Effects of multiple transmission pathways on Zika dynamics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Olawoyin O
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6326220 | biostudies-other | 2018
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Following the 2013-14 outbreak in French Polynesia, the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic spread widely to many countries where Aedes Aegypti as the main transmitting vector is endemic. The lack of a second wave of ZIKV infection in most affected regions may suggest that a sufficiently high level of herd immunity was reached during the first wave. We developed an agent-based transmission model to investigate the role of asymptomatic infection on the likelihood of observing a second wave, while accounting for its relative transmissibility. We found that, as the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic infection increases, a second wave is more likely to occur, despite an increase in the attack rate during the first wave. When the reproduction number varies between 1.9 and 2.8 based on estimates for Antioquia, Colombia, the attack rate varies between 4% and 26% for a low (below 10%) effectiveness of interventions in blunting the ZIKV transmission from symptomatic cases to mosquitoes. Moreover, the fraction of cases due to sexual transmission is estimated below 4% of the cumulative incidence. Our analyses underscore the need to quantify the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections, without which the overall attack rates and the level of herd immunity cannot be accurately estimated.
| S-EPMC5517554 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Zika virus (ZIKV) is a newly emergent relative of the Flaviviridae family and linked to dengue (DENV) and Chikungunya (CHIVKV). ZIKV is one of the rising pathogens promptly surpassing geographical borders. ZIKV infection was characterized by mild disease with fever, headache, rash, arthralgia and conjunctivitis, with exceptional reports of an association with Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly. However, since the end of 2015, an increase in the number of GBS associated cases and an astonishing number of microcephaly in fetus and new-borns in Brazil have been related to ZIKV infection, raising serious worldwide public health concerns. ZIKV is transmitted by the bite of infected female mosquitoes of Aedes species. Clarifying such worrisome relationships is, thus, a current unavoidable goal. Here, we extensively described the current understanding of the effects of ZIKV on heath, clinical manifestation, diagnosis and treatment options based on modern, alternative and complementary medicines regarding the disease.
| S-EPMC7057477 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Because of limited data, much remains uncertain about parameters related to transmission dynamics of Zika virus (ZIKV). Estimating a large number of parameters from the limited information in data may not provide useful knowledge about the ZIKV. Here, we developed a method that utilizes a mathematical model of ZIKV dynamics and the complex-step derivative approximation technique to identify parameters that can be estimated from the available data. Applying our method to epidemic data from the ZIKV outbreaks in French Polynesia and Yap Island, we identified the parameters that can be estimated from these island data. Our results suggest that the parameters that can be estimated from a given data set, as well as the estimated values of those parameters, vary from Island to Island. Our method allowed us to estimate some ZIKV-related parameters with reasonable confidence intervals. We also computed the basic reproduction number to be from 2.03 to 3.20 across islands. Furthermore, using our model, we evaluated potential prevention strategies and found that peak prevalence can be reduced to nearly 10% by reducing mosquito-to-human contact by at least 60% or increasing mosquito death by at least a factor of three of the base case. With these preventions, the final outbreak-size is predicted to be negligible, thereby successfully controlling ZIKV epidemics.
| S-EPMC6646355 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Colombia was the second most affected country during the American Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic, with over 109,000 reported cases. Despite the scale of the outbreak, limited genomic sequence data were available from Colombia. We sought to sequence additional samples and use genomic epidemiology to describe ZIKV dynamics in Colombia. METHODS:We sequenced ZIKV genomes directly from clinical diagnostic specimens and infected Aedes aegypti samples selected to cover the temporal and geographic breadth of the Colombian outbreak. We performed phylogeographic analysis of these genomes, along with other publicly-available ZIKV genomes from the Americas, to estimate the frequency and timing of ZIKV introductions to Colombia. RESULTS:We attempted PCR amplification on 184 samples; 19 samples amplified sufficiently to perform sequencing. Of these, 8 samples yielded sequences with at least 50% coverage. Our phylogeographic reconstruction indicates two separate introductions of ZIKV to Colombia, one of which was previously unrecognized. We find that ZIKV was first introduced to Colombia in February 2015 (95%CI: Jan 2015 - Apr 2015), corresponding to 5 to 8 months of cryptic ZIKV transmission prior to confirmation in September 2015. Despite the presence of multiple introductions, we find that the majority of Colombian ZIKV diversity descends from a single introduction. We find evidence for movement of ZIKV from Colombia into bordering countries, including Peru, Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela. CONCLUSIONS:Similarly to genomic epidemiological studies of ZIKV dynamics in other countries, we find that ZIKV circulated cryptically in Colombia. More accurately dating when ZIKV was circulating refines our definition of the population at risk. Additionally, our finding that the majority of ZIKV transmission within Colombia was attributable to transmission between individuals, rather than repeated travel-related importations, indicates that improved detection and control might have succeeded in limiting the scale of the outbreak within Colombia.
| S-EPMC6852897 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMathematical modeling has become a tool used to address many emerging diseases. One of the most basic and popular modeling frameworks is the compartmental model. Unfortunately, most of the available compartmental models developed for Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission were designed to describe and reconstruct only past, short-time ZIKV outbreaks in which the effects of seasonal change to entomological parameters can be ignored. To make an accurate long-term prediction of ZIKV transmission, the inclusion of seasonal effects into an epidemic model is unavoidable.MethodsWe developed a vector-borne compartmental model to analyze the spread of the ZIKV during the 2015-2016 outbreaks in Bahia, Brazil and to investigate the impact of two vector control strategies, namely, reducing mosquito biting rates and reducing mosquito population size. The model considered the influences of seasonal change on the ZIKV transmission dynamics via the time-varying mosquito biting rate. The model was also validated by comparing the model prediction with reported data that were not used to calibrate the model.ResultsWe found that the model can give a very good fit between the simulation results and the reported Zika cases in Bahia (R-square?=?0.9989). At the end of 2016, the total number of ZIKV infected people was predicted to be 1.2087 million. The model also predicted that there would not be a large outbreak from May 2016 to December 2016 due to the decrease of the susceptible pool. Implementing disease mitigation by reducing the mosquito biting rates was found to be more effective than reducing the mosquito population size. Finally, the correlation between the time series of estimated mosquito biting rates and the average temperature was also suggested.ConclusionsThe proposed ZIKV transmission model together with the estimated weekly biting rates can reconstruct the past long-time multi-peak ZIKV outbreaks in Bahia.
