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Stratified polygenic risk prediction model with application to CAGI bipolar disorder sequencing data.

ABSTRACT: Genetic data consists of a wide range of marker types, including common, low-frequency, and rare variants. Multiple genetic markers and their interactions play central roles in the heritability of complex disease. In this study, we propose an algorithm that uses a stratified variable selection design by genetic architectures and interaction effects, achieved by a dataset-adaptive W-test. The polygenic sets in all strata were integrated to form a classification rule. The algorithm was applied to the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation 4 bipolar challenge sequencing data. The prediction accuracy was 60% using genetic markers on an independent test set. We found that epistasis among common genetic variants contributed most substantially to prediction precision. However, the sample size was not large enough to draw conclusions for the lack of predictability of low-frequency variants and their epistasis.

SUBMITTER: Wang MH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5561515 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stratified polygenic risk prediction model with application to CAGI bipolar disorder sequencing data.

Wang Maggie Haitian MH Chang Billy B Sun Rui R Hu Inchi I Xia Xiaoxuan X Wu William Ka Kei WKK Chong Ka Chun KC Zee Benny Chung-Ying BC

Human mutation 20170613 9

Genetic data consists of a wide range of marker types, including common, low-frequency, and rare variants. Multiple genetic markers and their interactions play central roles in the heritability of complex disease. In this study, we propose an algorithm that uses a stratified variable selection design by genetic architectures and interaction effects, achieved by a dataset-adaptive W-test. The polygenic sets in all strata were integrated to form a classification rule. The algorithm was applied to ...[more]

PMID: 28419606

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Project description:Family and genetic studies indicate overlapping liability for major depressive disorder and bipolar disorder. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether this shared genetic liability influences clinical presentation.A polygenic risk score for bipolar disorder, derived from a large genome-wide association meta-analysis, was generated for each subject of European-American ancestry (n = 1,274) in the Sequential Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression study (STAR*D) outpatient major depressive disorder cohort. A hypothesis-driven approach was used to test for association between bipolar disorder risk score and features of depression associated with bipolar disorder in the literature. Follow-up analyses were performed in two additional cohorts.A generalized linear mixed model including seven features hypothesized to be associated with bipolar spectrum illness was significantly associated with bipolar polygenic risk score [F = 2.07, degrees of freedom (df) = 7, p = 0.04]. Features included early onset, suicide attempt, recurrent depression, atypical depression, subclinical mania, subclinical psychosis, and severity. Post-hoc univariate analyses demonstrated that the major contributors to this omnibus association were onset of illness at age ? 18 years [odds ratio (OR) = 1.2, p = 0.003], history of suicide attempt (OR = 1.21, p = 0.03), and presence of at least one manic symptom (OR = 1.16, p = 0.02). The maximal variance in these traits explained by polygenic score ranged from 0.8% to 1.1%. However, analyses in two replication cohorts testing a five-feature model did not support this association.Bipolar genetic loading appeared to be associated with bipolar-like presentation in major depressive disorder in the primary analysis. However, the results were at most inconclusive because of lack of replication. Replication efforts were challenged by different ascertainment and assessment strategies in the different cohorts. The methodological approach described here may prove useful in applying genetic data to clarify psychiatric nosology in future studies.

Project description:ImportanceComplex disorders, such as bipolar disorder (BD), likely result from the influence of both common and rare susceptibility alleles. While common variation has been widely studied, rare variant discovery has only recently become feasible with next-generation sequencing.ObjectiveTo utilize a combined family-based and case-control approach to exome sequencing in BD using multiplex families as an initial discovery strategy, followed by association testing in a large case-control meta-analysis.Design, setting, and participantsWe performed exome sequencing of 36 affected members with BD from 8 multiplex families and tested rare, segregating variants in 3 independent case-control samples consisting of 3541 BD cases and 4774 controls.Main outcomes and measuresWe used penalized logistic regression and 1-sided gene-burden analyses to test for association of rare, segregating damaging variants with BD. Permutation-based analyses were performed to test for overall enrichment with previously identified gene sets.ResultsWe found 84 rare (frequency <1%), segregating variants that were bioinformatically predicted to be damaging. These variants were found in 82 genes that were enriched for gene sets previously identified in de novo studies of autism (19 observed vs. 10.9 expected, P = .0066) and schizophrenia (11 observed vs. 5.1 expected, P = .0062) and for targets of the fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP) pathway (10 observed vs. 4.4 expected, P = .0076). The case-control meta-analyses yielded 19 genes that were nominally associated with BD based either on individual variants or a gene-burden approach. Although no gene was individually significant after correction for multiple testing, this group of genes continued to show evidence for significant enrichment of de novo autism genes (6 observed vs 2.6 expected, P = .028).Conclusions and relevanceOur results are consistent with the presence of prominent locus and allelic heterogeneity in BD and suggest that very large samples will be required to definitively identify individual rare variants or genes conferring risk for this disorder. However, we also identify significant associations with gene sets composed of previously discovered de novo variants in autism and schizophrenia, as well as targets of the FRMP pathway, providing preliminary support for the overlap of potential autism and schizophrenia risk genes with rare, segregating variants in families with BD.

Dataset Information

Stratified polygenic risk prediction model with application to CAGI bipolar disorder sequencing data.

Publications

Stratified polygenic risk prediction model with application to CAGI bipolar disorder sequencing data.

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