Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

28 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

SUBMITTER: Ceglar A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5465944 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Similar Datasets

Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe.

Project description:Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44% of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience.

| S-EPMC6361969 | biostudies-literature

Atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Younger Dryas.

Project description:The Younger Dryas (YD) was a period of rapid climate cooling that occurred at the end of the last glaciation. Here, we present the first palaeoglacier-derived reconstruction of YD precipitation across Europe, determined from 122 reconstructed glaciers and proxy atmospheric temperatures. Positive precipitation anomalies (YD versus modern) are found along much of the western seaboard of Europe and across the Mediterranean. Negative precipitation anomalies occur over the Fennoscandian ice sheet, the North European Plain, and as far south as the Alps. This is consistent with a more southerly and zonal storm track, which is linked to a concomitant southern location of the Polar Frontal Jet Stream, generating cold air outbreaks and enhanced cyclogenesis, especially over the eastern Mediterranean. This atmospheric configuration resembles the modern Scandinavian (SCAND) circulation over Europe (a blocking high pressure over Scandinavia pushing storm tracks south and east), and by analogy, a seasonally varying palaeoprecipitation pattern is interpreted.

| S-EPMC7732201 | biostudies-literature

Observed interannual changes beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Project description:Floating ice shelves are the Achilles' heel of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They limit Antarctica's contribution to global sea level rise, yet they can be rapidly melted from beneath by a warming ocean. At Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, a decline in sea ice formation may increase basal melt rates and accelerate marine ice sheet mass loss within this century. However, the understanding of this tipping-point behavior largely relies on numerical models. Our new multi-annual observations from five hot-water drilled boreholes through Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show that since 2015 there has been an intensification of the density-driven ice shelf cavity-wide circulation in response to reinforced wind-driven sea ice formation in the Ronne polynya. Enhanced southerly winds over Ronne Ice Shelf coincide with westward displacements of the Amundsen Sea Low position, connecting the cavity circulation with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as a new aspect of the atmosphere-ocean-ice shelf system.

| S-EPMC8138005 | biostudies-literature

Large-scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types.

Project description:Precipitation patterns over Europe are largely controlled by atmospheric cyclones embedded in the general circulation of the mid-latitudes. This study evaluates the climatologic features of precipitation for selected regions in central Europe with respect to cyclone track types for 1959-2015, focusing on large-scale heavy precipitation. The analysis suggests that each of the cyclone track types is connected to a specific pattern of the upper level atmospheric flow, usually characterized by a major trough located over Europe. A dominant upper level cut-off low (COL) is found over Europe for strong continental (CON) and van Bebber's type (Vb) cyclones which move from the east and southeast into central Europe. Strong Vb cyclones revealed the longest residence times, mainly due to circular propagation paths. The central European cyclone precipitation climate can largely be explained by seasonal track-type frequency and cyclone intensity; however, additional factors are needed to explain a secondary precipitation maximum in early autumn. The occurrence of large precipitation totals for track events is strongly related to the track type and the region, with the highest value of 45% of all Vb cyclones connected to heavy precipitation in summer over the Czech Republic and eastern Austria. In western Germany, Atlantic winter cyclones are most relevant for heavy precipitation. The analysis of the top 50 precipitation events revealed an outstanding heavy precipitation period from 2006 to 2011 in the Czech Republic, but no gradual long-term change. The findings help better understand spatio-temporal variability of heavy precipitation in the context of floods and may be used for evaluating climate models.

| S-EPMC5993218 | biostudies-literature

Did anomalous atmospheric circulation favor the spread of COVID-19 in Europe?

Project description:The current pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is having negative health, social and economic consequences worldwide. In Europe, the pandemic started to develop strongly at the end of February and beginning of March 2020. Subsequently, it spread over the continent, with special virulence in northern Italy and inland Spain. In this study we show that an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing in southwestern Europe during February 2020 (i.e. anomalously strong positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations) could have resulted in favorable conditions, e.g., in terms of air temperature and humidity among other factors, in Italy and Spain for a quicker spread of the virus compared with the rest of the European countries. It seems plausible that the strong atmospheric stability and associated dry conditions that dominated in these regions may have favored the virus propagation, both outdoors and especially indoors, by short-range droplet and aerosol (airborne) transmission, or/and by changing social contact patterns. Later recent atmospheric circulation conditions in Europe (July 2020) and the U.S. (October 2020) seem to support our hypothesis, although further research is needed in order to evaluate other confounding variables. Interestingly, the atmospheric conditions during the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 seem to have resembled at some stage with the current COVID-19 pandemic.

| S-EPMC7746124 | biostudies-literature

Shift of large-scale atmospheric systems over Europe during late MIS 3 and implications for Modern Human dispersal.

