Dataset Information

Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

ABSTRACT: Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle and its variant A. altissima var. Qiantouchun are notorious invasive weeds. Two weevils, Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (ESC) and E. brandti (EBR) are considered as candidates for biological control of A. altissima. The aim of this study was to model the potential distributions of ESC and EBR using CLIMEX 4.0. The projected potential distributions of ESC and EBR included almost all current distribution areas of A. altissima, except Southeast Asia. Under historical climate, potential distribution area of EBR is larger than that of ESC, 46.67?×?10⁶?km² and 35.65?×?10⁶?km², respectively. For both ESC and EBR, climate change expanded the northern boundary of potential distributions northward approximately 600?km by the middle of 21st century, and 1000?km by the end of 21st century under RCP 8.5. However, the suitable range decreased to the south in the Southern Hemisphere because of heat stress. The modelled potential distributions of ESC and EBR in the United States demonstrated that the climate was suitable for both weevils. Therefore, considering only climate suitability, both ESC and EBR can be considered as potential biological control agents against A. altissima with some confidence that climatic conditions are likely suitable.

SUBMITTER: Ji Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5567332 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

Ji Yingchao Y Luo Wen W Zhang Ganyu G Wen Junbao J

Scientific reports 20170822 1

Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle and its variant A. altissima var. Qiantouchun are notorious invasive weeds. Two weevils, Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (ESC) and E. brandti (EBR) are considered as candidates for biological control of A. altissima. The aim of this study was to model the potential distributions of ESC and EBR using CLIMEX 4.0. The projected potential distributions of ESC and EBR included almost all current distribution areas of A. altissima, except Southeast Asia. Under histo ...[more]

PMID: 28831145

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Project description:Climate change poses certain threats to the World's forests. That is, tree performance declines if species-specific, climatic thresholds are surpassed. Prominent climatic changes negatively affecting tree performance are mainly associated with so-called hotter droughts. In combination with biotic pathogens, hotter droughts cause a higher tree vulnerability and thus mortality. As a consequence, global forests are expected to undergo vast changes in the course of climate change. Changed climatic conditions may on the one hand locally result in more frequent dieback of a particular tree species but on the other hand allow other-locally yet absent species-to establish themselves, thereby potentially changing local tree-species diversity. Although several studies provide valuable insights into potential risks of prominent European tree species, we yet lack a comprehensive assessment on how and to which extent the composition of European forests may change. To overcome this research gap, we here project future tree-species compositions of European forests. We combine the concept of climate analogs with national forest inventory data to project the tree-species composition for the 26 most important European tree species at any given location in Europe for the period 2061-2090 and the two most relevant CMIP5 scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Our results indicate significant changes in European forests species compositions. Species richness generally declined in the Mediterranean and Central European lowlands, while Scandinavian and Central European high-elevation forests were projected an increasing diversity. Moreover, 76% (RCP 4.5) and 80% (RCP 8.5) of the investigated locations indicated a decreasing abundance of the locally yet most abundant tree species while 74 and 68% were projected an increasing tree-species diversity. Altogether, our study confirms the expectation of European forests undergoing remarkable changes until the end of the 21st century (i.e., 2061-2090) and provides a scientific basement for climate change adaptation with important implications for forestry and nature conservation.

Dataset Information

Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

Publications

Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

Similar Datasets

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