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The impact of overdiagnosis on the selection of efficient lung cancer screening strategies.

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently updated their national lung screening guidelines and recommended low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for lung cancer (LC) screening through age 80. However, the risk of overdiagnosis among older populations is a concern. Using four comparative models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network, we evaluate the overdiagnosis of the screening program recommended by USPSTF in the U.S. 1950 birth cohort. We estimate the number of LC deaths averted by screening (D) per overdiagnosed case (O), yielding the ratio D/O, to quantify the trade-off between the harms and benefits of LDCT. We analyze 576 hypothetical screening strategies that vary by age, smoking, and screening frequency and evaluate efficient screening strategies that maximize the D/O ratio and other metrics including D and life-years gained (LYG) per overdiagnosed case. The estimated D/O ratio for the USPSTF screening program is 2.85 (model range: 1.5-4.5) in the 1950 birth cohort, implying LDCT can prevent ?3 LC deaths per overdiagnosed case. This D/O ratio increases by 22% when the program stops screening at an earlier age 75 instead of 80. Efficiency frontier analysis shows that while the most efficient screening strategies that maximize the mortality reduction (D) irrespective of overdiagnosis screen through age 80, screening strategies that stop at age 75 versus 80 produce greater efficiency in increasing life-years gained per overdiagnosed case. Given the risk of overdiagnosis with LC screening, the stopping age of screening merits further consideration when balancing benefits and harms.

SUBMITTER: Han SS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5516788 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of overdiagnosis on the selection of efficient lung cancer screening strategies.

Han Summer S SS Ten Haaf Kevin K Hazelton William D WD Munshi Vidit N VN Jeon Jihyoun J Erdogan Saadet A SA Johanson Colden C McMahon Pamela M PM Meza Rafael R Kong Chung Yin CY Feuer Eric J EJ de Koning Harry J HJ Plevritis Sylvia K SK

International journal of cancer 20170601 11

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently updated their national lung screening guidelines and recommended low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for lung cancer (LC) screening through age 80. However, the risk of overdiagnosis among older populations is a concern. Using four comparative models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network, we evaluate the overdiagnosis of the screening program recommended by USPSTF in the U.S. 1950 birth cohort. We estimate the num ...[more]

PMID: 28073150

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Project description:ObjectiveTo elicit women's responses to information about the nature and extent of overdiagnosis in mammography screening (detecting disease that would not present clinically during the woman's lifetime) and explore how awareness of overdiagnosis might influence attitudes and intentions about screening.DesignQualitative study using focus groups that included a presentation explaining overdiagnosis, incorporating different published estimates of its rate (1-10%, 30%, 50%) and information on the mortality benefit of screening, with guided group discussionsSettingSydney, AustraliaParticipantsFifty women aged 40-79 years with no personal history of breast cancer and with varying levels of education and participation in screening.ResultsPrior awareness of breast cancer overdiagnosis was minimal. Women generally reacted with surprise, but most came to understand the issue. Responses to overdiagnosis and the different estimates of its magnitude were diverse. The highest estimate (50%) made some women perceive a need for more careful personal decision making about screening. In contrast, the lower and intermediate estimates (1-10% and 30%) had limited impact on attitudes and intentions, with many women remaining committed to screening. For some women, the information raised concerns, not about whether to screen but whether to treat a screen detected cancer or consider alternative approaches (such as watchful waiting). Information preferences varied: many women considered it important to take overdiagnosis into account and make informed choices about whether to have screening, but many wanted to be encouraged to be screened.ConclusionsWomen from a range of socioeconomic backgrounds could comprehend the issue of overdiagnosis in mammography screening, and they generally valued information about it. Effects on screening intentions may depend heavily on the rate of overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis will be new and counterintuitive for many people and may influence screening and treatment decisions in unintended ways, underscoring the need for careful communication.

Project description:ObjectiveTo determine the optimal method for quantifying and monitoring overdiagnosis in cancer screening over time.DesignSystematic review of primary research studies of any design that quantified overdiagnosis from screening for nine types of cancer. We used explicit criteria to critically appraise individual studies and assess strength of the body of evidence for each study design (double blinded review), and assessed the potential for each study design to accurately quantify and monitor overdiagnosis over time.Data sourcesPubMed and Embase up to 28 February 2014; hand searching of systematic reviews.Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesEnglish language studies of any design that quantified overdiagnosis for any of nine common cancers (prostate, breast, lung, colorectal, melanoma, bladder, renal, thyroid, and uterine); excluded case series, case reports, and reviews that only reported results of other studies.Results52 studies met the inclusion criteria. We grouped studies into four methodological categories: (1) follow-up of a well designed randomized controlled trial (n=3), which has low risk of bias but may not be generalizable and is not suitable for monitoring; (2) pathological or imaging studies (n=8), drawing conclusions about overdiagnosis by examining biological characteristics of cancers, a simple design limited by the uncertain assumption that the measured characteristics are highly correlated with disease progression; (3) modeling studies (n=21), which can be done in a shorter time frame but require complex mathematical equations simulating the natural course of screen detected cancer, the fundamental unknown question; and (4) ecological and cohort studies (n=20), which are suitable for monitoring over time but are limited by a lack of agreed standards, by variable data quality, by inadequate follow-up time, and by the potential for population level confounders. Some ecological and cohort studies, however, have addressed these potential weaknesses in reasonable ways.ConclusionsWell conducted ecological and cohort studies in multiple settings are the most appropriate approach for quantifying and monitoring overdiagnosis in cancer screening programs. To support this work, we need internationally agreed standards for ecological and cohort studies and a multinational team of unbiased researchers to perform ongoing analysis.

Project description:BackgroundRisk-prediction models have been proposed to select individuals for lung cancer screening. However, their long-term effects are uncertain. This study evaluates long-term benefits and harms of risk-based screening compared with current United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations.MethodsFour independent natural history models were used to perform a comparative modeling study evaluating long-term benefits and harms of selecting individuals for lung cancer screening through risk-prediction models. In total, 363 risk-based screening strategies varying by screening starting and stopping age, risk-prediction model used for eligibility (Bach, PLCOm2012, or Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]), and risk threshold were evaluated for a 1950 US birth cohort. Among the evaluated outcomes were percentage of individuals ever screened, screens required, lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, and overdiagnosis.ResultsRisk-based screening strategies requiring similar screens among individuals ages 55-80 years as the USPSTF criteria (corresponding risk thresholds: Bach = 2.8%; PLCOm2012 = 1.7%; LCDRAT = 1.7%) averted considerably more lung cancer deaths (Bach = 693; PLCOm2012 = 698; LCDRAT = 696; USPSTF = 613). However, life-years gained were only modestly higher (Bach = 8660; PLCOm2012 = 8862; LCDRAT = 8631; USPSTF = 8590), and risk-based strategies had more overdiagnosed cases (Bach = 149; PLCOm2012 = 147; LCDRAT = 150; USPSTF = 115). Sensitivity analyses suggest excluding individuals with limited life expectancies (<5 years) from screening retains the life-years gained by risk-based screening, while reducing overdiagnosis by more than 65.3%.ConclusionsRisk-based lung cancer screening strategies prevent considerably more lung cancer deaths than current recommendations do. However, they yield modest additional life-years and increased overdiagnosis because of predominantly selecting older individuals. Efficient implementation of risk-based lung cancer screening requires careful consideration of life expectancy for determining optimal individual stopping ages.

Project description:Introduction. Patient decision aid (PDA) certification standards recommend including the positive and negative features of each option of the decision. This review describes the inclusion of concepts related to overdiagnosis and overtreatment, negative features often ambiguously defined, in cancer screening PDAs. Methods. Our process followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We reviewed 1) current systematic reviews of decision aids, 2) the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute Decision Aid Library Inventory, and 3) a web-based, gray literature search. Two independent reviewers identified and evaluated PDAs using content analysis. Reviewers coded whether overdiagnosis/overtreatment was described as 1) detecting cancer that would not lead to death, 2) detecting cancer that would not cause symptoms, and/or 3) a potential harm or consequence of screening. Coding discrepancies were resolved through consensus. Results. A total of 904 records (e.g., articles, PDAs) were reviewed and 85 PDAs were identified: prostate (n = 36), breast (n = 26), lung (n = 10), colorectal (n = 10), and other (n = 3). Sixty-seven PDAs included concepts related to overdiagnosis/overtreatment; 57 (67.1%) used a term other than overdiagnosis/overtreatment, 23 (27.1%) used the specific term "overdiagnosis," and 13 (15.3%) used "overtreatment." PDAs described overdiagnosis/overtreatment as a potential harm or consequence of screening (n = 62) and/or a detection of a cancer that would not cause symptoms (n = 49). Thirty-six described overdiagnosis as the detection of a cancer that would not result in death. Twenty PDAs described the probabilities associated with overdiagnosis/overtreatment. Conclusions. Over three quarters of cancer screening PDAs addressed concepts related to overdiagnosis/overtreatment, yet terminology was inconsistent and few included probability estimates. Consistent terminology and minimum standards to describe overdiagnosis/overtreatment would help guide the design and certification of cancer screening PDAs.

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The impact of overdiagnosis on the selection of efficient lung cancer screening strategies.

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The impact of overdiagnosis on the selection of efficient lung cancer screening strategies.

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