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Interrelationship between Climatic, Ecologic, Social, and Cultural Determinants Affecting Dengue Emergence and Transmission in Puerto Rico and Their Implications for Zika Response.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:The global resurgence of dengue has been attributed to rapid population growth, urban expansion, increased air travel, globalization, and climate change. Dengue is now endemic in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is at risk for Zika, another emerging arbovirus. The interrelationship between climatic, ecological, social, and cultural factors that affect dengue and other arboviruses' transmission is understudied. DESIGN:The objective of this systematic review is to examine the interrelationship between climatic, ecological, social, and cultural factors on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico and to draw lessons for Zika response. RESULTS:A comprehensive search of peer-reviewed journal articles was performed, producing 562 articles; 26 were selected for this review. Findings indicate that human activities and behaviors (urbanization, migration, and consumption) as well as climate have a significant impact on the abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti, the vector for dengue, Zika, and other viruses. CONCLUSION:Despite the public health burden of dengue limited investments have been made in research and surveillance. Future research is needed to develop models that integrate the multivariate effects of climatic, ecological, social, and cultural factors, which for Puerto Rico have mostly been examined independently. Such models have the potential to inform response to dengue, Zika, and other arboviruses.

SUBMITTER: Matysiak A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5498925 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Interrelationship between Climatic, Ecologic, Social, and Cultural Determinants Affecting Dengue Emergence and Transmission in Puerto Rico and Their Implications for Zika Response.

Matysiak Angela A Roess Amira A

Journal of tropical medicine 20170622

<h4>Objective</h4>The global resurgence of dengue has been attributed to rapid population growth, urban expansion, increased air travel, globalization, and climate change. Dengue is now endemic in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is at risk for Zika, another emerging arbovirus. The interrelationship between climatic, ecological, social, and cultural factors that affect dengue and other arboviruses' transmission is understudied.<h4>Design</h4>The objective of this systematic review is to examine the inte ...[more]

PMID: 28717366

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Project description:BackgroundThe incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care.MethodsFatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV) in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death.ResultsAmong 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years), including five children aged < 15 years; 7 sought medical care at least once prior to hospital admission, 9 were admitted to hospital and 2 died upon arrival. The nine hospitalized case-patients stayed a mean of 15 hours (range: 3-48 hours) in the emergency department (ED) before inpatient admission. Five of the nine case-patients received intravenous methylprednisolone and four received non-isotonic saline while in shock. Eight case-patients died in the hospital; five had their terminal event on the inpatient ward and six died during a weekend. Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances.ConclusionsDuring a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED stays, and infrequent patient monitoring.

Project description:Understanding the burden and risk factors of dengue virus (DENV) infection in Puerto Rico is important for the prevention of dengue in local, traveler and military populations. Using sera from the Department of Defense Serum Repository, we estimated the prevalence and predictors of DENV seropositivity in those who had served in Puerto Rico, stratified by birth or prior residence ("birth/residence") in dengue-endemic versus non-endemic regions. We selected sera collected in early 2015 from 500 U.S. military members, a time-point also permitting detection of early cryptic Zika virus (ZIKV) circulation. 87.2% were born or resided in a DENV-endemic area before their military service in Puerto Rico. A high-throughput, flow-cytometry-based neutralization assay was employed to screen sera for ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies, and confirmatory testing was done by plaque-reduction neutralization test (PRNT). We identified one Puerto Rico resident who seroconverted to ZIKV by June 2015, suggesting cryptic ZIKV circulation in Puerto Rico at least 4 months before the first reported cases. A further six PRNT-positive presumptive ZIKV infections which were resolved as DENV infections only by the use of paired sera. We noted 66.8% of the total study sample was DENV seropositive by early 2015. Logistic regression analysis indicated that birth/residence in a dengue non-endemic region (before military service in Puerto Rico) was associated with a lower odds of DENV exposure by January-June 2015 (aOR = 0.28, p = 0.001). Among those with birth/residence in a non-endemic country, we noted moderate evidence to support increase in odds of DENV exposure for each year of military service in Puerto Rico (aOR = 1.58, p = 0.06), but no association with age. In those with birth/residence in dengue-endemic regions (before military service in Puerto Rico), we noted that age (aOR = 1.04, p = 0.02), rather than duration of Puerto Rico service, was associated with dengue seropositivity, suggesting earlier lifetime DENV exposure. Our findings provide insights into the burden and predictors of DENV infection in local, traveler and military populations in Puerto Rico. Our study also highlights substantial PRNT ZIKV false-positivity when paired sera are not available, even during periods of very low ZIKV prevalence.

