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An Approach to the Estimation of Chronic Air Pollution Effects Using Spatio-Temporal Information.

ABSTRACT: There is substantial observational evidence that long-term exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with premature death in urban populations. Estimates of the magnitude of these effects derive largely from cross-sectional comparisons of adjusted mortality rates among cities with varying pollution levels. Such estimates are potentially confounded by other differences among the populations correlated with air pollution, for example, socioeconomic factors. An alternative approach is to study covariation of particulate matter and mortality across time within a city, as has been done in investigations of short-term exposures. In either event, observational studies like these are subject to confounding by unmeasured variables. Therefore the ability to detect such confounding and to derive estimates less affected by confounding are a high priority. In this article, we describe and apply a method of decomposing the exposure variable into components with variation at distinct temporal, spatial, and time by space scales, here focusing on the components involving time. Starting from a proportional hazard model, we derive a Poisson regression model and estimate two regression coefficients: the "global" coefficient that measures the association between national trends in pollution and mortality; and the "local" coefficient, derived from space by time variation, that measures the association between location-specific trends in pollution and mortality adjusted by the national trends. Absent unmeasured confounders and given valid model assumptions, the scale-specific coefficients should be similar; substantial differences in these coefficients constitute a basis for questioning the model. We derive a backfitting algorithm to fit our model to very large spatio-temporal datasets. We apply our methods to the Medicare Cohort Air Pollution Study (MCAPS), which includes individual-level information on time of death and age on a population of 18.2 million for the period 2000-2006. Results based on the global coefficient indicate a large increase in the national life expectancy for reductions in the yearly national average of PM2.5. However, this coefficient based on national trends in PM2.5 and mortality is likely to be confounded by other variables trending on the national level. Confounding of the local coefficient by unmeasured factors is less likely, although it cannot be ruled out. Based on the local coefficient alone, we are not able to demonstrate any change in life expectancy for a reduction in PM2.5. We use additional survey data available for a subset of the data to investigate sensitivity of results to the inclusion of additional covariates, but both coefficients remain largely unchanged.

SUBMITTER: Greven S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5525028 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An Approach to the Estimation of Chronic Air Pollution Effects Using Spatio-Temporal Information.

Greven Sonja S Dominici Francesca F Zeger Scott S

Journal of the American Statistical Association 20110101 494

There is substantial observational evidence that long-term exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with premature death in urban populations. Estimates of the magnitude of these effects derive largely from cross-sectional comparisons of adjusted mortality rates among cities with varying pollution levels. Such estimates are potentially confounded by other differences among the populations correlated with air pollution, for example, socioeconomic factors. An alternative approach is to ...[more]

PMID: 28751799

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Project description:BackgroundExposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) remains an important public health concern, although it remains difficult to quantify accurately across large geographic areas with sufficiently high spatial resolution. Recent epidemiologic analyses have demonstrated the importance of spatially- and temporally-resolved exposure estimates, which show larger PM-mediated health effects as compared to nearest monitor or county-specific ambient concentrations.MethodsWe developed generalized additive mixed models that describe regional and small-scale spatial and temporal gradients (and corresponding uncertainties) in monthly mass concentrations of fine (PM2.5), inhalable (PM10), and coarse mode particle mass (PM(2.5-10)) for the conterminous United States (U.S.). These models expand our previously developed models for the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. by virtue of their larger spatial domain, their inclusion of an additional 5 years of PM data to develop predictions through 2007, and their use of refined geographic covariates for population density and point-source PM emissions. Covariate selection and model validation were performed using 10-fold cross-validation (CV).ResultsThe PM2.5 models had high predictive accuracy (CV R2=0.77 for both 1988-1998 and 1999-2007). While model performance remained strong, the predictive ability of models for PM10 (CV R2=0.58 for both 1988-1998 and 1999-2007) and PM(2.5-10) (CV R2=0.46 and 0.52 for 1988-1998 and 1999-2007, respectively) was somewhat lower. Regional variation was found in the effects of geographic and meteorological covariates. Models generally performed well in both urban and rural areas and across seasons, though predictive performance varied somewhat by region (CV R2=0.81, 0.81, 0.83, 0.72, 0.69, 0.50, and 0.60 for the Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, Southcentral, Southwest, Northwest, and Central Plains regions, respectively, for PM2.5 from 1999-2007).ConclusionsOur models provide estimates of monthly-average outdoor concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, and PM(2.5-10) with high spatial resolution and low bias. Thus, these models are suitable for estimating chronic exposures of populations living in the conterminous U.S. from 1988 to 2007.

