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Biased phylodynamic inferences from analysing clusters of viral sequences.

ABSTRACT: Phylogenetic methods are being increasingly used to help understand the transmission dynamics of measurably evolving viruses, including HIV. Clusters of highly similar sequences are often observed, which appear to follow a 'power law' behaviour, with a small number of very large clusters. These clusters may help to identify subpopulations in an epidemic, and inform where intervention strategies should be implemented. However, clustering of samples does not necessarily imply the presence of a subpopulation with high transmission rates, as groups of closely related viruses can also occur due to non-epidemiological effects such as over-sampling. It is important to ensure that observed phylogenetic clustering reflects true heterogeneity in the transmitting population, and is not being driven by non-epidemiological effects. We qualify the effect of using a falsely identified 'transmission cluster' of sequences to estimate phylodynamic parameters including the effective population size and exponential growth rate under several demographic scenarios. Our simulation studies show that taking the maximum size cluster to re-estimate parameters from trees simulated under a randomly mixing, constant population size coalescent process systematically underestimates the overall effective population size. In addition, the transmission cluster wrongly resembles an exponential or logistic growth model 99% of the time. We also illustrate the consequences of false clusters in exponentially growing coalescent and birth-death trees, where again, the growth rate is skewed upwards. This has clear implications for identifying clusters in large viral databases, where a false cluster could result in wasted intervention resources.

SUBMITTER: Dearlove BL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5570026 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Biased phylodynamic inferences from analysing clusters of viral sequences.

Dearlove Bethany L BL Xiang Fei F Frost Simon D W SDW

Virus evolution 20170701 2

Phylogenetic methods are being increasingly used to help understand the transmission dynamics of measurably evolving viruses, including HIV. Clusters of highly similar sequences are often observed, which appear to follow a 'power law' behaviour, with a small number of very large clusters. These clusters may help to identify subpopulations in an epidemic, and inform where intervention strategies should be implemented. However, clustering of samples does not necessarily imply the presence of a sub ...[more]

PMID: 28852573

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Project description:BackgroundAnimal societies are diverse, ranging from small family-based groups to extraordinarily large social networks in which many unrelated individuals interact. At the extreme of this continuum, some ant species form unicolonial populations in which workers and queens can move among multiple interconnected nests without eliciting aggression. Although unicoloniality has been mostly studied in invasive ants, it also occurs in some native non-invasive species. Unicoloniality is commonly associated with very high queen number, which may result in levels of relatedness among nestmates being so low as to raise the question of the maintenance of altruism by kin selection in such systems. However, the actual relatedness among cooperating individuals critically depends on effective dispersal and the ensuing pattern of genetic structuring. In order to better understand the evolution of unicoloniality in native non-invasive ants, we investigated the fine-scale population genetic structure and gene flow in three unicolonial populations of the wood ant F. paralugubris.ResultsThe analysis of geo-referenced microsatellite genotypes and mitochondrial haplotypes revealed the presence of cryptic clusters of genetically-differentiated nests in the three populations of F. paralugubris. Because of this spatial genetic heterogeneity, members of the same clusters were moderately but significantly related. The comparison of nuclear (microsatellite) and mitochondrial differentiation indicated that effective gene flow was male-biased in all populations.ConclusionThe three unicolonial populations exhibited male-biased and mostly local gene flow. The high number of queens per nest, exchanges among neighbouring nests and restricted long-distance gene flow resulted in large clusters of genetically similar nests. The positive relatedness among clustermates suggests that kin selection may still contribute to the maintenance of altruism in unicolonial populations if competition occurs among clusters.

Project description:Despite the importance of viral strains/variants as agents of emerging diseases, genetic and evolutionary processes affecting their ecology are not fully understood. To get insight into this topic, we assessed the population and spatial dynamic parameters of citrus leprosis virus C (CiLV-C, genus Cilevirus, family Kitaviridae). CiLV-C is the etiological agent of citrus leprosis disease, a non-systemic infection considered the main viral disorder affecting citrus orchards in Brazil. Overall, we obtained 18 complete or near-complete viral genomes, 123 complete nucleotide sequences of the open reading frame (ORF) encoding the putative coat protein, and 204 partial nucleotide sequences of the ORF encoding the movement protein, from 430 infected Citrus spp. samples collected between 1932 and 2020. A thorough examination of the collected dataset suggested that the CiLV-C population consists of the major lineages CRD and SJP, unevenly distributed, plus a third one called ASU identified in this work, which is represented by a single isolate found in an herbarium sample collected in Asuncion, Paraguay, in 1937. Viruses from the three lineages share about 85% nucleotide sequence identity and show signs of inter-clade recombination events. Members of the lineage CRD were identified both in commercial and non-commercial citrus orchards. However, those of the lineages SJP were exclusively detected in samples collected in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, the leading Brazilian citrus production region, after 2015. The most recent common ancestor of viruses of the three lineages dates back to, at least, ∼1500 years ago. Since citrus plants were introduced in the Americas by the Portuguese around the 1520s, the Bayesian phylodynamic analysis suggested that the ancestors of the main CiLV-C lineages likely originated in contact with native vegetation of South America. The intensive expansion of CRD and SJP lineages in Brazil started probably linked to the beginning of the local citrus industry. The high prevalence of CiLV-C in the citrus belt of Brazil likely ensues from the intensive connectivity between orchards, which represents a potential risk toward pathogen saturation across the region.

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Biased phylodynamic inferences from analysing clusters of viral sequences.

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Biased phylodynamic inferences from analysing clusters of viral sequences.

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