Project description:Importance:Existing research has established a causal link between Zika virus (ZIKV) infection and severe birth defects or consequent health impairments; however, more subtle cognitive impairments have not been explored. Objective:To determine whether infants of mothers with at least 1 positive ZIKV test show differences in cognitive scores at ages 3 to 6 months and ages 9 to 12 months. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cross-sectional study recruited infants enrolled in existing ZIKV study cohorts associated with the Maternal-Infant Studies Center and the Puerto Rico Clinical and Translational Research Consortium at the University of Puerto Rico and from the broader San Juan metropolitan area. The study took place at the Puerto Rico Clinical and Translational Research Consortium at the University of Puerto Rico. Participants were recruited through convenience sampling if their mothers underwent ZIKV testing prenatally and were at the target ages during the study period. Infants who were born preterm (<36 weeks' gestational age), with low birth weight (<2500 g), or with a known genetic disorder were excluded. Infants were tested from ages 3 to 6 months or ages 9 to 12 months from May 2018 to April 2019. Data analysis was performed from March to April 2019. Exposures:Zika virus status was measured prenatally and in the early postnatal period using real-time polymerase chain reaction or a ZIKV IgM antibody capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Main Outcomes and Measures:The infants' development was assessed using the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (translated to Spanish and adapted for Puerto Rico), and assessors were blinded to each infant's ZIKV status. Results:A total of 65 study participants were included. The mean (SD) age of the infants at the time of cognitive testing was 8.98 (3.19) months. Most of the infants were white (55 [84.6%]) and Puerto Rican (64 [98.5%]); 38 of the infants were male (58.5%). General cognitive and domain-specific scores did not differ significantly between prenatally ZIKV-positive and ZIKV-negative infants except for receptive language score (mean difference = 5.52; t = 2.10; P = .04). Exposure to ZIKV (B = -5.69; β = -0.26 [95% CI -11.01 to -0.36]; P = .04) and a measure of Hurricane Maria exposure (time without water, B = -0.05; β = -0.27 [95% CI, -0.10 to -0.01]; P = .03) were both independently and significantly associated with receptive language scores after adjusting for key confounders. Conclusions and Relevance:Although infants exposed to ZIKV prenatally showed unaffected motor and visually mediated cognitive development, they did show deficits in receptive language scores. Receptive language skills were also associated with the degree of exposure to Hurricane Maria, with those who spent more time without water after the hurricane having lower receptive language scores.

Project description:BackgroundPredictive models can serve as early warning systems and can be used to forecast future risk of various infectious diseases. Conventionally, regression and time series models are used to forecast dengue incidence, using dengue surveillance (e.g., case counts) and weather data. However, these models may be limited in terms of model assumptions and the number of predictors that can be included. Machine learning (ML) methods are designed to work with a large number of predictors and thus offer an appealing alternative. Here, we compared the performance of ML algorithms with that of regression models in predicting dengue cases and outbreaks from 4 to up to 12 weeks in advance. Many countries lack sufficient health surveillance infrastructure, as such we evaluated the contribution of dengue surveillance and weather data on the predictive power of these models.MethodsWe developed ML, regression, and time series models to forecast weekly dengue case counts and outbreaks in Iquitos, Peru; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and Singapore from 1990-2016. Forecasts were generated using available weekly dengue surveillance, and weather data. We evaluated the agreement between model forecasts and actual dengue observations using Mean Absolute Error and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC).ResultsFor near term predictions of weekly case counts and when using surveillance data, ML models had 21% and 33% less error than regression and time series models respectively. However, using weather data only, ML models did not demonstrate a practical advantage. When forecasting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks in advance, ML models achieved a maximum MCC of 0.61.ConclusionsOur results identified 2 scenarios when ML models are advantageous over regression model: 1) predicting dengue weekly case counts 4 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are available and 2) predicting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are unavailable. Given the advantages of ML models, dengue early warning systems may be improved by the inclusion of these models.

Dataset Information

Interrelationship between Climatic, Ecologic, Social, and Cultural Determinants Affecting Dengue Emergence and Transmission in Puerto Rico and Their Implications for Zika Response.

Publications

Interrelationship between Climatic, Ecologic, Social, and Cultural Determinants Affecting Dengue Emergence and Transmission in Puerto Rico and Their Implications for Zika Response.

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