Dataset Information

Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20^th and 21^st century.

ABSTRACT: Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055?K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20^th century and projections during the 21^st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20^th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5?K by the end of the 21^st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21^st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080-2099 relative to a base period of 1986-2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.

SUBMITTER: Basha G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5462738 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century.

Basha Ghouse G Kishore P P Ratnam M Venkat MV Jayaraman A A Agha Kouchak Amir A Ouarda Taha B M J TBMJ Velicogna Isabella I

Scientific reports 20170607 1

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20th century and projections during the 21st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to ...[more]

PMID: 28592810

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Project description:Although most point sources of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), are at lower latitudes, the Arctic region is contaminated. In particular, PAHs now dominate the POP body burden of the region's marine biota at the lower trophic levels. Greenlandic Inuits have the most elevated levels of POPs in their blood compared to any other population, due to their consumption of seal meat and other marine mammals. PAHs, the by-products of the incomplete combustion of petroleum products, are known carcinogens and have been shown to affect the immune system, reproduction, endocrine functions, and the nervous system. With industrial activities and climate change set to increase local PAH emissions, it is paramount to document changes in atmospheric PAH deposition to further investigate PAH exposure in the region and attribute contaminations to their sources. As a measure of atmospheric pollution, we sampled bryophyte herbarium specimens of three common and widespread species collected in Greenland between the 1920s and 1970s after which time new collections were not available. They were analyzed for 19 PAHs using GC-MS (gas chromatography mass spectrometry). The presence of more low-molecular-weight PAHs than high-molecular-weight PAHs is evidence that the PAH contamination in Greenland is due to long-range transport rather than originating from local sources. The results show peaks in PAH atmospheric deposition in the first part of the 19th century followed by a trend of decrease, which mirror global trends in atmospheric pollution known from those periods. PAHs associated with wood and fossil-fuel combustion decrease in the 1970s coinciding with the disappearance of charcoal pits and foundries in Europe and North America, and a shift away from domestic heating with wood during the 19th century. The results highlight the value of bryophytes as bioindicators to measure PAH atmospheric pollution as well as the unrealized potential of herbaria as historical records of environmental change.

Dataset Information

Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20^th and 21^st century.

Publications

Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20<sup>th</sup> and 21<sup>st</sup> century.

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