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Quantification by qPCR of Pathobionts in Chronic Periodontitis: Development of Predictive Models of Disease Severity at Site-Specific Level.

ABSTRACT: Currently, there is little evidence available on the development of predictive models for the diagnosis or prognosis of chronic periodontitis based on the qPCR quantification of subgingival pathobionts. Our objectives were to: (1) analyze and internally validate pathobiont-based models that could be used to distinguish different periodontal conditions at site-specific level within the same patient with chronic periodontitis; (2) develop nomograms derived from predictive models. Subgingival plaque samples were obtained from control and periodontal sites (probing pocket depth and clinical attachment loss <4 mm and >4 mm, respectively) from 40 patients with moderate-severe generalized chronic periodontitis. The samples were analyzed by qPCR using TaqMan probes and specific primers to determine the concentrations of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans (Aa), Fusobacterium nucleatum (Fn), Parvimonas micra (Pm), Porphyromonas gingivalis (Pg), Prevotella intermedia (Pi), Tannerella forsythia (Tf), and Treponema denticola (Td). The pathobiont-based models were obtained using multivariate binary logistic regression. The best models were selected according to specified criteria. The discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and numerous classification measures were thus obtained. The nomograms were built based on the best predictive models. Eight bacterial cluster-based models showed an area under the curve (AUC) ?0.760 and a sensitivity and specificity ?75.0%. The PiTfFn cluster showed an AUC of 0.773 (sensitivity and specificity = 75.0%). When Pm and AaPm were incorporated in the TdPiTfFn cluster, we detected the two best predictive models with an AUC of 0.788 and 0.789, respectively (sensitivity and specificity = 77.5%). The TdPiTfAa cluster had an AUC of 0.785 (sensitivity and specificity = 75.0%). When Pm was incorporated in this cluster, a new predictive model appeared with better AUC and specificity values (0.787 and 80.0%, respectively). Distinct clusters formed by species with different etiopathogenic role (belonging to different Socransky's complexes) had a good predictive accuracy for distinguishing a site with periodontal destruction in a periodontal patient. The predictive clusters with the lowest number of bacteria were PiTfFn and TdPiTfAa, while TdPiTfAaFnPm had the highest number. In all the developed nomograms, high concentrations of these clusters were associated with an increased probability of having a periodontal site in a patient with chronic periodontitis.

SUBMITTER: Tomas I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5552702 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantification by qPCR of Pathobionts in Chronic Periodontitis: Development of Predictive Models of Disease Severity at Site-Specific Level.

Tomás Inmaculada I Regueira-Iglesias Alba A López Maria M Arias-Bujanda Nora N Novoa Lourdes L Balsa-Castro Carlos C Tomás Maria M

Frontiers in microbiology 20170809

Currently, there is little evidence available on the development of predictive models for the diagnosis or prognosis of chronic periodontitis based on the qPCR quantification of subgingival pathobionts. Our objectives were to: (1) analyze and internally validate pathobiont-based models that could be used to distinguish different periodontal conditions at site-specific level within the same patient with chronic periodontitis; (2) develop nomograms derived from predictive models. Subgingival plaqu ...[more]

PMID: 28848499

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Project description:BackgroundNew methods of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provide real-time alerts for hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, and rapid fluctuations of glucose levels, thereby improving glycemic control, which is especially crucial during meals and physical activity. However, complex CGM systems pose challenges for individuals with diabetes and healthcare professionals, particularly when interpreting rapid glucose level changes, dealing with sensor delays (approximately a 10 min difference between interstitial and plasma glucose readings), and addressing potential malfunctions. The development of advanced predictive glucose level classification models becomes imperative for optimizing insulin dosing and managing daily activities.MethodsThe aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of three different predictive models for the glucose level classification: (1) an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), (2) logistic regression, and (3) long short-term memory networks (LSTM). The performance of these models was evaluated in predicting hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dL), euglycemia (70-180 mg/dL), and hyperglycemia (>180 mg/dL) classes 15 min and 1 h ahead. More specifically, the confusion matrices were obtained and metrics such as precision, recall, and accuracy were computed for each model at each predictive horizon.ResultsAs expected, ARIMA underperformed the other models in predicting hyper- and hypoglycemia classes for both the 15 min and 1 h horizons. For the 15 min forecast horizon, the performance of logistic regression was the highest of all the models for all glycemia classes, with recall rates of 96% for hyper, 91% for norm, and 98% for hypoglycemia. For the 1 h forecast horizon, the LSTM model turned out to be the best for hyper- and hypoglycemia classes, achieving recall values of 85% and 87% respectively.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that different models may have varying strengths and weaknesses in predicting glucose level classes, and the choice of model should be carefully considered based on the specific requirements and context of the clinical application. The logistic regression model proved to be more accurate for the next 15 min, particularly in predicting hypoglycemia. However, the LSTM model outperformed logistic regression in predicting glucose level class for the next hour. Future research could explore hybrid models or ensemble approaches that combine the strengths of multiple models to further enhance the accuracy and reliability of glucose predictions.

Dataset Information

Quantification by qPCR of Pathobionts in Chronic Periodontitis: Development of Predictive Models of Disease Severity at Site-Specific Level.

Publications

Quantification by qPCR of Pathobionts in Chronic Periodontitis: Development of Predictive Models of Disease Severity at Site-Specific Level.

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