Project description:The lockdown and related measures implemented by many European countries to stop the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) pandemic have altered the economic activities and road transport in many cities. To rigorously evaluate how these measures have affected air quality in Europe, we developed Bayesian spatio-temporal (BST) models that assess changes in the surface nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration across the continent. We fitted BST models to measurements of the two pollutants in 2020 using a lockdown indicator covariate, while accounting for the spatial and temporal correlation present in the data. Since other factors, such as weather conditions, local combustion sources and/or land surface characteristics may contribute to the variation of pollutant concentrations, we proposed two model formulations that allowed the differentiation between the variations in pollutant concentrations due to seasonality from the variations associated to the lockdown policies. The first model compares the changes in 2020, with the ones during the same period in the previous five years, by introducing an offset term, which controls for the long-term average concentrations of each pollutant during 2014–2019. The second approach models only the 2020 data, but adjusts for confounding factors. The results indicated that the latter can better capture the lockdown effect. The measures taken to tackle the virus in Europe reduced the average surface concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 by 29.5% (95% Bayesian credible interval: 28.1%, 30.9%) and 25.9% (23.6%, 28.1%), respectively. To our knowledge, this research is the first to account for the spatio-temporal correlation present in the monitoring data during the pandemic and to assess how it affects estimation of the lockdown effect while accounting for confounding. The proposed methodology improves our understanding of the effect of COVID-19 lockdown policies on the air pollution burden across the continent. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image

Project description:Exposure to ambient air pollution, especially particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), are environmental risk factors for Alzheimer's disease and related dementia. The medial temporal lobe (MTL) is an important brain region subserving episodic memory that atrophies with age, during the Alzheimer's disease continuum, and is vulnerable to the effects of cerebrovascular disease. Despite the importance of air pollution it is unclear whether exposure leads to atrophy of the MTL and by what pathways. Here we conducted a longitudinal study examining associations between ambient air pollution exposure and MTL atrophy and whether putative air pollution exposure effects resembled Alzheimer's disease-related neurodegeneration or cerebrovascular disease-related neurodegeneration. Participants included older women (n = 627; aged 71-87) who underwent two structural brain MRI scans (MRI-1: 2005-6; MRI-2: 2009-10) as part of the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study of Magnetic Resonance Imaging. Regionalized universal kriging was used to estimate annual concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 at residential locations aggregated to 3-year averages prior to MRI-1. The outcome was 5-year standardized change in MTL volumes. Mediators included voxel-based MRI measures of the spatial pattern of neurodegeneration of Alzheimer's disease (Alzheimer's disease pattern similarity scores [AD-PS]) and whole-brain white matter small-vessel ischemic disease (WM-SVID) volume as a proxy of global cerebrovascular damage. Structural equation models were constructed to examine whether the associations between exposures with MTL atrophy were mediated by the initial level or concurrent change in AD-PS score or WM-SVID while adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, clinical characteristics, and intracranial volume. Living in locations with higher PM2.5 (per interquartile range [IQR]=3.17μg/m3) or NO2 (per IQR=6.63ppb) was associated with greater MTL atrophy (βPM2.5 = -0.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]=[-0.41,-0.18]; βNO2 =-0.12, 95%CI=[-0.23,-0.02]). Greater PM2.5 was associated with larger increases in AD-PS (βPM2.5 = 0.23, 95%CI=[0.12,0.33]) over time, which partially mediated associations with MTL atrophy (indirect effect= -0.10; 95%CI=[-0.15, -0.05]), explaining approximately 32% of the total effect. NO2 was positively associated with AD-PS at MRI-1 (βNO2=0.13, 95%CI=[0.03,0.24]), which partially mediated the association with MTL atrophy (indirect effect= -0.01, 95% CI=[-0.03,-0.001]). Global WM-SVID at MRI-1 or concurrent change were not significant mediators between exposures and MTL atrophy. Findings support the mediating role of Alzheimer's disease-related neurodegeneration contributing to MTL atrophy associated with late-life exposures to air pollutants. Alzheimer's disease-related neurodegeneration only partially explained associations between exposure and MTL atrophy suggesting the role of multiple neuropathological processes underlying air pollution neurotoxicity on brain aging.

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An Approach to the Estimation of Chronic Air Pollution Effects Using Spatio-Temporal Information.

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An Approach to the Estimation of Chronic Air Pollution Effects Using Spatio-Temporal Information.

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