| S-EPMC6069545 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The outbreak of the Zika virus (ZIKV) has been associated with increased incidence of congenital malformations. Although recent efforts have focused on vaccine development, treatments for infected individuals are needed urgently. Sofosbuvir (SOF), an FDA-approved nucleotide analog inhibitor of the Hepatitis C (HCV) RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) was recently shown to be protective against ZIKV both in vitro and in vivo. Here, we show that SOF protected human neural progenitor cells (NPC) and 3D neurospheres from ZIKV infection-mediated cell death and importantly restored the antiviral immune response in NPCs. In vivo, SOF treatment post-infection (p.i.) decreased viral burden in an immunodeficient mouse model. Finally, we show for the first time that acute SOF treatment of pregnant dams p.i. was well-tolerated and prevented vertical transmission of the virus to the fetus. Taken together, our data confirmed SOF-mediated sparing of human neural cell types from ZIKV-mediated cell death in vitro and reduced viral burden in vivo in animal models of chronic infection and vertical transmission, strengthening the growing body of evidence for SOF anti-ZIKV activity.
| S-EPMC5775359 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The mosquito-borne viruses dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV), now co-endemic in the Americas, pose growing threats to health worldwide. However, it remains unclear whether there exist interactions between these viruses that could shape their epidemiology. This study advances knowledge by assessing the transmission dynamics of co-circulating DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV in the city of Fortaleza, Brazil. Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV were analyzed using georeferenced data on over 210,000 reported cases from 2011 to 2017 in Fortaleza, Brazil. Local spatial clustering tests and space-time scan statistics were used to compare transmission dynamics across all years. The transmission of co-circulating viruses in 2016 and 2017 was evaluated at fine spatial and temporal scales using a measure of spatiotemporal dependence, the ?-statistic. Results revealed differences in the diffusion of CHIKV compared to previous DENV epidemics and spatially distinct transmission of DENV/ZIKV and CHIKV during the period of their co-circulation. Significant spatial clustering of viruses of the same type was observed within 14-day time intervals at distances of up to 6.8 km (p<0.05). These results suggest that arbovirus risk is not uniformly distributed within cities during co-circulation. Findings may guide outbreak preparedness and response efforts by highlighting the clustered nature of transmission of co-circulating arboviruses at the neighborhood level. The potential for competitive interactions between the arboviruses should be further investigated.
| S-EPMC7644107 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNicaragua experienced a large Zika epidemic in 2016, with up to 50% of the population in Managua infected. With the domesticated Aedes aegypti mosquito as its vector, it is widely assumed that Zika virus transmission occurs within the household and/or via human mobility. We investigated these assumptions by using viral genomes to trace Zika transmission spatially.MethodsWe analysed serum samples from 119 paediatric Zika cases participating in the long-standing Paediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Managua, which was expanded to include Zika in 2015. An optimal spanning directed tree was constructed by minimizing the differences in viral sequence diversity composition between patient nodes, where low-frequency variants were used to increase the resolution of the inferred Zika outbreak dynamics.FindingsOut of the 18 houses where pairwise difference in sample collection dates among all the household members was within 30 days, we only found two where viruses from individuals within the same household were up to 10th-most closely linked to each other genetically. We also identified a substantial number of transmission events involving long geographical distances (n=30), as well as potential super-spreading events in the estimated transmission tree.InterpretationOur finding highlights that community transmission, often involving long geographical distances, played a much more important role in epidemic spread than within-household transmission.FundingThis study was supported by an NUS startup grant (OMS) and grants R01 AI099631 (AB), P01 AI106695 (EH), P01 AI106695-03S1 (FB), and U19 AI118610 (EH) from the US National Institutes of Health.
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Project description:Asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus disease and the infected individual prediction has become very important in the COVID-19 outbreak study. The asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission studies are still ongoing to assess their impacts on disease monitoring and burden. However, there has been limited research on how asymptomatic and symptomatic transmissions together can affect the coronavirus disease outbreak. A mathematical model is therefore needed to be developed in order to assess the effect of these transmissions on the coronavirus disease dynamics. This paper develops a mathematical model concerning asymptomatic and symptomatic disease transmission processes in the COVID-19 outbreak. The model sensitivity has been analysed in terms of the variance of each parameter, and the local stability at two equilibrium points have been discussed in terms of the basic reproduction number (R0). It is found that the disease-free equilibrium gets stable for R0 < 1 whereas the endemic equilibrium becomes stable for R0 > 1 and unstable otherwise. The proportion of the effect of asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission rates on R0 is calculated to be approximately between 1 and 3. The results demonstrate that asymptomatic transmission has a significant impact compared to symptomatic transmission in the disease outbreak. Outcomes of this study will contribute to setting an effective control strategy for the COVID-19 outbreak.
| S-EPMC8788092 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In December 2013, during a Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in French Polynesia, a patient in Tahiti sought treatment for hematospermia, and ZIKV was isolated from his semen. ZIKV transmission by sexual intercourse has been previously suspected. This observation supports the possibility that ZIKV could be transmitted sexually.
| S-EPMC4313657 | biostudies-literature