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A Dynamic Transmission Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Infection Control Strategies.

ABSTRACT: The advancement of knowledge about control of antibiotic resistance depends on the rigorous evaluation of alternative intervention strategies. The STAR*ICU trial examined the effects of active surveillance and expanded barrier precautions on acquisition of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) in intensive care units. We report a reanalyses of the STAR*ICU trial using a Bayesian transmission modeling framework.The data included admission and discharge times and surveillance test times and results. Markov chain Monte Carlo stochastic integration was used to estimate the transmission rate, importation, false negativity, and clearance separately for MRSA and VRE. The primary outcome was the intervention effect, which when less than (or greater than) zero, indicated a decreased (or increased) transmission rate attributable to the intervention.The transmission rate increased in both arms from pre- to postintervention (by 20% and 26% for MRSA and VRE). The estimated intervention effect was 0.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.57 to 0.56) for MRSA and 0.05 (95% CI, -0.39 to 0.48) for VRE. Compared with MRSA, VRE had a higher transmission rate (preintervention, 0.0069 vs 0.0039; postintervention, 0.0087 vs 0.0046), higher importation probability (0.22 vs 0.17), and a lower clearance rate per colonized patient-day (0.016 vs 0.035).Transmission rates in the 2 treatment arms were statistically indistinguishable from the pre- to postintervention phase, consistent with the original analysis of the STAR*ICU trial. Our statistical framework was able to disentangle transmission from importation and account for imperfect testing. Epidemiological differences between VRE and MRSA were revealed.

SUBMITTER: Khader K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5499871 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Dynamic Transmission Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Infection Control Strategies.

Khader Karim K Thomas Alun A Huskins W Charles WC Leecaster Molly M Zhang Yue Y Greene Tom T Redd Andrew A Samore Matthew H MH

Open forum infectious diseases 20170210 1

<h4>Background</h4>The advancement of knowledge about control of antibiotic resistance depends on the rigorous evaluation of alternative intervention strategies. The STAR*ICU trial examined the effects of active surveillance and expanded barrier precautions on acquisition of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) in intensive care units. We report a reanalyses of the STAR*ICU trial using a Bayesian transmission modeling framework.<h4>Method ...[more]

PMID: 28702465

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Project description:Background and aimsDengue fever is a major public health problem in tropical/subtropical regions. Prior economic analyses have predominantly evaluated either vaccination or vector-control programmes in isolation and do not really consider the incremental benefits and cost-effectiveness of mixed strategies and combination control. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of single and combined approaches in Thailand.MethodsThe impacts of different control interventions were analysed using a previously published mathematical model of dengue epidemiology and control incorporating seasonality, age structure, consecutive infection, cross protection, immune enhancement and combined vector-host transmission. An economic model was applied to simulation results to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 4 interventions and their various combinations (6 strategies): i) routine vaccination of 1-year olds; ii) chemical vector control strategies targeting adult and larval stages separately; iii) environmental management/ public health education and awareness [EM/ PHEA]). Payer and societal perspectives were considered. The health burden of dengue fever was assessed using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost. Costs and effects were assessed for 10 years. Costs were discounted at 3% annually and updated to 2013 United States Dollars. Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out after strategies were rank-ordered by cost, with results presented in a table of incremental analysis. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken; and the impact and cost-effectiveness of Wolbachia was evaluated in exploratory scenario analyses.ResultsFrom the payer and societal perspectives, 2 combination strategies were considered optimal, as all other control strategies were dominated. Vaccination plus adulticide plus EM/ PHEA was deemed cost-effective according to multiple cost-effectiveness criteria. From the societal perspective, incremental differences vs. adulticide and EM/ PHEA resulted in costs of $157.6 million and DALYs lost of 12,599, giving an expected ICER of $12,508 per DALY averted. Exploratory scenario analyses showed Wolbachia to be highly cost-effective ($343 per DALY averted) vs. other single control measures.ConclusionsOur model shows that individual interventions can be cost-effective, but that important epidemiological reductions and economic impacts are demonstrated when interventions are combined as part of an integrated approach to combating dengue fever. Exploratory scenario analyses demonstrated the potential epidemiological and cost-effective impact of Wolbachia when deployed at scale on a nationwide basis. Our findings were robust in the face of sensitivity analyses.

