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Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam.

ABSTRACT: While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods - wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling - we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.

SUBMITTER: Delabouglise A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5517570 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam.

Delabouglise Alexis A Choisy Marc M Phan Thang D TD Antoine-Moussiaux Nicolas N Peyre Marisa M Vu Ton D TD Pfeiffer Dirk U DU Fournié Guillaume G

Scientific reports 20170719 1

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods - wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling - we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are assoc ...[more]

PMID: 28724978

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Project description:Two subtypes of influenza A virus (IAV), avian-origin canine influenza virus (CIV) H3N2 (CIV-H3N2) and equine-origin CIV H3N8 (CIV-H3N8), are enzootic in the canine population. Dogs have been demonstrated to seroconvert in response to diverse IAVs, and naturally occurring reassortants of CIV-H3N2 and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) have been isolated. We conducted a thorough phenotypic evaluation of CIV-H3N2 in order to assess its threat to human health. Using ferret-generated antiserum, we determined that CIV-H3N2 is antigenically distinct from contemporary human H3N2 IAVs, suggesting that there may be minimal herd immunity in humans. We assessed the public health risk of CIV-H3N2 × pandemic H1N1 (pdmH1N1) reassortants by characterizing their in vitro genetic compatibility and in vivo pathogenicity and transmissibility. Using a luciferase minigenome assay, we quantified the polymerase activity of all possible 16 ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complexes (PB2, PB1, PA, NP) between CIV-H3N2 and pdmH1N1, identifying some combinations that were more active than either parental virus complex. Using reverse genetics and fixing the CIV-H3N2 hemagglutinin (HA), we found that 51 of the 127 possible reassortant viruses were viable and able to be rescued. Nineteen of these reassortant viruses had high-growth phenotypes in vitro, and 13 of these replicated in mouse lungs. A single reassortant with the NP and HA gene segments from CIV-H3N2 was selected for characterization in ferrets. The reassortant was efficiently transmitted by contact but not by the airborne route and was pathogenic in ferrets. Our results suggest that CIV-H3N2 reassortants may pose a moderate risk to public health and that the canine host should be monitored for emerging IAVs.IMPORTANCE IAV pandemics are caused by the introduction of novel viruses that are capable of efficient and sustained transmission into a human population with limited herd immunity. Dogs are a a potential mixing vessel for avian and mammalian IAVs and represent a human health concern due to their susceptibility to infection, large global population, and close physical contact with humans. Our results suggest that humans are likely to have limited preexisting immunity to CIV-H3N2 and that CIV-H3N2 × pdmH1N1 reassortants have moderate genetic compatibility and are transmissible by direct contact in ferrets. Our study contributes to the increasing evidence that surveillance of the canine population for IAVs is an important component of pandemic preparedness.

Dataset Information

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam.

Publications

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam.

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