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Projecting Tree Species Composition Changes of European Forests for 2061-2090 Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Climate change poses certain threats to the World's forests. That is, tree performance declines if species-specific, climatic thresholds are surpassed. Prominent climatic changes negatively affecting tree performance are mainly associated with so-called hotter droughts. In combination with biotic pathogens, hotter droughts cause a higher tree vulnerability and thus mortality. As a consequence, global forests are expected to undergo vast changes in the course of climate change. Changed climatic conditions may on the one hand locally result in more frequent dieback of a particular tree species but on the other hand allow other-locally yet absent species-to establish themselves, thereby potentially changing local tree-species diversity. Although several studies provide valuable insights into potential risks of prominent European tree species, we yet lack a comprehensive assessment on how and to which extent the composition of European forests may change. To overcome this research gap, we here project future tree-species compositions of European forests. We combine the concept of climate analogs with national forest inventory data to project the tree-species composition for the 26 most important European tree species at any given location in Europe for the period 2061-2090 and the two most relevant CMIP5 scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Our results indicate significant changes in European forests species compositions. Species richness generally declined in the Mediterranean and Central European lowlands, while Scandinavian and Central European high-elevation forests were projected an increasing diversity. Moreover, 76% (RCP 4.5) and 80% (RCP 8.5) of the investigated locations indicated a decreasing abundance of the locally yet most abundant tree species while 74 and 68% were projected an increasing tree-species diversity. Altogether, our study confirms the expectation of European forests undergoing remarkable changes until the end of the 21st century (i.e., 2061-2090) and provides a scientific basement for climate change adaptation with important implications for forestry and nature conservation.

SUBMITTER: Buras A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6337730 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. METHODS:Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. RESULTS:Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. CONCLUSIONS:Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.

Project description:Depending on their tree species composition, forests recruit different soil microbial communities. Likewise, the vertical nutrient gradient along soil profiles impacts these communities and their activities. In forest soils, bacteria and fungi commonly compete, coexist, and interact, which is challenging for understanding the complex mechanisms behind microbial structuring. Using amplicon sequencing, we analyzed bacterial and fungal diversity in relation to forest composition and soil depth. Moreover, employing random forest models, we identified microbial indicator taxa of forest plots composed of either deciduous or evergreen trees, or their mixtures, as well as of three soil depths. We expected that forest composition and soil depth affect bacterial and fungal diversity and community structure differently. Indeed, relative abundances of microbial communities changed more across soil depths than in relation to forest composition. The microbial Shannon diversity was particularly affected by soil depth and by the proportion of evergreen trees. Our results also reflected that bacterial communities are primarily shaped by soil depth, while fungi were influenced by forest tree species composition. An increasing proportion of evergreen trees did not provoke differences in main bacterial metabolic functions, e.g., carbon fixation, degradation, or photosynthesis. However, significant responses related to specialized bacterial metabolisms were detected. Saprotrophic, arbuscular mycorrhizal, and plant pathogenic fungi were related to the proportion of evergreen trees, particularly in topsoil. Prominent microbial indicator taxa in the deciduous forests were characterized to be r-strategists, whereas K-strategists dominated evergreen plots. Considering simultaneously forest composition and soil depth to unravel differences in microbial communities, metabolic pathways and functional guilds have the potential to enlighten mechanisms that maintain forest soil functionality and provide resistance against disturbances.

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Projecting Tree Species Composition Changes of European Forests for 2061-2090 Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios.

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