Dataset Information

An ecological and digital epidemiology analysis on the role of human behavior on the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak in Martinique.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic infections is of critical importance for a deeper understanding of pathogen transmission, and for the design of more efficient public health strategies. However, very few studies in this domain have focused on emerging infections, generating a gap of knowledge that hampers epidemiological response planning. Here, we analyze the case of a Chikungunya outbreak that occurred in Martinique in 2014. Using time series estimates from a network of sentinel practitioners covering the entire island, we first analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics and show that the largest city has served as the epicenter of this epidemic. We further show that the epidemic spread from there through two different propagation waves moving northwards and southwards, probably by individuals moving along the road network. We then develop a mathematical model to explore the drivers of the temporal dynamics of this mosquito-borne virus. Finally, we show that human behavior, inferred by a textual analysis of messages published on the social network Twitter, is required to explain the epidemiological dynamics over time. Overall, our results suggest that human behavior has been a key component of the outbreak propagation, and we argue that such results can lead to more efficient public health strategies specifically targeting the propagation process.

SUBMITTER: Roche B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5519737 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An ecological and digital epidemiology analysis on the role of human behavior on the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak in Martinique.

Roche Benjamin B Gaillard Béatrice B Léger Lucas L Pélagie-Moutenda Renélise R Sochacki Thomas T Cazelles Bernard B Ledrans Martine M Blateau Alain A Fontenille Didier D Etienne Manuel M Simard Frédéric F Salathé Marcel M Yébakima André A

Scientific reports 20170720 1

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic infections is of critical importance for a deeper understanding of pathogen transmission, and for the design of more efficient public health strategies. However, very few studies in this domain have focused on emerging infections, generating a gap of knowledge that hampers epidemiological response planning. Here, we analyze the case of a Chikungunya outbreak that occurred in Martinique in 2014. Using time series estimates from a network of se ...[more]

PMID: 28729711

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Project description:Since emerging in Saint Martin in 2013, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an alphavirus transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, has infected approximately two million individuals in the Americas, with over 500,000 reported cases in the Dominican Republic (DR). CHIKV-infected patients typically present with a febrile syndrome including polyarthritis/polyarthralgia, and a macropapular rash, similar to those infected with dengue and Zika viruses, and malaria. Nevertheless, many Dominican cases are unconfirmed due to the unavailability and high cost of laboratory testing and the absence of specific treatment for CHIKV infection. To obtain a more accurate representation of chikungunya fever (CHIKF) clinical signs and symptoms, and confirm the viral lineage responsible for the DR CHIKV outbreak, we tested 194 serum samples for CHIKV RNA and IgM antibodies from patients seen in a hospital in La Romana, DR using quantitative RT-PCR and IgM capture ELISA, and performed retrospective chart reviews. RNA and antibodies were detected in 49% and 24.7% of participants, respectively. Sequencing revealed that the CHIKV strain responsible for the La Romana outbreak belonged to the Asian/American lineage and grouped phylogenetically with recent Mexican and Trinidadian isolates. Our study shows that, while CHIKV-infected individuals were infrequently diagnosed with CHIKF, uninfected patients were never falsely diagnosed with CHIKF. Participants testing positive for CHIKV RNA were more likely to present with arthralgia, although it was reported in just 20.0% of CHIKF+ individuals. High percentages of respiratory (19.6%) signs and symptoms, especially among children, were noted, though it was not possible to determine whether individuals infected with CHIKV were co-infected with other pathogens. These results suggest that CHIKV may have been underdiagnosed during this outbreak, and that CHIKF should be included in differential diagnoses of diverse undifferentiated febrile syndromes in the Americas.

Dataset Information

An ecological and digital epidemiology analysis on the role of human behavior on the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak in Martinique.

Publications

An ecological and digital epidemiology analysis on the role of human behavior on the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak in Martinique.

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