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Project description:BackgroundA number of strategies exist to reduce Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) transmission. We conducted an economic evaluation of "bundling" these strategies together.MethodsWe constructed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection in a hospital setting. This model included the following components: interactions between patients and health care workers; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. Six interventions were introduced alone and "bundled" together: (a) aggressive C. difficile testing; (b) empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; (c) improved adherence to hand hygiene and (d) contact precautions; (e) improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and (f) improved environmental cleaning. Our analysis compared these interventions using values representing 3 different scenarios: (1) base-case (BASE) values that reflect typical hospital practice, (2) intervention (INT) values that represent implementation of hospital-wide efforts to reduce C. diff transmission, and (3) optimal (OPT) values representing the highest expected results from strong adherence to the interventions. Cost parameters for each intervention were obtained from published literature. We performed our analyses assuming low, normal, and high C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility of C. difficile.ResultsINT levels of the "bundled" intervention were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year in all importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. OPT levels of intervention were cost-effective for normal and high importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. When analyzed separately, hand hygiene compliance, environmental decontamination, and empiric isolation and treatment were the interventions that had the greatest impact on both cost and effectiveness.ConclusionsA combination of available interventions to prevent CDI is likely to be cost-effective but the cost-effectiveness varies for different levels of intensity of the interventions depending on epidemiological conditions such as C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility.

Project description:BackgroundClostridium difficile is one of the most common and important nosocomial pathogens, causing severe gastrointestinal disease in hospitalized patients. Although "bundled" interventions have been proposed and promoted, optimal control strategies remain unknown.MethodsWe designed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection, which included components such as: patients and health care workers, and their interactions; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. We then introduced six interventions, alone and "bundled" together: aggressive C. difficile testing; empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; improved adherence to hand hygiene and contact precautions; improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and improved environmental cleaning. All interventions were tested using values representing base-case, typical intervention, and optimal intervention scenarios.FindingsIn the base-case scenario, C. difficile infection rates ranged from 8-21 cases/10,000 patient-days, with a case detection fraction between 32%-50%. Implementing the "bundle" at typical intervention levels had a large impact on C. difficile acquisition and infection rates, although intensifying the intervention to optimal levels had much less additional impact. Most of the impact came from improved hand hygiene and empiric isolation and treatment of suspected C. difficile cases.ConclusionA "bundled" intervention is likely to reduce nosocomial C. difficile infection rates, even under typical implementation conditions. Real-world implementation of the "bundle" should focus on those components of the intervention that are likely to produce the greatest impact on C. difficile infection rates, such as hand hygiene and empiric isolation and treatment of suspected cases.

Project description:ImportanceClostridioides difficile infection is the most common hospital-acquired infection in the United States, yet few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of infection control initiatives targeting C difficile.ObjectiveTo compare the cost-effectiveness of 9 C difficile single intervention strategies and 8 multi-intervention bundles.Design, setting, and participantsThis economic evaluation was conducted in a simulated 200-bed tertiary, acute care, adult hospital. The study relied on clinical outcomes from a published agent-based simulation model of C difficile transmission. The model included 4 agent types (ie, patients, nurses, physicians, and visitors). Cost and utility estimates were derived from the literature.InterventionsDaily sporicidal cleaning, terminal sporicidal cleaning, health care worker hand hygiene, patient hand hygiene, visitor hand hygiene, health care worker contact precautions, visitor contact precautions, C difficile screening at admission, and reduced intrahospital patient transfers.Main outcomes and measuresCost-effectiveness was evaluated from the hospital perspective and defined by 2 measures: cost per hospital-onset C difficile infection averted and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).ResultsIn this agent-based model of a simulated 200-bed tertiary, acute care, adult hospital, 5 of 9 single intervention strategies were dominant, reducing cost, increasing QALYs, and averting hospital-onset C difficile infection compared with baseline standard hospital practices. They were daily cleaning (most cost-effective, saving $358 268 and 36.8 QALYs annually), health care worker hand hygiene, patient hand hygiene, terminal cleaning, and reducing intrahospital patient transfers. Screening at admission cost $1283/QALY, while health care worker contact precautions and visitor hand hygiene interventions cost $123 264/QALY and $5 730 987/QALY, respectively. Visitor contact precautions was dominated, with increased cost and decreased QALYs. Adding screening, health care worker hand hygiene, and patient hand hygiene sequentially to the daily cleaning intervention formed 2-pronged, 3-pronged, and 4-pronged multi-intervention bundles that cost an additional $29 616/QALY, $50 196/QALY, and $146 792/QALY, respectively.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study suggest that institutions should seek to streamline their infection control initiatives and prioritize a smaller number of highly cost-effective interventions. Daily sporicidal cleaning was among several cost-saving strategies that could be prioritized over minimally effective, costly strategies, such as visitor contact precautions.

Dataset Information

A Dynamic Transmission Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Infection Control Strategies.

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A Dynamic Transmission Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Infection Control Strategies.

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