changes in the intensity of care for fee-for-service beneficiaries in the last 1, 3, and 6 months of life were also assessed.ResultsThe sample consisted of 68,374,904 unique Medicare beneficiaries (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage). All-cause mortality for all Medicare beneficiaries declined from 5.30% in 1999 to 4.45% in 2013 (difference, 0.85 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.83-0.87). Among fee-for-service beneficiaries (n = 60,056,069), the total number of hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years decreased from 35,274 to 26,930 (difference, 8344; 95% CI, 8315-8374). Mean inflation-adjusted inpatient expenditures per Medicare fee-for-service beneficiary declined from $3290 to $2801 (difference, $489; 95% CI, $487-$490). Among fee-for-service beneficiaries in the last 6 months of life, the number of hospitalizations decreased from 131.1 to 102.9 per 100 deaths (difference, 28.2; 95% CI, 27.9-28.4). The percentage of beneficiaries with 1 or more hospitalizations decreased from 70.5 to 56.8 per 100 deaths (difference, 13.7; 95% CI, 13.5-13.8), while the inflation-adjusted inpatient expenditure per death increased from $15,312 in 1999 to $17,423 in 2009 and then decreased to $13,388 in 2013. Findings were consistent across geographic and demographic groups.Conclusions and relevanceAmong Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older, all-cause mortality rates, hospitalization rates, and expenditures per beneficiary decreased from 1999 to 2013. In the last 6 months of life, total hospitalizations and inpatient expenditures decreased in recent years.

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Project description:BackgroundObjective health measures, such as registered illnesses or frailty, predict mortality and institutionalization in older adults. Also, self-reported assessment of health by simple self-rated health (SRH) has been shown to predict mortality and institutionalization. The aim of this study was to assess the association of objective and subjective health with mortality and institutionalization in Finnish community-dwelling older adults.MethodsIn this prospective study with 10- and 18-year follow-ups, objective health was measured by registered illnesses and subjective health was evaluated by simple SRH, self-reported walking ability (400 m) and self-reported satisfaction in life. The participants were categorized into four groups according to their objective and subjective health: 1. subjectively and objectively healthy, 2. subjectively healthy and objectively unhealthy, 3. subjectively unhealthy and objectively healthy and 4. subjectively and objectively unhealthy. Cox regression model was used in the analyses. Death was used as a competing factor in the institutionalization analyses.ResultsThe mean age of the participants (n = 1259) was 73.5 years (range 64.0-100.0). During the 10- and 18-year follow-ups, 466 (37%) and 877 (70%) died, respectively. In the institutionalization analyses (n = 1106), 162 (15%) and 328 (30%) participants were institutionalized during the 10- and 18-year follow-ups, respectively. In both follow-ups, being subjectively and objectively unhealthy, compared to being subjectively and objectively healthy, was significantly associated with a higher risk of institutionalization in unadjusted models and with death both in unadjusted and adjusted models.ConclusionsThe categorization of objective and subjective health into four health groups was good at predicting the risk of death during 10- and 18-year follow-ups, and seemed to also predict the risk of institutionalization in the unadjusted models during both follow-ups. Poor subjective health had an additive effect on poor objective health in predicting mortality and could therefore be used as part of an older individual's health evaluation when screening for future adverse outcomes.

Project description:Importance:There is little understanding of the outcomes associated with active lifestyle interventions for sarcopenia among older persons. Objective:To determine the association of 6-month multidomain lifestyle interventions (physical exercise, nutritional enhancement, cognitive training, combined treatment, and standard care) with change in sarcopenia status and physical function among adults 65 years and older. Design, Setting, and Participants:Post hoc secondary analysis of a parallel-group randomized clinical trial conducted from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2014, at community centers providing services to elderly individuals in Singapore. Participants included a subsample of 92 community-dwelling prefrail or frail older persons with sarcopenia aged 65 years and older. Data were analyzed from June 1, 2017, to January 1, 2018. Interventions:The 5 intervention groups were a 6-month duration of physical exercise that included resistance and balance training, nutritional enhancement with a commercial oral nutrition supplement formula, cognitive training, a combination of the preceding 3 interventions, and standard care (control). Main Outcomes and Measures:Primary outcomes were changes in sarcopenia status and its components, appendicular skeletal muscle index (ASMI), knee extension strength (KES), and gait speed (GS) at 3 months and 6 months following the intervention. Sarcopenia was defined as the presence of both low ASMI and low KES and/or GS. Results:In 92 participants with sarcopenia, the mean (SD) age was 70.0 (4.7) years and 59 (64.1%) were female. Seventy-eight participants received active interventions and 14 received standard care. Of 92 total participants, the number who remained sarcopenic was reduced to 48 (of 73) after 3 months and 51 (of 75) after 6 months of intervention, indicating that 25 of 92 participants (27.2%) experienced sarcopenia reduction at 3 months and 24 of 92 (26.1%) had sarcopenia reduction at 6 months. Low KES was present in 88 of 92 patients (95.6%), and low GS in 30 of 92 patients (32.6%) at baseline. Among the components of sarcopenia, GS had the greatest change associated with active interventions, with 22 of 30 participants (73.3%) free of low GS at 6 months; in comparison, 17 of 88 participants (19.3%) were free of low KES at 6 months and 7 of 92 participants (7.6%) were free of low ASMI at 6 months. Men experienced greater reduction in sarcopenia than women (?2?=?5.925; P?=?.02), as did those with younger age (t?=?-2.078; P?=?.04) or higher ASMI (mean [SD] ASMI, 5.74 [0.77] vs 5.14 [0.77] kg/m2; P?=?.002). Participants in the active intervention group experienced statistically significant decreases in sarcopenia score and its components at 3 months and 6 months from baseline (F?=?14.138; P?<?.001), but the intervention was not associated with significant differences in ASMI, KES, and GS vs standard care. Conclusions and Relevance:This study suggests that older persons with sarcopenia are responsive to the effects of multidomain lifestyle interventions. Sarcopenia reduction was most pronounced through improved gait speed, and occurred more among those who were male, were younger, or had greater muscle mass.

Dataset Information

Predicting Mortality up to 14 Years Among Community-Dwelling Adults Aged 65 and Older.

Publications

Predicting Mortality up to 14 Years Among Community-Dwelling Adults Aged 65 and Older.

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