Dataset Information

Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection.

ABSTRACT: Following the 2013-14 outbreak in French Polynesia, the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic spread widely to many countries where Aedes Aegypti as the main transmitting vector is endemic. The lack of a second wave of ZIKV infection in most affected regions may suggest that a sufficiently high level of herd immunity was reached during the first wave. We developed an agent-based transmission model to investigate the role of asymptomatic infection on the likelihood of observing a second wave, while accounting for its relative transmissibility. We found that, as the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic infection increases, a second wave is more likely to occur, despite an increase in the attack rate during the first wave. When the reproduction number varies between 1.9 and 2.8 based on estimates for Antioquia, Colombia, the attack rate varies between 4% and 26% for a low (below 10%) effectiveness of interventions in blunting the ZIKV transmission from symptomatic cases to mosquitoes. Moreover, the fraction of cases due to sexual transmission is estimated below 4% of the cumulative incidence. Our analyses underscore the need to quantify the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections, without which the overall attack rates and the level of herd immunity cannot be accurately estimated.

SUBMITTER: Moghadas SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5517554 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection.

Moghadas Seyed M SM Shoukat Affan A Espindola Aquino L AL Pereira Rafael S RS Abdirizak Fatima F Laskowski Marek M Viboud Cecile C Chowell Gerardo G

Scientific reports 20170719 1

Following the 2013-14 outbreak in French Polynesia, the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic spread widely to many countries where Aedes Aegypti as the main transmitting vector is endemic. The lack of a second wave of ZIKV infection in most affected regions may suggest that a sufficiently high level of herd immunity was reached during the first wave. We developed an agent-based transmission model to investigate the role of asymptomatic infection on the likelihood of observing a second wave, while accounti ...[more]

PMID: 28724972

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Project description:BackgroundThe huge surge in COVID-19 cases in Karnataka state, India, during early phase of the pandemic especially following return of residents from other states and countries required investigation with respect to transmission dynamics, clinical status, demographics, comorbidities and mortality. Knowledge on the role of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was not available.MethodsThe study included all the cases reported from March 8 - May 31, 2020. Individuals with a history of international or domestic travel from high burden states, Influenza-like Illness or Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and high-risk contacts of COVID-19 cases were included. Detailed analysis based on contact tracing data available from the line-list of state surveillance unit was performed using cluster network analysis software.FindingsAmongst the 3404 COVID-19 positive cases, 3096 (91%) were asymptomatic while 308 (9%) were symptomatic. Majority of asymptomatic cases were in the age range of 16 and 45 years while symptomatic cases were between 31 and 65 years. Mortality rate was especially higher among middle-aged and elderly cases with co-morbidities, 34/38 (89·4%). Cluster network analysis of 822 cases indicated that the secondary attack rate, size of the cluster and superspreading events were higher when the source case was symptomatic as compared to an asymptomatic.InterpretationOur findings indicate that both asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases transmit the infection, although symptomatic cases were the main driving force within the state during the beginning of the pandemic. Considering the large proportion of asymptomatic cases, their ability to spread infection cannot be overlooked. Notwithstanding the limitations and bias in identifying asymptomatic cases, the findings have major implications for testing policies. Active search, early testing and treatment of symptomatic elderly patients with comorbidities should be prioritized for containing the spread of COVID-19 and reducing mortality.FundingIntermediate Fellowship, Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance to Giridhara R Babu, Grant number: IA/CPHI/14/1/501499.

Dataset Information

Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection.

Publications

Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection.

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