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Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters.

ABSTRACT: For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low EIP in Kerala (8-15 days at 30.8 and 23.4?°C) and a generally slower/high EIP in Punjab (5.6-96.5 days at 35 and 0?°C) were simulated with daily temperatures. EIPs were calculated for different seasons, and Kerala showed the lowest EIP during the monsoon period. In addition, a significant association between dengue cases and precipitation was also observed. The results suggest that temperature is important in virus development in different climatic regions and may be useful in understanding spatio-temporal variations in dengue risk. Climate-based disease forecasting models in India should be refined and tailored for different climatic zones, instead of use of a standard model.

SUBMITTER: Mutheneni SR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5583666 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters.

Mutheneni Srinivasa Rao SR Morse Andrew P AP Caminade Cyril C Upadhyayula Suryanaryana Murty SM

Emerging microbes & infections 20170809 8

For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low ...[more]

PMID: 28790459

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Project description:Rapid urban expansion has important health implications. This study examines trends and inequalities in undernutrition and overnutrition by gender, residence (rural, urban slum, urban non-slum), and wealth among children and adults in India. We used National Family Health Survey data from 2006 and 2016 (n = 311,182 children 0-5y and 972,192 adults 15-54y in total). We calculated differences, slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index to examine changes over time and inequalities in outcomes by gender, residence, and wealth quintile. Between 2006 and 2016, child stunting prevalence dropped from 48% to 38%, with no gender differences in trends, whereas child overweight/obesity remained at ~7-8%. In both years, stunting prevalence was higher in rural and urban slum households compared to urban non-slum households. Within-residence, wealth inequalities were large for stunting (SII: -33 to -19 percentage points, pp) and declined over time only in urban non-slum households. Among adults, underweight prevalence decreased by ~13 pp but overweight/obesity doubled (10% to 21%) between 2006 and 2016. Rises in overweight/obesity among women were greater in rural and urban slum than urban non-slum households. Within-residence, wealth inequalities were large for both underweight (SII -35 to -12pp) and overweight/obesity (+16 to +29pp) for adults, with the former being more concentrated among poorer households and the latter among wealthier households. In conclusion, India experienced a rapid decline in child and adult undernutrition between 2006 and 2016 across genders and areas of residence. Of great concern, however, is the doubling of adult overweight/obesity in all areas during this period and the rise in wealth inequalities in both rural and urban slum households. With the second largest urban population globally, India needs to aggressively tackle the multiple burdens of malnutrition, especially among rural and urban slum households and develop actions to maintain trends in undernutrition reduction without exacerbating the rapidly rising problems of overweight/obesity.

Project description:BackgroundDengue has become one of the major vector-borne diseases, which has been an important public health concern. We aimed to estimate the disease burden of dengue in major endemic regions from 1990 to 2019, and explore the impact pattern of the socioeconomic factors on the burden of dengue based on the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2019 (GBD 2019).MethodsUsing the analytical strategies and data from the GBD 2019, we described the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of dengue in major endemic regions from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, we estimated the correlation between dengue burden and socioeconomic factors, and then established an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the epidemic trends of dengue in endemic regions. All estimates were proposed as numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs). The ASRs of dengue incidence were compared geographically and five regions were stratified by a sociodemographic index (SDI).ResultsA significant rise was observed on a global scale between 1990 and 2019, with the overall age-standardized rate (ASR) increasing from 557.15 (95% UI 243.32-1212.53) per 100,000 in 1990 to 740.4 (95% UI 478.2-1323.1) per 100,000 in 2019. In 2019, the Oceania region had the highest age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 population (3173.48 (95% UI 762.33-6161.18)), followed by the South Asia region (1740.79 (95% UI 660.93-4287.12)), and then the Southeast Asia region (1153.57 (95% UI 1049.49-1281.59)). In Oceania, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, increase trends were found in the burden of dengue fever measured by ASRs of DALY which were consistent with ASRs of dengue incidence at the national level. Most of the countries with the heaviest burden of dengue fever occurred in areas with low and medium SDI regions. However, the burden in high-middle and high-SDI countries is relatively low, especially the Solomon Islands and Tonga in Oceania, the Maldives in South Asia and Indonesia in Southeast Asia. The age distribution results of the incidence rate and disease burden of dengue fever of major endemic regions showed that the higher risk and disease burden are mainly concentrated in people under 14 or over 70 years old. The prediction by ARIMA showed that the risk of dengue fever in South and Southeast Asia is on the rise, and further prevention and control is warranted.ConclusionsIn view of the rapid population growth and urbanization in many dengue-endemic countries, our research results are of great significance for presenting the future trend in dengue fever. It is recommended to policy makers that specific attention needs to be paid to the negative impact of urbanization on dengue incidence and allocate more resources to the low-SDI areas and people under 14 or over 70 years old to reduce the burden of dengue fever.

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Dataset Information

Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters.

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Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters.

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