Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe.

ABSTRACT: Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet produc

SUBMITTER: Guimaraes Nobre G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6361969 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature