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Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China.

ABSTRACT: Direct residential and transportation energy consumption (RTC) contributes significantly to ambient fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 ?m (PM2.5) in China. During massive rural-urban migration, population and pollutant emissions from RTC have evolved in terms of magnitude and geographic distribution, which was thought to worsen PM2.5 levels in cities but has not been quantitatively addressed. We quantify the temporal trends and spatial patterns of migration to cities and evaluate their associated pollutant emissions from RTC and subsequent health impact from 1980 to 2030. We show that, despite increased urban RTC emissions due to migration, the net effect of migration in China has been a reduction of PM2.5 exposure, primarily because of an unequal distribution of RTC energy mixes between urban and rural areas. After migration, people have switched to cleaner fuel types, which considerably lessened regional emissions. Consequently, the national average PM2.5 exposure concentration in 2010 was reduced by 3.9 ?g/m3 (90% confidence interval, 3.0 to 5.4 ?g/m3) due to migration, corresponding to an annual reduction of 36,000 (19,000 to 47,000) premature deaths. This reduction was the result of an increase in deaths by 142,000 (78,000 to 181,000) due to migrants swarming into cities and decreases in deaths by 148,000 (76,000 to 194,000) and 29,000 (15,000 to 39,000) due to transitions to a cleaner energy mix and lower urban population densities, respectively. Locally, however, megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai experienced increases in PM2.5 exposure associated with migration because these cities received massive immigration, which has driven a large increase in local emissions.

SUBMITTER: Shen H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5517109 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China.

Shen Huizhong H Tao Shu S Chen Yilin Y Ciais Philippe P Güneralp Burak B Ru Muye M Zhong Qirui Q Yun Xiao X Zhu Xi X Huang Tianbo T Tao Wei W Chen Yuanchen Y Li Bengang B Wang Xilong X Liu Wenxin W Liu Junfeng J Zhao Shuqing S

Science advances 20170719 7

Direct residential and transportation energy consumption (RTC) contributes significantly to ambient fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in China. During massive rural-urban migration, population and pollutant emissions from RTC have evolved in terms of magnitude and geographic distribution, which was thought to worsen PM2.5 levels in cities but has not been quantitatively addressed. We quantify the temporal trends and spatial patterns of migr ...[more]

PMID: 28776030

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Project description:Elevated levels of ambient air pollution has been implicated as a major risk factor for morbidities and premature mortality in India, with particularly high concentrations of particulate matter in the Indo-Gangetic plain. High resolution spatiotemporal estimates of such exposures are critical to assess health effects at an individual level. This article retrospectively assesses daily average PM2.5 exposure at 1 km × 1 km grids in Delhi, India from 2010-2016, using multiple data sources and ensemble averaging approaches. We used a multi-stage modeling exercise involving satellite data, land use variables, reanalysis based meteorological variables and population density. A calibration regression was used to model PM2.5: PM10 to counter the sparsity of ground monitoring data. The relationship between PM2.5 and its spatiotemporal predictors was modeled using six learners; generalized additive models, elastic net, support vector regressions, random forests, neural networks and extreme gradient boosting. Subsequently, these predictions were combined under a generalized additive model framework using a tensor product based spatial smoothing. Overall cross-validated prediction accuracy of the model was 80% over the study period with high spatial model accuracy and predicted annual average concentrations ranging from 87 to 138 μg/m3. Annual average root mean squared errors for the ensemble averaged predictions were in the range 39.7-62.7 μg/m3 with prediction bias ranging between 4.6-11.2 μg/m3. In addition, tree based learners such as random forests and extreme gradient boosting outperformed other algorithms. Our findings indicate important seasonal and geographical differences in particulate matter concentrations within Delhi over a significant period of time, with meteorological and land use features that discriminate most and least polluted regions. This exposure assessment can be used to estimate dose response relationships more accurately over a wide range of particulate matter concentrations.

Project description:IntroductionLong-term exposure to ambient air pollution is related to major cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia and overweight, but with few studies in high-concentration nations like China so far. We aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm, PM2.5) and major cardiovascular risk factors in China.MethodsAdult participants with selected biochemical tests were recruited from the Chinese Physiological Constant and Health Condition (CPCHC) survey conducted from 2007 to 2011. Gridded PM2.5 data used were derived from satellite-observed data with adjustment of ground-observed data. District-level PM2.5 data were generated to estimate the association using multivariate logistic regression model and generalized additive model.ResultsA total of 19,236 participants from the CPCHC survey were included with an average age of 42.8 ± 16.1 years, of which nearly half were male (47.0%). The annual average PM2.5 exposure before the CPCHC survey was 33.4 (14.8-53.4) μg/m3, ranging from 8.0 μg/m3 (Xiwuqi) to 94.7 μg/m3 (Chengdu). Elevated PM2.5 was associated with increased prevalence of hypertension (odds ratio (OR) =1.022, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.001, 1.043) and decreased prevalence of overweight (OR = 0.926, 95%CI: 0.910, 0.942). Education significantly interacted with PM2.5 in association with all the interesting risk factors. Each 10 μg/m3 increment of PM2.5 was associated with increased prevalence of diabetes (OR = 1.118, 95%CI: 1.037, 1.206), hypertension (OR = 1.101, 95%CI: 1.056, 1.147), overweight (OR = 1.071, 95%CI: 1.030, 1.114) in participants with poor education, but not in well-educated population. PM2.5 exposure was negatively associated with hyperlipidemia in all participants (OR = 0.939, 95%CI: 0.921, 0.957). The results were robust in all the sensitivity analyses.ConclusionAssociation between long-term PM2.5 exposure and cardiovascular risk factors might be modified by education. PM2.5 was associated with a higher prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and overweight in a less-educated population with time-expose dependency. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 might be associated with a lower prevalence of hyperlipidemia.

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Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China.

Publications

Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations in China.

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