Project description:Understanding the past dynamics of large-scale atmospheric systems is crucial for our knowledge of the palaeoclimate conditions in Europe. Southeastern Europe currently lies at the border between Atlantic, Mediterranean, and continental climate zones. Past changes in the relative influence of associated atmospheric systems must have been recorded in the region's palaeoarchives. By comparing high-resolution grain-size, environmental magnetic and geochemical data from two loess-palaeosol sequences in the Lower Danube Basin with other Eurasian palaeorecords, we reconstructed past climatic patterns over Southeastern Europe and the related interaction of the prevailing large-scale circulation modes over Europe, especially during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (40,000-27,000 years ago). We demonstrate that during this time interval, the intensification of the Siberian High had a crucial influence on European climate causing the more continental conditions over major parts of Europe, and a southwards shift of the Westerlies. Such a climatic and environmental change, combined with the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y-5 volcanic eruption, may have driven the Anatomically Modern Human dispersal towards Central and Western Europe, pointing to a corridor over the Eastern European Plain as an important pathway in their dispersal.

| S-EPMC5517514 | biostudies-literature

Large genetic yield potential and genetic yield gap estimated for wheat in Europe.

Project description:Improving yield potential and closing the yield gap are important to achieve global food security. Europe is the largest wheat producer, delivering about 35% of wheat globally, but European wheat's yield potential from genetic improvements is as yet unknown. We estimated wheat 'genetic yield potential', i.e. the yield of optimal or ideal genotypes in a target environment, across major wheat growing regions in Europe by designing in silico ideotypes. These ideotypes were optimised for current climatic conditions and based on optimal physiology, constrained by available genetic variation in target traits. A 'genetic yield gap' in a location was estimated as the difference between the yield potential of the optimal ideotype compared with a current, well-adapted cultivar. A large mean genetic yield potential (11-13 t ha-1) and genetic yield gap (3.5-5.2 t ha-1) were estimated under rainfed conditions in Europe. In other words, despite intensive wheat breeding efforts, current local cultivars were found to be far from their optimum, meaning that a large genetic yield gap still exists in European wheat. Heat and drought tolerance around flowering, optimal canopy structure and phenology, improved root water uptake and reduced leaf senescence under drought were identified as key traits for improvement. Closing this unexploited genetic yield gap in Europe through crop improvements and genetic adaptations could contribute towards global food security.

| S-EPMC7063691 | biostudies-literature

A large-scale crop protection bioassay data set.

Project description:ChEMBL is a large-scale drug discovery database containing bioactivity information primarily extracted from scientific literature. Due to the medicinal chemistry focus of the journals from which data are extracted, the data are currently of most direct value in the field of human health research. However, many of the scientific use-cases for the current data set are equally applicable in other fields, such as crop protection research: for example, identification of chemical scaffolds active against a particular target or endpoint, the de-convolution of the potential targets of a phenotypic assay, or the potential targets/pathways for safety liabilities. In order to broaden the applicability of the ChEMBL database and allow more widespread use in crop protection research, an extensive data set of bioactivity data of insecticidal, fungicidal and herbicidal compounds and assays was collated and added to the database.

| S-EPMC4493826 | biostudies-literature

Possible factors determining global-scale patterns of crop yield sensitivity to drought.

Project description:In recent decades, droughts have critically limited crop production, inducing food system shocks regionally and globally. It was estimated that crop yield variability in around one-third to three-fourths of global harvested areas is explained significantly by drought, revealing the notable vulnerability of crop systems to such climate-related stressors. However, understanding the key factors determining the global pattern of crop yield sensitivity to drought is limited. Here, we investigate a wide range of physical and socioeconomic factors that may determine crop-drought vulnerability in terms of yield sensitivity to drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index at 0.5° resolution from 1981 to 2016 using machine learning approaches. The results indicate that the spatial variations of the crop-drought sensitivity were mainly explained by environmental factors (i.e., annual precipitation, soil water-holding capacity, soil acidity, annual potential evapotranspiration) and crop management factors (i.e., fertilizer rate, growing season). Several factors might have a positive effect in mitigating crop-drought vulnerability, such as annual precipitation, soil water holding capacity, and fertilizer rate. This study quantitatively assesses the possible effect of various determinants which might control crop vulnerability to drought. This understanding may provide insights for further studies addressing better crop vulnerability measures under future drought stress.

| S-EPMC9894396 | biostudies-literature

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

Project description:Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

| S-EPMC4639794 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data