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Improving efficiency of parameter estimation in case-cohort studies with multivariate failure time data.

ABSTRACT: The case-cohort study design is an effective way to reduce cost of assembling and measuring expensive covariates in large cohort studies. Recently, several weighted estimators were proposed for the case-cohort design when multiple diseases are of interest. However, these existing weighted estimators do not make effective use of the covariate information available in the whole cohort. Furthermore, the auxiliary information for the expensive covariates, which may be available in the studies, cannot be incorporated directly. In this article, we propose a class of updated-estimators. We show that, by making effective use of the whole cohort information, the proposed updated-estimators are guaranteed to be more efficient than the existing weighted estimators asymptotically. Furthermore, they are flexible to incorporate the auxiliary information whenever available. The advantages of the proposed updated-estimators are demonstrated in simulation studies and a real data analysis.

SUBMITTER: Yan Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5522786 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Improving efficiency of parameter estimation in case-cohort studies with multivariate failure time data.

Yan Ying Y Zhou Haibo H Cai Jianwen J

Biometrics 20170123 3

The case-cohort study design is an effective way to reduce cost of assembling and measuring expensive covariates in large cohort studies. Recently, several weighted estimators were proposed for the case-cohort design when multiple diseases are of interest. However, these existing weighted estimators do not make effective use of the covariate information available in the whole cohort. Furthermore, the auxiliary information for the expensive covariates, which may be available in the studies, canno ...[more]

PMID: 28112795

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Accurate estimation of operative case-time duration is critical for optimizing operating room use. Current estimates are inaccurate and earlier models include data not available at the time of scheduling. Our objective was to develop statistical models in a large retrospective data set to improve estimation of case-time duration relative to current standards. STUDY DESIGN:We developed models to predict case-time duration using linear regression and supervised machine learning. For each of these models, we generated an all-inclusive model, service-specific models, and surgeon-specific models. In the latter 2 approaches, individual models were created for each surgical service and surgeon, respectively. Our data set included 46,986 scheduled operations performed at a large academic medical center from January 2014 to December 2017, with 80% used for training and 20% for model testing/validation. Predictions derived from each model were compared with our institutional standard of using average historic procedure times and surgeon estimates. Models were evaluated based on accuracy, overage (case duration > predicted + 10%), underage (case duration < predicted - 10%), and the predictive capability of being within a 10% tolerance threshold. RESULTS:The machine learning algorithm resulted in the highest predictive capability. The surgeon-specific model was superior to the service-specific model, with higher accuracy, lower percentage of overage and underage, and higher percentage of cases within the 10% threshold. The ability to predict cases within 10% improved from 32% using our institutional standard to 39% with the machine learning surgeon-specific model. CONCLUSIONS:Our study is a notable advancement toward statistical modeling of case-time duration across all surgical departments in a large tertiary medical center. Machine learning approaches can improve case duration estimations, enabling improved operating room scheduling, efficiency, and reduced costs.

Dataset Information

Improving efficiency of parameter estimation in case-cohort studies with multivariate failure time data.

Publications

Improving efficiency of parameter estimation in case-cohort studies with multivariate failure time data.

Similar Datasets

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